In Monday’s College Football Playoff National Championship Game, the No. 3 TCU Horned Frogs (13-1) take on the No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs (14-0) at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the TCU vs. Georgia odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
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The Horned Frogs ousted Big Ten champion Michigan in the Fiesta Bowl by a 51-45 count, cashing outright as 9-point underdogs with the Over (55.5) easily cashing.
TCU’s only blemish was a 31-28 OT loss in the Big 12 Championship Game against Kansas State, but the Frogs proved they more than belonged in the final 4 with the win over the Wolverines. QB Max Duggan was a Heisman finalist, going for 3,546 passing yards with 32 TD passes and 6 INTs, while adding 461 rushing yards and 8 more scores.
The Horned Frogs saw leading rusher RB Kendre Miller suffer a sprained medial collateral ligament (MCL) in his right knee in the semifinal against Michigan. He will wear a brace under his pants, and attempt to warm up. As such, he is a game-time decision.
Georgia escaped by the skin of its teeth in a 42-41 win over Ohio State in the other semi, failing to cover a 5-point spread. The vaunted UGA defense has allowed 71 total points in the last 2 games, after allowing 136 total points in the first 12 games combined.
Georgia TE Darnell Washington (ankle) is expected to be a game-time decision after leaving the Ohio State game with an injury. EDGE rusher Mykal Williams also suffered a lower-body injury against the Buckeyes, and he is another question mark.’
Also see: Best TCU-Georgia prop bet picks
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TCU vs. Georgia odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 2:32 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): TCU +350 (bet $100 to win $350) | Georgia -450 (bet $450 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): TCU +13.5 (-110) | Georgia -13.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 63 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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TCU vs. Georgia picks and predictions
Prediction
Georgia 39, TCU 30
Moneyline
Georgia (-450) will cost 4½ times your potential return. That’s just too much risk for not enough reward.
Yes, the Dawgs are the defending champs, and experience is a huge factor in why UGA will win this game. But TCU (+350) proved in the semi that it has the offense to hang with anyone.
PASS.
Against the spread
Backing TCU +13.5 (-110) has been a very popular move. In fact, the public is all over the Horned Frogs at nearly a 4-to-1 clip, driving down the line from +14.5. It was down to -12 Sunday afternoon, but the number has been banged back up to 13.5 Monday.
Georgia failed to cover as a favorite against Ohio State in Atlanta, and it is just 1-3 ATS in the last 4 games. As a double-digit favorite, UGA is just 6-6 ATS this season, including 4-5 ATS in the last 9 instances.
Over/Under
OVER 63 (-112) is the BEST BET of Monday’s title game if these offenses show up like they did in their respective semis.
Georgia’s offense has rolled up 37 or more points in 3 in a row, while allowing 35.5 PPG in the last 2 games against LSU and Ohio State. It’s no surprise the Over is 3-0 in the last 3 game for the Dawgs, easily the longest streak of the season.
TCU has scored 28 or more points in 4 straight outings, and it has 51 or more points in 2 of the previous 3 contests. Overall, the Horned Frogs have cashed the Over in 8 of 14 games this season. TCU’s defense isn’t as turgid as Georgia, and allowed 384.6 total yards per game this season while conceding 25.0 PPG.
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