Top-ranked daily fantasy sports pro Jason Mezrahi, founder and CEO of WinDailySports.com, breaks down his favorite DFS plays at various salary ranges for Week 12 of the NFL season.
Even though we have had great results in picking top DFS plays in this article every week, I’m going to let you in on a little secret: Our projection model at WinDailySports.com has been firing on all cylinders so what I will do in this article is list some of our highest projected players based off raw points and our highest point per dollar plays based on DraftKings and FanDuel pricing.
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These are some of the players Jason will be locking in his lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel for this weekend’s slate.
QUARTERBACKS
JOSH ALLEN, BUF
$7,600 DRAFTKINGS, $8,600 FANDUEL
This game in Buffalo will be a shootout and you want as much exposure as possible to this game. This game has an over under of 53 and comes in tied for the second highest total with the Raiders vs Falcons game and slightly behind the Chiefs vs Buccaneers.
Allen is coming off a bye week and two strong performances. The floor that Allen provides due to his running upside is elite and the matchup versus the 28th ranked team at defending the quarterback provides the upside we need. The Chargers offense moves at a fast pace and their defense loves to give up points so lock up Allen in Week 12.
JUSTIN HERBERT, LAC
$7,200 DRAFTKINGS, $8,400 FANDUEL
This kid is not good but great! I watched a bunch of last week’s game versus the Jets and Herbert made throws quarterbacks in the league for 5+ years don’t have the confidence, vision and arm strength to make. I know it’s too early to say this, but he reminds me of Aaron Rodgers.
Herbert has been great all season and is averaging 26.7 points a game with 2,699 passing yards through his first 9 games as a professional. The consistency, the fair price, and the matchup versus the 31st ranked defense against the quarterback is all I need to lock him up. Pair him up with some of the pass catchers below to complete the stack in Week 12.
RUNNING BACKS
DALVIN COOK, MIN
$9,500 DRAFTKINGS, $11,000 FANDUEL
If you can afford the price tag for the consistency and upside that Dalvin Cook brings go ahead and play him. It will be tough to squeeze him in on FanDuel, so I will be fading him for Nick Chubb and some other value backs. But I will try my best to get him on DraftKings for cash games and some tournaments.
Cook is coming off 27 and 30 rush attempt games and nobody in the league is getting the volume he is. He is also active in the pass game and is a dual threat any time he steps onto the field. On top of all that, the matchup versus Carolina is amazing. The Panthers have trouble defending the run and this won’t change in Week 12 versus the Vikings.
WAYNE GALLMAN, NYG
$5,000 DRAFTKINGS, $5,700 FANDUEL
I truly never thought the day would come where I am writing up Wayne Gallman, but its 2020 so expect the unexpected. When you score 5 touchdowns in the last 4 games you have to take notice. At a $5,000 price tag on DraftKings in a matchup against the ailing Bengals its going to be a tough fade. Not to mention the Giants are in the playoff hunt in the putrid NFC East.
This is a must-win spot for the Giants, they are facing a backup quarterback, and the game script should be in Gallman’s benefit. If ownership gets high on Gallman, look for pivots like Drake, Ballage, Bernard and Hunt for tournaments.
WIDE RECEIVERS
KEENAN ALLEN, LAC
$7,300 DRAFTKINGS, $7,400 FANDUEL
Keenan Allen has transitioned perfectly from Rivers to Herbert and hasn’t missed a beat. The rapport is there and it’s not shocking that Herbert is forcing the ball to Allen. Ever since the Chargers were forced to make the swap to Herbert, Allen’s numbers have gone up. Coming off a monster 16-catch, 145-yard performance in Week 11, he draws what could be a tougher matchup in Week 12.
Does good offense beat good defense? It did when Deandre Hopkins faced off against the Bills, Cooper Kupp also had a big game versus the Bills earlier in the season. So here is my take, have exposure to all 3 top Chargers receivers. In my Chargers stacks I will probably have 50% Allen, 25% Williams, and 25% Henry. I will also have some lineups with 2 receivers combined with Herbert and the same thing goes for my Allen stacks.
STEFON DIGGS, HOU
$7,600 DRAFTKINGS, $5,700 FANDUEL
Stefon Diggs has exceeded expectations in Buffalo alongside Josh Allen. There have been question marks about what to expect from Allen throwing the ball in general and specifically to Diggs due to accuracy problems. The haters have been hushed and from a numbers perspective one could argue that Diggs is inside the top 5 receiver category.
On paper this could look like another tough individual matchup, but when I saw the Jets just score 28, the Dolphins 29, the Raiders 31, and the Broncos 30 I’m not too worried. Again I love this game as a whole. Therefore I will also take shots on Cole Beasely at a discounted price in this game.
If you want some value Curtis Samuel and Damiere Byrd are also popping on our projection models.
TIGHT ENDS
DARREN WALLER, LV
$6,000 DRAFTKINGS, $7,100 FANDUEL
This Raider team is legit and could have easily been 2-0 against the Chiefs, if they had one more stop in them late in the game. The Raiders have exceeded my expectations and Gruden has done a great job with Carr and this entire team.
You get a solid floor and upside each week, and you can’t say that about too many tight ends on this slate. He is fairly priced on DraftKings and gets a matchup versus a Falcon team that struggles at defending the pass and the tight end specifically. If you can afford the safety, lock up Waller in Week 12.
HUNTER HENRY, LAC
$4,800 DRAFTKINGS, $5,900 FANDUEL
You can expect 4 receptions and 30+ yards from Henry as he has mirrored that stat line for the last 4 games. Catching touchdowns in the last two, you now have some upside you need in the mid tier. Again we love this matchup versus the Bills, and the cherry on top is the fact they are 30th worst at defending the tight end. In entries I fade Keenan, I will most likely turn to Henry as a strong pivot in a shootout game which could go slightly under owned.
DEFENSES
MIAMI DOLPHINS
$4,200 DRAFTKINGS, $5,000 FANDUEL
This Jets offense has woken up the past couple weeks but I’m not buying it at all. I will continue targeting them, the Jaguars, and now the Bengals since Burrow is out for the season. The Dolphins have been ball hawks, have forced 16 turnovers on the season, and have scored 3 defensive touchdowns. This is a must win for the Dolphins and I think they lay the hammer down on the Jets in Week 12.
NEW YORK GIANTS
$3,200 DRAFTKINGS, $4,300 FANDUEL
As I stated above Burrow is now done for the season so it’s time to load up against Brandon Allen, who is getting the start over Ryan Finley. This Giant defense is fighting for their playoff lives. They have greatly improved on the defensive side as the season has played out. They tend to keep the game lower scoring and have found ways to create turnovers and apply pressure to the quarterback. Give me the team versus a backup quarterback fighting for their playoff lives any day of the week.
Jason Mezrahi has been a professional, top-ranked Daily Fantasy Player on FanDuel and DraftKings for more than eight years. He has won FanDuel’s $155,555 King of the Diamond competition and placed second in DraftKings’ Fantasy Basketball World Championship, earning him $300,000. He owns and operates WinDailySports.com, which supports the DFS and Sports Betting community with resources such as tools, projection models, expert chat, in-depth written analysis and podcasts, plus much more.
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