The Colorado Rockies (65-77) and Philadelphia Phillies (71-70) meet Saturday at 6:05 p.m. ET to continue a four-game set at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Rockies vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
LHP Kyle Freeland is the projected starting pitcher for the Rockies. Freeland is 5-7 with a 4.69 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, and 2.6 BB/9 over 96 IP across 19 starts.
- Had a disastrous start in his last outing with 12 base runners allowed (including 4 home runs) through 4 1/3 IP against the San Francisco Giants on Monday.
- Has pitched much better away from Coors Field. Owns a 4.04 road ERA for the season and a 2.08 mark over his last five road turns.
- Has been undone by a .324 batting average on balls in play and an 18.6% home runs/fly balls rate. The combined effect makes for a 4.36 expected ERA.
RHP Zack Wheeler is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. He is 12-9 with a 2.91 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 10.4 K/9, and 1.9 BB/9 over 188 2/3 IP through 28 starts.
- Coming off 6 scoreless innings at Milwaukee with no walks allowed and 9 strikeouts, but posted a 6.41 ERA over four starts prior.
- Owns a 2.49 ERA and 0.86 WHIP through 112 IP at Citizens Bank Park this season.
Rockies at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:05 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Rockies +175 (bet $100 to win $175) | Phillies -220 (bet $220 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Rockies +1.5 (-125) | Phillies -1.5 (+102)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)
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Prediction
Phillies 4, Rockies 3
Money line (ML)
Colorado was just 6-11 over its previous 17 games, but the Rockies have taken the first two games of this series.
Philadelphia is now just 2-6 over its last eight games. A surging Phillies offense scored 6.8 runs per game from Aug. 26-Sept. 6, but has managed just 2.0 RPG in four contests since.
The starting pitching matchup makes this third game interesting. There is a sliver of a lean toward Colorado here, but…
PASS on the money line. Look for more leverage in run line and totals wagering.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
BACK THE ROCKIES +1.5 (-125). This is a play on the expected ERAs of both starters, shading just a bit to the Colorado side, and on the Rockies’ bullpen being slightly undervalued.
Over/Under (O/U)
Consider a partial-unit play on the UNDER 7.5 (-120).
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