Last week’s ugly loss to the New Orleans Saints left many Falcons fans skeptical about quarterback Matt Ryan’s longevity in Atlanta. The consensus around the league is that the offensive line bears most of the blame, but Ryan isn’t completely innocent here, either.
The Falcons QB has been displaying some concerning tendencies all season long and although his legacy remains untouched, his level of play is on a visible decline.
Yes, Ryan still produces. He’s third in the league in total passing yards. He can still manage to grade highly and put up good numbers. But does it matter? Not really. He realistically could’ve thrown 60 passes on Sunday for 500 yards and the Falcons probably still lose because Ryan’s athletic profile limits his efficiency upside.
Every 10-yard play is negated by him taking a 12-yard sack the very next play due to his inability to escape an internal pocket collapse. The counterargument is that it’s unfair to put that on Ryan when it’s the responsibility of the offensive line to keep him out of that position, but the flip side says that quarterbacks like Ben Roethlisberger of the Steelers, Deshaun Watson of the Texans, and Josh Allen in Buffalo are getting it done with their offensive lines ranking in the bottom ten in overall efficiency.
The poor play of the offensive line shouldn’t be a mask to the idea that Matt Ryan continues to display the pocket presence of a late-round rookie. If you look at some of the best quarterbacks in the league, including Pat Mahomes, Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson, you’ll notice each has a combination of athleticism, mobility and arm strength.
How many of those traits does Matt Ryan have today? I’d argue maybe arm strength, and he barely can push the ball down the field. And so, given the circumstances and the team’s current draft spot, is a new QB completely out of question? I’d say absolutely not. Ryan can certainly still play, but looking forward, I struggle to envision Ryan playing at a consistently high level. The NFL is a league that’s gravitating towards a defensive system of effective pass rush and a strong secondary.
Athletes like Brian Burns and T.J. Watt are the new type of pass rusher and that prototype is making it extremely tough for non-mobile quarterbacks to survive. If the offensive line loses the initial snap battle, a pocket passer who struggles to escape pressure is bound to lose yards. A quarterback that cannot scramble and move the compass laterally and horizontally will not be able to efficiently win games nowadays.
Another factor that’s important to keep in mind is how much longer does Ryan want to play?
The Falcons are consistently losing games. Ryan is getting eaten alive by divisional rivals possession by possession. A new regime of coaching is entering the picture as well. Is Ryan likely to be Atlanta’s starting quarterback in five years? I don’t think anybody can answer that question with confidence, and that is the problem.
A new head coach being imminent is not a topic to ignore when considering the roster outlook for next season and beyond. Will they decide to ride the pine of Matt Ryan or will they draft a new QB? If I was a betting man, I’d put a 75 percent chance on the new Falcons regime drafting his successor.
Now, to emphasize, this article isn’t a bash Matt Ryan report. I think he’s still good at his job. I also think a clear regression is in effect. With the way NFL defensive lines are growing and defensive coaches trending towards five and six man blitz packages, you must have a quarterback with sufficient mobility, and at this point, I think those days have passed for No. 2.
Given Arthur Blank’s dedication to loyalty, Ryan may be the team’s starting quarterback until he’s unable to run anymore, but in all reality, I’d imagine the new head coach and general manager are interviewing under the assumption that roster control is completely in their hands. And what that means is that a young, mobile quarterback is likely in Atlanta’s future plans.
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