The Philadelphia Phillies (6-3) face the New York Mets (2-3) in Game 2 of Tuesday’s seven-inning doubleheader at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Monday’s opener of the Phillies-Mets series was rained, forcing a doubleheader Tuesday with Game 1 set for 4:10 p.m. ET.
Season series: Phillies 2-1
RHP Aaron Nola (0-0) makes his third start for the Phillies.
Nola got a no-decision in Philadelphia’s 8-2 victory over New York Wednesday. He pitched four innings, giving up one earned run on six hits and two walks with five strikeouts.
Through two starts, Nola has gone 10 2/3 IP with a 2.53 ERA and 1.31 WHIP with 9.3 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9.
- 2020 vs. Mets: 1-1 with a 4.08 ERA (17 2/3 IP, 8 ER, 16 H), 25 K and 8 BB in 3 starts
- Career vs. Mets: 8-2 with a 3.26 ERA (99 1/3 IP, 36 ER, 81 H), 119 K and 36 BB over 17 starts
RHP Marcus Stroman (1-0) is on the rubber for the Mets. Stroman picked up a win in his first start since 2019 against the Phillies April 6.
It was a quality start for Stroman who went six innings, striking out three and only allowing one earned run on three hits and two walks.
- Career vs. Phillies: 3-1 with a 3.16 ERA (25 2/3 IP, 9 ER, 27 H), 23 K and 5 BB across 6 appearances, including 4 starts
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Phillies at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:16 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Phillies -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Mets +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
- Against the spread/ATS: Phillies -1.5 (+150) | Mets +1.5 (-185)
- Over/Under: 5.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)
Prediction
Phillies 4, Mets 2
Money line (ML)
There are a couple of reasons why I like Philly in this spot, but let’s wait a little closer to the first pitch in hopes of getting a better price than PHILLIES (-135).
We have the “fade the market” angle because, according to Pregame.com, slightly more money and bets are on the Mets in this spot, which has caused bookmakers to make the Phillies cheaper.
While technically Stroman had a quality start last week vs. the Phillies, when you dig a little deeper, there’s reason to think Philly can get to Stroman.
Stroman had a 55.6% hard-hit rate vs. the Phillies but just a .118 BABIP last week, which indicates Stroman’s pitches were smoked right at Mets fielders.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Phillies -1.5 (+150), but this only being a seven-inning game is the reason for laying off the run line.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 5.5 (+100) for a quarter unit.
The Phillies hitters should have more success against Stroman in this outing, Philadelphia has gone Over in four straight second games of a doubleheader and the past five Phillies-Mets games have gone Over the total.
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