The Boston Red Sox (59-38) host the New York Yankees (50-45) for the second game of their four-game series at Fenway Park Friday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Yankees vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Red Sox lead 8-2.
RHP Gerritt Cole is New York’s projected starter. He is 10-4 with a 2.63 ERA (120 IP, 35 ER), 0.94 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 11.9 K/9 over 19 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 3-1, with 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 11 K Saturday against the Red Sox.
- Cole is 1-1 against Boston this year with a 4.91 ERA (11 IP, 6 ER), 13 H, 4 BB and 17 K through two starts.
- vs. Red Sox on the current roster (131 PA): 3.96 FIP with a .235 batting average (BA), .306 wOBA, .456 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 31.3 K% and 92.7 mph exit velocity (EV)
LHP Eduardo Rodriguez makes his 19th start for the Red Sox. Rodriguez is 7-5 with a 5.19 ERA (95 1/3 IP, 55 ER), 1.33 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 this season.
- Last outing: Win, 4-0, with 5 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 2 BB and 8 K against New York last Friday.
- Rodriguez is 2-0 against the Yankees with a 2.65 ERA (17 IP, 5 ER), 12 H, 3 BB and 23 K over three starts this season.
- vs. Yankees on the current roster (145 PA): 5.55 FIP with a .230 BA, .338 wOBA, .488 xSLG, 24.8 K% and 91.1 mph EV.
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Yankees at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:30 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Yankees -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Red Sox -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Yankees -1.5 (+150) | Red Sox +1.5 (-185)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Yankees 4, Red Sox 1
Money line (ML)
GIMME the YANKEES (-110) because Cole has bounced back from a couple of rough outings following MLB’s crackdown on pitchers using foreign substances to better grip the ball.
Over his last two starts against the Red Sox and Houston Astros, Cole has allowed just 1 earned run over 15 frames with 23 total strikeouts.
Both of those starts were technically complete-game efforts since the Yankees-Red Sox meeting July 17 was called after the sixth inning due to rain.
Cole’s 129-pitch CG victory over the Astros July 10 was one of the best outings for any starter this year and Cole looks ready to take the challenge of getting the Yankees back into the playoff race.
Also, while Rodriguez has pitched well against New York this year, the Yankees have hit him well and typically lefties don’t fair well against right-handed power hitters at Fenway Park.
New York is still missing OF Aaron Judge but it has enough power-hitting righties to drill Rodriguez if he’s not on-point Friday.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because the Yankees have the second-worst cover rate in the majors against divisional foes this season with the second-worst run line margin.
The Red Sox are 22-15 ATS against AL East opponents.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-105) for a tiny wager because of Cole’s recent performance, Rodriguez giving up only 5 earned runs over three starts against the Yankees this season and both bullpens are elite.
Plus, the Under is 3-0-1 over the last four Yankees-Red Sox meetings and New York is 8-11 O/U this year in games Cole starts.
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