The Cincinnati Reds (63-54) look to make it two in a row against the Philadelphia Phillies (60-56) when they meet Saturday. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Reds vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Reds RHP Luis Castillo (6-11, 4.53 ERA) makes his 25th start. He has a 1.43 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 through 131 IP.
- Castillo had been on a roll until his last start when he equaled a season-high with 8 ER allowed in just 3 1/3 IP at Cleveland. He had allowed just 6 ER combined over his six previous outings.
- Most of Castillo’s troubles this season have come on the road where he sports a 5.40 ERA, 8.1 K/9 and 1.6 HR/9 through 12 starts.
Phillies LHP Matt Moore (1-3, 6.79 ERA) makes his 18th appearance (10th start) of the season. He has a 1.63 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 through 50 1/3 IP.
- Moore has been especially bad lately as he has surrendered 17 ER and 5 HR in 14 1/3 IP over his last four appearances.
- He has a 9.89 ERA in 23 2/3 IP at home this year. A .382 BABIP has played a role but he hasn’t done himself any favors with 7 HR and 16 BB (6.1 BB/9) allowed.
Reds at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:36 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Reds -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Phillies +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
- Against the spread/ATS: Reds -1.5 (+111) | Phillies +1.5 (-140)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)
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Prediction
Reds 7, Phillies 4
Money line (ML)
The Reds won six of Castillo’s previous eight starts heading into his most recent outing, and he recorded an outstanding 1.78 ERA during that span. His career-high BB/9 continues to get him into some trouble but he should bounce back against a Philadelphia offense that is 22nd in runs per game at home.
The Reds are 27th in wRC+ vs lefties but they haven’t faced many as weak as Moore. He has been getting knocked around every time he takes the mound, and this game probably won’t be any different. Take the REDS (-140).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The Reds are 13-7 in their last 20 road games, with 12 of their 13 wins during that time coming by more than one run. They should score enough to win by multiple runs again Saturday, so go with the REDS -1.5 (+111) or consider pushing it to ALTERNATE GAME SPREAD REDS -2.5 (+160).
Over/Under (O/U)
Castillo hasn’t been nearly as dominant as the past two seasons as his walks are up and strikeouts are well off his usual pace. He has been more good than bad lately but still walked too many during the hot streak, has struggled on the road and showed last time out he is still susceptible to the occasional blowup.
Moore has been getting pummeled lately and has done nothing to inspire any confidence at home. While the Reds have struggled to get much going against lefties, they are in a good spot here and a small play on OVER 9.5 (-122) is the call.
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