The Pittsburgh Pirates (12-7) welcome the Cincinnati Reds (7-11) to PNC Park Thursday. First pitch in the opener of a 4-game series is set for 6:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Reds vs. Pirates odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Cincinnati leads 2-1
The Reds have lost 2 straight, but have managed to win 3 of their last 7 games. Cincinnati has scored 5.8 runs per game over its last 5 and has allowed 6.6 per game over that span.
The Pirates are just 3-3 at home this season, but did blast the Rockies 14-3 in their last outing, completing the 3-game sweep over Colorado. Pittsburgh has won 4 of its last 5.
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Reds at Pirates projected starters
RHP Luke Weaver vs. RHP Roansy Contreras
Weaver makes his 1st start of the season. He had a 1.822 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 35 2/3 IP a season ago.
- Hasn’t consistently started since the 2021 season when he was 3-6 in 13 starts with 4.25 ERA
- Hasn’t faced the Pirates since 2019
Contreras (1-1, 6.00 ERA) makes his 4th start. He has a 1.733 WHIP, 4.8 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 in 15 IP.
- Pirates are 2-1 in 3 starts by Contreras, who has gone 5-plus innings twice
- Faced the Reds 3 times in 2022 and the Pirates won all 3
Reds at Pirates odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 11:34 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Reds +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Pirates -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Reds +1.5 (-160) | Pirates -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Reds at Pirates picks and predictions
Prediction
Pirates 7, Reds 3
Moneyline
PASS.
The Reds have not been good on the road, but at (-150), the Pirates are too expensive to play to win outright here. Similarly, the Reds (+125) have good value ,but have lost 2 in a row by at least 8 runs are just 1-5 on the road.
Avoid the moneyline both ways.
Run line/Against the spread
BET PIRATES -1.5 (+135).
The Reds’ last 4 losses have been emphatic defeats. They lost 8-0 and 1-0 to the Rays in the last 2 days and lost 14-3 and 8-3 to the Phillies prior to that.
Cincinnati’s bullpen hasn’t been good this season, and it’s relatively unknown how much it’ll get from Weaver. For Pittsburgh, it is 3-3 at home but coming in hot, having won 3 in a row.
Pittsburgh is 12-7 ATS this season as well. Back the PIRATES -1.5 (+135).
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Over/Under
LEAN OVER 9 (-110).
The Reds are 11-7 O/U this season and have topped the projected total in 4 of their last 6 games. They have scored 0 runs in their last 2 games, but did score 8 and 13 in 2 of the 3 prior games.
They’re inconsistent, but considering Contreras isn’t a stud on the mound, they should be able to get loose. The Pirates are 9-9-1 O/U this season but 3-1 O/U in their last 4 games.
With neither pitcher their respective club’s ace, take the OVER 9 (-110).
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