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The New York Mets (68-78) welcome the Cincinnati Reds (76-72) to Citi Field to open a 3-game series Friday. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Reds vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Reds lead 2-1
The Reds failed to complete a 3-game sweep of the Detroit Tigers as they suffered an 8-2 loss Thursday as +111 underdogs. Cincinnati is 3-4 over last 7 games, a solid 40-33 on the road this season and is in a 3-way tie for the final NL Wild Card with the San Francisco Giants and the Arizona Diamondbacks.
The Mets opened the week by winning 3 of 4 games against the Arizona Diamondbacks, beating them 11-1 Thursday as -110 favorites. They are 38-34 at home this season but are 28 games back in the NL East and 7 games back in the NL Wild Card race.
Reds at Mets projected starters
RHP Hunter Greene vs. LHP David Peterson
Greene (4-6, 4.43 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.43 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 12.1 K/9 through 91 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 4 BB, 9 K in 7-1 home win vs. St. Louis Cardinals Sunday
- 2023 away stats: 3-2, 3.57 ERA in 58 IP over 11 starts
Peterson (3-8, 5.34 ERA) makes his 19th start and 25th appearance. He has a 1.60 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 through 94 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 8 K in 8-4 road loss vs. Minnesota Twins Saturday
- 2023 home stats: 2-2, 3.18 ERA in 45 1/3 IP over 8 starts and 4 relief appearances
Reds at Mets odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:42 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Reds -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Mets -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Reds -1.5 (+165) | Mets +1.5 (-200)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Reds at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Reds 5, Mets 4
Moneyline
BET REDS (-105).
The Reds should have the pitching advantage as Greene is one of the best young pitchers in the league. He has allowed 0 earned runs through his last 11 1/3 innings across 2 starts. The Reds sit 7th in the MLB in road win percentage (40-33). New York is also the bottom half in the league in win percentage after a victory at 32-25.
Cincinnati has an NL Wild Card spot on the line and should know what’s at stake here while New York is all but out of playoff contention. Couple the trends in this situation with Greene’s pitching and back REDS (-105).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
There’s no value here. The Mets are too expensive as a home underdog, and the Reds are coming off a bad loss in which they scored just 2 runs. Avoid this play.
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Over/Under
LEAN OVER 9 (-105).
The Reds went Over in their last game and have gone Over in 5 of their last 8 outings.
New York has scored 7 or more runs in 3 straight games and tallied 11 on Thursday. It has the bats to help this total soar. It has gone Over in 4 of its last 6 and in 3 straight.
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