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The Chicago Cubs (82-75) and Atlanta Braves (101-56) meet Wednesday in the middle contest of a 3-game series. First pitch at Truist Park is set for 7:20 p.m. ET (MLB Network) Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cubs vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: tied 2-2
Chicago led Tuesday’s series opener 6-0 before coughing up 7 runs over the 6th, 7th and 8th innings and losing 7-6. The loss snapped a 3-game win streak, but the Chicago offense stayed on a roll. The Cubs have scored 7.00 runs per game on the strength of a .915 OPS since Sept. 19. Chicago is 40-28 with a plus-74 run differential in the 2nd half.
Atlanta has won 4 of its last 5 games, but it’s a ball club that has scuffled a bit in September. With Tuesday’s win, the Braves are a level 11-11 since Sept. 3.
The Cubs are in the 3rd-and-final NL Wild Card spot, half a game ahead of the Miami Marlins and 1 1/2 games up on the Cincinnati Reds. The Braves have cruised to the NL East flag and are likely to have the best record in the NL. They lead the Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 games in that department.
Cubs at Braves projected starters
RHP Jameson Taillon vs. RHP Darius Vines
Taillon (8-10, 5.27 ERA) makes his 29th start. He has a 1.31 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 through 144 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 7 K in 6-0 home win vs. Colorado Rockies Friday
- 2023 Road stats: 4-4, 5.56 ERA in 66 1/3 IP across 13 starts
- Career starts vs. Braves: 1-0, 2.25 ERA in 12 IP over 2 starts (2018-21)
- Logged a 6.15 in the season’s 1st half but so far owns a 3.96 mark in the 2nd
- Has yielded just a .698 OPS in September. The final month of the regular season is his best month historically (.669 OPS allowed)
Vines (1-0, 4.4 ERA) makes his 2nd start and 5th appearance. He has a 1.12 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 5.7 K/9 through 14 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 5 K in 7-3 win at Colorado Rockies Aug. 30
- 2023 Home stats: 3.60 ERA in 2 relief appearances
- Has never faced the Cubs as a starter
- Has benefited from a .227 batting average on balls in play (BABIP)
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Cubs at Braves odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:33 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Cubs +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Braves -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Cubs +1.5 (-140) | Braves -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 10.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Cubs at Braves picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 6, Cubs 4
Moneyline
Chicago has a run differential that says it’s capable of another 30-35 points on its winning percentage. The Cubs have been hurt by a 21-22 mark in 1-run games. Betting value can often be found by seeking close-game records that don’t match the larger picture of a team.
Atlanta is the better club but is playing for a bit less in the postseason picture. Figure Taillon as having some rate stats that have unfairly pushed his ERA upward.
Over its last 11 series when losing the 1st game, Chicago has gone 9-2 in the 2nd.
BACK THE CUBS (+135).
Run line/Against the spread
The lean is with the Cubs, but the value in an underdog is dinged a bit with a high total. PASS.
Over/Under
The Over has cashed in Atlanta games at a 57.8% mark — only the Dodgers have seen a higher percentage. Braves games have hit the Over in 8 of the team’s last 10 games at home, 6 of their last 7 overall and 7 of their last 10 home games against the Cubs.
However, figure Taillon as a pushback against that lean. Ditto the Cubs offense, which is likely a bit overcooked with a .305 overall BABIP and a .hefty .326 BABIP with runners in scoring position.
PASS on the current offering. Consider circling back and seeking a level-priced (-110) 10 instead of 10.5.
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