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The Pittsburgh Pirates (60-67) welcome the Cincinnati Reds (62-66) to PNC Park Friday for the 2nd game of their 4-game series. First pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. ET (Apple TV+). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Reds vs. Pirates odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Pirates lead 5-2
The Reds lost the series-opening game 7-0 Thursday, allowing a 6-run bottom of the 5th.
Cincinnati has struggled against Pittsburgh this season and has lost its last 3 games against the Pirates. The Reds are 2-2 over their last 4 road games and 31-32 on the road for the season. They are just 2-5 over their last 7. Cincinnati is 70-57 against the spread (ATS).
The Pirates may sit 5th in the NL Central but have won 2 of their last 3 games and are 4-3 in their last 7. They have scored at least 4 runs in 4 of those 7 games. Pittsburgh is 30-32 at home and 3-1 ATS in its last 4 home games. It is 70-56 ATS.
Reds at Pirates projected starters
LHP Andrew Abbott vs. LHP Bailey Falter
Abbott (10-10, 3.72 ERA) makes his 26th start. He has a 1.30 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 138 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 4 ER (4 R), 6 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 8-1 home loss to the Kansas City Royals Sunday
- 2024 away stats: 5-5, 3.79 ERA (73 2/3 IP, 31 ER), 1.26 WHIP, 6.0 K/9 in 13 starts
- Career vs. Pirates: 1-0, 3.60 ERA (10 IP, 4 ER), 1.00 WHIP, 14.4 K/9 in 2 starts
Falter (6-7, 4.02 ERA) makes his 22nd start. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 6.3 K/9 in 107 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER (2 R), 8 H, 0 BB, 8 K in 7-2 home win over the Seattle Mariners Saturday
- 2024 home stats: 3-3, 3.61 ERA (52 1/3 IP, 21 ER), 1.24 WHIP, 6.4 K/9 in 10 starts
- Career vs. Reds: 0-3, 6.67 ERA (28 1/3 IP, 21 ER), 1.48 WHIP, 6.4 K/9 in 7 appearances (5 starts)
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Reds at Pirates odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:17 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Reds -104 (bet $104 to win $100) | Pirates -112 (bet $112 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Reds -1.5 (+168) | Pirates +1.5 (-205)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -104 | U: -118)
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Reds at Pirates picks and predictions
Prediction
Reds 5, Pirates 4
Moneyline
BET REDS (-104).
The Reds are above .500 following a loss while the Pirates are 25-34 after winning the game before. Pittsburgh’s Skenes dominated Cincinnati Thursday, but Falter hasn’t been as good, especially throughout his career against the Reds. Unlike Thursday, the Reds should have the pitching edge.
Despite putting up 0 runs Thursday, Cincinnati has scored 20 over its last 4 games and should be able to bounce back. It has been better on the road, posting a 31-32 record. Given the Reds’ offensive consistency over the last few weeks and strength on the road, expect them to put up more of a fight Friday. Back REDS (-104).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
There’s not a lot of value here. The Pirates as a run-line underdog are far too expensive to play, and the Reds as a run-line favorite aren’t worth the risk either.
Over/Under
BET OVER 8.5 (-104).
The Reds have gone Over in 3 of their last 4 games and are 5-1-2 O/U in their last 8. They have scored at least 6 runs in 2 of their last 4 games and have allowed at least 7 runs in 3 straight.
The Pirates, who are 2-0 O/U in Falter’s last 2 starts, have scored at least 3 runs in 6 of their last 7 games, so they bring some offensive consistency to the table here. Pittsburgh is 4-3-1 O/U in its last 8.
Take OVER 8.5 (-104).
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