Category: UFC MMA Betting Tips

Noche UFC: Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Terrence Mitchell odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Noche UFC odds between Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Terrence Mitchell, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round bantamweight bout on the main card, Raul Rosas Jr. and Terrence Mitchell meet at Noche UFC — also known as UFC Fight Night 227 and UFC on ESPN+ 85 — on Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook‘s lines around the Noche UFC: Rosas Jr. vs. Mitchell odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

Records: Rosas Jr. (7-1-0) | Mitchell (14-3-0)

The prelims can be viewed on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET and the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

Rosas Jr., a.k.a. “El Niño Problema”, is an 18-year-old prospect who is already fighting in his 3rd UFC fight. He posted a 1st-round submission against Jay Perrin at UFC 282 in Dec. 2022 but lost via unanimous decision against Christian Rodriguez last time out at UFC 287 in April.

Mitchell is 33 years old, but he actually has one fewer UFC fight than Rosas Jr. That fight was a 1st-round KO/TKO loss against Cameron Saaiman at UFC 290 in July. Mitchell has a 7-inch reach advantage over the teen.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Noche UFC: Rosas Jr. vs. Mitchell odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:44 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Rosas Jr. -770 (bet $770 to win $100) | Mitchell +540 (bet $100 to win $540)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over +205 | Under -280)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +640 | No -1100)

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Noche UFC: Rosas Jr. vs. Mitchell picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Rosas Jr. (-770) will cost you more than 7 1/2 times your potential return, and that’s just too expensive if you want to back the teen phenom.

Instead, consider getting a little more specific. Take a look at METHOD OF VICTORY: ROSAS JR. BY SUBMISSION (-175) because despite that Holland is pretty solid on the canvas, and he is a perfect 6-0 via submission in his career as a professional, Rosas is special on the ground. He has 7 victories in 8 career bouts as a pro, with 5 of those victories coming via submission. His specialty is the armbar and rear-naked choke.

Over/Under (O/U)

No (-1100): Will the fight go the distance? is way too risky, costing 11 times your potential return. There is no way we can advise playing such a prop with a steep price tag.

Even Under 1.5 Rounds (-280) will cost you nearly 3 times your potential return. Consider the SUBMISSION ROUND COMBOS: ROSAS JR. TO WIN BY SUBMISSION IN ROUNDS 1 OR 2 (-155), as that isn’t priced out of line.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.

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Noche UFC: Kevin Holland vs. Jack Della Maddalena odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Noche UFC odds between Kevin Holland vs. Jack Della Maddalena, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round welterweight bout on the main card, Kevin Holland and Jack Della Maddalena meet at Noche UFC — also known as UFC Fight Night 227 and UFC on ESPN+ 85 — on Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook‘s lines around the Noche UFC: Holland vs. Della Maddalena odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

Records: Holland (25-9-0) | Della Maddalena (15-2-0)

The prelims can be viewed on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET and the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

Holland posted a 1st-round submission against Michael Chiesa last time out at UFC 291 in July, and that came on the heels of a 3rd-round KO/TKO win over Santiago Ponzinibbio at UFC 287 in April. This is his 3rd fight in 2023.

Each of Holland’s past 6 fights has finished inside the distance, as he is 2-1 by way of submission and 2-1 via KO/TKO. The last time he went the distance was a pair of consecutive unanimous-decision losses to Marvin Vettori and Derek Brunson in the spring of 2021.

Della Maddalena is unbeaten at the UFC level, going 5-0 since making his debut at UFC 270 in Jan. 2022. He had a split-decision win last time out against Bassil Hafez in July, which was the first time he went the distance after going 3-0 with 3 straight 1st-round KO/TKO victories and a 1st-round submission at UFC 284 against Randy Brown in February.

