The Buffalo Bills pass offense has been one of the most electric in the NFL the last 2 seasons with QB Josh Allen being an MVP candidate. Although tight end Dawson Knox hasn’t received the type of consistently high-target counts elite tight ends routinely receive, he has become one of the most dangerous red zone tight ends in the league.
Below, we look at Dawson Knox’s 2022 fantasy football average draft position (ADP) and where you should draft him.
Knox emerged in his 3rd season as a key piece in Buffalo’s offense. In his first 2 seasons (27 games), he caught 52 passes for 676 yards and 5 touchdowns – the kind of numbers that keep you on the fantasy waiver wire. Last season, in 15 games, he caught 49 passes for 587 and 9 TDs – the kind of production that not only keeps you on fantasy rosters, but keeps you in starting lineups.
Dawson Knox’s ADP: 104.45
(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com; last updated at time of this publishing – ADPs continually change as more drafts occur)
Once you get past the top handful of tight ends, the ADP numbers get more widely spread apart among fantasy TEs. Knox is still viewed as a low-end TE1 (about 10th among tight ends), finding his ADP numbers behind Zach Ertz (Arizona Cardinals) at 99.50 and a round or more ahead of Mike Gesicki (Miami Dolphins) at 112.89 and Pat Freiermuth (Pittsburgh Steelers) at 120.45.
There doesn’t seem to be much of an argument that Knox is clearly slotted in his position as a low-end TE1 and should be drafted accordingly by fantasy owners who hold off in locking in a tight end to their rosters.
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Dawson Knox’s 2021 stats
Games: 15
Receptions | targets: 49 | 71
Receiving yards: 587
Receiving touchdowns: 9
Where should you draft Knox?
There have been many tight ends over the years that have made their fantasy careers by being touchdown scorers in close – Green Bay’s Robert Tonyan and Knox being the most recent. There is an inherent danger in that because, when they don’t score, averaging just 3 or 4 receptions a game for 40 or so yards doesn’t cut it.
Knox emerged as a 3-down tight end last season – he was on the field for 87 percent of Buffalo’s offensive snaps – so there is the potential that his target share will increase, but expecting 9 TDs again this season is asking a lot.
The hope is that an increase in opportunities to get more receptions and yards make him a strong fantasy tight end for those who didn’t jump early to lock down one of the top guys. Paired up with another tight end, he can be a matchup-based fantasy play that can provide solid, consistent production.
The great quarterbacks find a way to get their top receivers paid and Allen will do what he can to get that done for Knox this season. Given Knox’s mid-level ADP number, those who took Allen early will have the opportunity to double down and pair him with Knox.
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