How did Florida’s 2018 recruiting class pan out in retrospect?

Dan Mullen’s transition class in 2018 landed at 14th in the re-rank from The Athletic. Billy Napier’s transition class at UL the same year? 10th.

Gators coach Billy Napier just finished up his first recruiting class at the University of Florida. Though the class ranks just 16th nationally, per 247Sports, that’s a vast improvement from the No. 76 spot it occupied when Napier took over.

He did a fine job in a transition class, which are notoriously difficult to fill as coaches are well behind the curve in terms of building relationships with prospects.

It wasn’t too long ago that Florida was last in this position. You just have to go back to 2018, when previous coach Dan Mullen finished his first class at UF. To gauge expectations for this year’s class, it could be helpful to look at what the 2018 group did as a benchmark.

We’re in luck, as The Athletic recently published a re-rank of the 2018 recruiting class based on the following criteria for each player.

5 points: All-American, award winner, top-50 NFL Draft pick
4: Multiyear starter, all-conference honors
3: One-year starter or key reserve
2: Career backup
0: Minor or no contribution, left the program

Based on those guidelines, Florida’s class didn’t see a change at all. It ranked a respectable 14th with players like Kyle Pitts, Van Jefferson (a transfer from Ole Miss), Evan McPherson, Jacob Copeland and Emory Jones headlining the group.

Adjusted average: 2.62
Class rank in 2018: 14th
Four-year record: 35-16
Attrition: 45%

When Pitts made his decision in the summer of 2017, the four-star recruit announced his Florida pledge on a roller-coaster ride.
Three months later, the head coach to whom he committed was abruptly fired. Dan Mullen replaced Jim McElwain and Pitts stuck to his pledge. Fortunately, the future All-American and Pro Bowler was able to get off the ride before it got rough.

Mullen inherited Pitts, Gouraige, Pierce and some solid players in the class. He and his staff made some big splashes by flipping quarterback Emory Jones away from Ohio State and upgrading at wide receiver with Jacob Copeland and touted transfers Jefferson and Trevon Grimes. They helped the program win a lot of games in their first three seasons together before the Gators slid in 2021. Ten members of the class ended up leaving the program, which is not uncommon for a transition class. But it’s probably worth noting that among the 2018 signees who’ve become full-time starters, only one (cornerback Trey Dean III) plays on defense.

The recruiting inconsistencies on defense clearly caught up with the Gators this season, and a nearly 50% attrition rate is less than ideal. Mullen got a nice jolt of talent into the program on offense to start off, and he rode that to three consecutive New Year’s Six Bowls. But he wasn’t able to maintain it, and that’s why this program now has a new head coach.

While a top-15 finish in a transition class is nothing to scoff at, it’s worth noting that Napier’s 2018 class at Louisiana was also a transition class. At the time, it ranked just 105th nationally and wasn’t even a blip on anyone’s radar.

However, that class went 41-12 over the next four years, and in hindsight, The Athletic ranked it all the way up at No. 10 — four spots higher than Mullen’s transition class.

This should give Florida fans optimism that this year’s class may overachieve, but as is always the case with recruiting, only time will tell just how impactful this year’s haul of players will be, especially in the age of the transfer portal.

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