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The Chicago Cubs (82-74) and Atlanta Braves (100-56) tangle in the opener of a 3-game set Tuesday at Truist Park. First pitch is set for 7:20 p.m. ET (TBS) Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cubs vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Cubs lead 2-1
Chicago swept the Colorado Rockies over the weekend to remain involved in the NL Wild Card discussion moving into the final week of the regular season. The Cubs head into Tuesday tied with the Arizona Diamondbacks for the final 2 playoff spots, 1 game ahead of the Miami Marlins and 2 1/2 games up on the Cincinnati Reds. Chicago is 40-27 with a plus-75 run differential in the 2nd half.
The Braves are in no frantic push to make the postseason. They have cruised to the NL East flag and likely to the best record in the NL as they lead the Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 1/2 games. However, Atlanta has scuffled a bit in September, going just 10-11 since Sept. 3 despite winning 3 of its last 4 games.
Cubs at Braves projected starters
LHP Justin Steel vs. RHP Bryce Elder
Steele (16-5, 3.00 ERA) makes his 30th start this season. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 through 168 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 3 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 13-7 home loss vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Wednesday
- 2023 Road stats: 4-2, 3.55 ERA in 66 IP across 11 starts
- Career starts vs. Braves: 2-0, 4.35 ERA in 10 1/3 IP over 2 starts (2022-23)
Elder (12-4, 3.50 ERA) makes his 31st start. He has a 1.24 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 through 171 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 3 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 3 H, 5 BB, 0 K in 6-5 home loss vs. Philadelphia Phillies Wednesday
- 2023 Home stats: 7-1, 3.26 ERA in 91 IP across 16 starts
- Faced the Cubs in 1 other start: Loss, 4 1/3 IP, 7 H, 7 R (5 ER), 3 BB, 3 K on Aug. 5
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Cubs at Braves odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:28 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Cubs +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Braves -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Cubs +1.5 (-165) | Braves -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Cubs at Braves picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 6, Cubs 4
Moneyline
The sides are fairly priced here. Atlanta is the better club but not worth 2-to-1 type odds based on the starting pitcher match-up. PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
Same as above: PASS.
Over/Under
The Over has cashed in Atlanta games at a 57.5% mark — only the Dodgers have seen a better percentage. Braves games have hit the Over in 7 of the team’s last 9 games at home, 5 of their last 6 overall and 6 of their last 9 home games against the Cubs.
Four of the last 6 Chicago games have hit the Over. The Over cashed twice the last time the Cubs faced the Braves (Aug. 4-6): the 2 Overs were in games pitches by Steele and Elder.
Steele has been a bit fortunate with a 9.4 home runs/fly balls rate this season. He’s up against an Atlanta offense which is the best in baseball against left-handers (.873 OPS). He’s getting his innings count well past previously established norms, and his last 2 starts — both shaky — could well be a sign of fatigue.
Elder has not been in good form of late.
BACK THE OVER 9.5 (+100).
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