Two SEC teams meet Monday in the 2022 College Football Playoff National Championship when the No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs (13-1) play the No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (13-1). Kickoff at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis is set for 8 p.m. ET and airs on ESPN. Below, we look at the Georgia vs. Alabama odds and lines, and make our expert college football picks, predictions and bets.
Rankings courtesy of the AFCA Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Both teams pummelled their CFP semifinals opponents. Alabama cruised past the Cincinnati Bearcats 27-6 as a 12.5-point favorite in the Cotton Bowl and Georgia trounced the Michigan Wolverines 34-11 as a 7.5-point favorite in the Orange Bowl this past weekend.
Crimson Tide senior RB Brian Robinson Jr. ran for an Alabama bowl game record 204 yards on 26 carries and 2021 Heisman Trophy winner QB Bryce Young tossed three 3 TD passes versus Cincinnati.
Alabama is 8-6 ATS and 7-7 O/U with the seventh-toughest schedule in the nation, according to USA TODAY’s Jeff Sagarin.
The Crimson Tide are 4-0 ATS in their last four neutral-site games but just 6-7 ATS in bowl games since the first year of the College Football Playoffs in 2014. However, Alabama is 10-3 straight-up (SU) with a plus-10.3 scoring margin in bowl games since 2014.
Bulldogs senior QB Stetson Bennett completed 20 of 30 passes for 313 yards with a 3:0 TD:INT ratio and a 95.9 QBR versus Michigan on New Year’s Eve.
Georgia’s world-beating defense held Michigan to just 91 rushing yards, won the turnover battle 3-0 and stopped the Wolverines on all three of their fourth-down attempts.
The Bulldogs are 9-5 ATS and 6-8 O/U with the 24th-toughest schedule (Sagarin). Georgia is 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS in the College Football Playoffs, which includes a 26-23 overtime loss in the 2018 College Football Playoff National Championship to Alabama.
These teams met Dec. 4 when Alabama scored a crucial 41-24 victory as a 6-point underdog over Georgia in the SEC championship. That win clinched a playoff berth for the Crimson Tide.
Young completed 26 of 44 passes for an SEC championship game record 421 yards with 3 TDs and a 98.1 QBR. Bennett connected on 29 of 48 throws for 340 yards with 3 TDs but threw 2 INTs and had a 77.1 QBR.
Alabama outgained Georgia 421-340 in total yards, was much better on third-down (50.0-25.0% in third-down conversion rate) and won the turnover battle 2-0 in the SEC title game.
Georgia vs. Alabama odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:05 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Georgia -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Alabama +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
- Against the spread (ATS): Georgia -2.5 (-112) | Alabama +2.5 (-108)
- Over/Under (O/U): 52.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Georgia vs. Alabama odds, lines, picks and predictions
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Prediction
Alabama 27, Georgia 21
Money line
BET or SPRINKLE on ALABAMA (+115) with the plan of betting the Crimson Tide plus the points heavier.
Let’s make one thing clear: The reason Georgia is favored in this game is Alabama’s injuries and not because the Bulldogs are better than the Crimson Tide.
I’d argue there’s been an overreaction to these injuries for the following reason: The “next man up” mantra for Alabama carries the most weight in college football.
Seriously, there is no head coach in the history of college football that I trust more than Alabama’s Nick Saban to gameplan around injuries.
The absence of Alabama junior WR John Metchie III might provide some value on Crimson Tide here. Metchie led Alabama in receptions (96) and was second in both receiving TDs (8) and receiving yards (1,142).
However, Alabama’s wide receiver room is one of the deepest, if not the deepest, in the country. Alabama WR freshman Ja’Corey Brooks is a five-star recruit that 247Sports ranked as the second-best high school WR in the Class of 2021. Brooks caught 4 balls for 66 yards and 1 TD versus Cincinnati.
Alabama also has several four-star wide receivers and two four-star tight ends (according to 247Sports) for Young to work with. We’ve seen stacked football teams compensate for the loss of contributors this bowl season.
As a matter of fact, Ohio State’s 48-45 victory over Oregon in the Rose Bowl is an analogous situation. Two of Ohio State’s stud WRs Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson opted out of last week’s Rose Bowl.
As a result Buckeyes junior WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba had one of the greatest games in college football history: 15 receptions for 347 yards and 3 TDs. Ohio State freshman WR Marvin Harrison Jr. caught the other 3 TD passes QB C.J. Stroud threw.
The reason I bring this up is the same “next man up” mantra could certainly work for Alabama with all its talent and the G.O.A.T. head coach, Saban. It felt like the Crimson Tide didn’t use any of their good plays in the CFP Semifinals.
Perhaps Alabama was too banged up but, instead of lighting up Cincinnati’s secondary with Young, Metch and WR Jameson Williams. The Crimson Tide just ran the ball down the Bearcats’ throats.
Given equal time to prep and the best quarterback in college football, it’s hard to not blindly bet Saban and Alabama.
Young is the best quarterback Alabama has ever recruited. Barring injury, Young will be the first quarterback selected in the NFL draft whenever he enters.
Alabama is also better in high-leverage situations. For example, the Crimson Tide is the best third-down team in the country and has the sixth-best red zone conversion rate.
Young torched Georgia in Alabama’s SEC title game victory and I cannot unsee that. Young hit eight different pass catchers and completed 7 passes to Williams for 184 yards and 2 TDs.
Granted, Metchie also played very well in the SEC championship, catching 6 balls for 97 yards and 1 TD, but I have faith Saban can figure out a 60-minute workaround for the loss of Metchie.
Alabama sophomore DE Will Anderson Jr., who is the SEC Defensive Player of the Year, wreaked havoc on Georgia’s offensive line in the SEC title game. Anderson had a team-high 2 tackles for a loss and 1 sack versus Georgia. There’s buzz Anderson will be a top-5 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.
So not only does Saban have the best quarterback in the country but he also has the best defensive player on the field as well.
I’ve never been a believer in this Georgia thing or as Bennett as a big-game quarterback. The Bulldogs were touted as perhaps an all-time defense but they got destroyed by ‘Bama in the conference championship.
Plus Bennett has always struggled versus Saban. Bennett is 0-2 in his career against Alabama. He’s completed just 53.4% of his passes for 609 yards with a 5:5 TD:INT ratio in those two games.
I’ll concede I’m nervous Bennett could have more success in the air Monday since Alabama has a couple of injuries in its secondary, but that’s another blemish Saban can mask with his coaching.
Alabama has produced as many professional defensive backs as any football program in the nation, Saban played defensive back in college and the foundation of his greatness is coaching up secondaries.
Again, the Crimson Tide’s injuries are worrisome and this line movement is frightening, but I’ll happily lose money backing the best coach ever with the best QB in the country.
SPRINKLE on ALABAMA (+115) because the Crimson Tide’s spread is a wiser wager.
Against the spread
I rarely do this but I’d consider buying a point and BETTING ALABAMA +3.5 (-140) on the ALTERNATE SPREAD. If not, the Crimson Tide plus the points is the play either way.
Alabama is 5-1 SU and ATS as an underdog since 2018 with a plus-14.7 scoring margin and a plus-20.0 ATS margin.
For the record, my biggest bugaboo with this line is most of the action is coming in on Alabama.
Roughly 80% of the cash wagered is on the Crimson Tide according to pregame.com, and I hate following the herd in sports betting. If this is a trap game then I’m screwed.
BET ALABAMA +2.5 (-108) or preferably on ALABAMA +3.5 (-140) with the ALTERNATE SPREAD.
Over/Under
“LEAN” to the UNDER 52.5 (-112) for a small wager, if at all, as a fade against a market that is betting the Over at a 63% clip at the time of publishing, according to Pregame.com.
Georgia is 3-4 O/U in bowl games since hiring head coach Kirby Smart in 2016 and Alabama is 4-6 O/U with a minus-7.2 total margin in bowl games over that same time span.
Both head coaches have made their bones coaching defense and I could see the bright lights of the title game suppressing the scoring in this contest.
My favorite wager in this game is Alabama plus the points, but I “LEAN” to the UNDER 52.5 (-112).
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