Holland stands 4 inches taller than Della Maddalena and has an amazing 8-inch reach advantage. However, the Aussie Della Maddalena holds an impressive 7.27-to-4.11 significant strikes landed per minute edge despite that Holland is slightly more accurate at 64.84% of his strikes compared to just 57.53% for Della Maddalena.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Noche UFC: Holland vs. Della Maddalena odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:42 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Holland +124 (bet $100 to win $124) | Della Maddalena -146 (bet $146 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over +110 | Under -140)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +140 | No -182)

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Noche UFC: Holland vs. Della Maddalena picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

HOLLAND (+124) is a solid play at plus money as the slight underdog. Della Maddalena has yet to taste defeat at the UFC level, and he hasn’t suffered a setback since beginning his pro career with back-to-back losses at EMMA: Eternal MMA 15 and 117 back in the spring of 2016.

While Della Maddalena is a perfect 5-0 in his UFC career and has rattled off 15 straight professional victories overall, facing Holland is difficult. The American fighter has a tremendous reach advantage and will be able to keep Della Maddalena at a distance, picking and choosing his spots to get close while dictating the pace.

Over/Under (O/U)

No (-182): Will the fight go the distance? is a little too expensive, so avoid playing that prop.

However, playing a 2-round block is a good idea. ROUND BETTING: HOLLAND TO WIN IN ROUND 2 (+1000) and HOLLAND TO WIN IN ROUND 3 (+1600) are worth a roll of the dice. Yes, you’ll lose at least one end, even if he can get the finish in one of the 2 rounds, but you will be very well ahead.

If you don’t want to declare a winner but still want a solid value, take HOW FIGHT WILL END: KO/TKO (+100) at even money.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.

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Noche UFC: Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Noche UFC odds between Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 5-round women’s flyweight championship bout in the main event, Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko meet at Noche UFC — also known as UFC Fight Night 227 and UFC on ESPN+ 85 — on Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook‘s lines around the Noche UFC: Grasso vs. Shevchenko odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

Records: Grasso (16-3-0) | Shevchenko (23-4-0)

The prelims can be viewed on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET and the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

Grasso won the women’s flyweight championship against Shevchenko at UFC 285 back in early March in a 4-round submission victory. Now, the first-ever Mexican female UFC championship makes her first title defense in a rematch in the special celebration of Mexican Independence Day in Vegas.

Grasso has rattled off 5 straight wins since a majority-decision setback against Carla Esparza in late Sept. 2019, with 2 submission wins and 3 unanimous-decision victories during the streak.

Shevchenko is looking to bounce back from her first setback since a split-decision loss to Amanda Nunes at UFC 215 in Sept. 2017, recording 9 straight wins before tapping against Grasso. Shevchenko won the strap from Joanna Jedrzejczyk at UFC 231 in Dec. 2018 and had made 7 straight title defenses.

Shevchenko recorded 4 decision victories, 4 KO/TKO wins and is 1-1 via submission across her last 10 bouts.

Grasso holds a 4.88-to-3.29 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, although Shevchenko is much more accurate at 68.95% to just 54.20% for the champ. Shevchenko is also much better on the ground, posting a 2.57 takedown average while posting a 64.29% takedown accuracy percentage.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Noche UFC: Grasso vs. Shevchenko odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:36 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Grasso +144 (bet $100 to win $144) | Shevchenko -172 (bet $172 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 4.5 rounds (Over -154 | Under +120)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -130 | No +100)

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Noche UFC: Grasso vs. Shevchenko picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

SHEVCHENKO (-172) is going to play spoiler at Noche UFC, snatching the women’s flyweight strap back from the first-ever Mexican female champ.

Grasso surprised the former champ by turning the tables and submitting Shevchenko at UFC 285 at T-Mobile Arena. These 2 meet again at the same venue, and this is setting up for a trilogy fight at the top of the division.

Shevchenko was beaten at her own game, but she is easily better at takedowns and in the grappling game. She is versatile and can win fights in a number of ways, but I see this one ending via knockout, which is how she has notched 4 of her past 7 victories. As such, play METHOD OF VICTORY: SHEVCHENKO BY TKO/KO (+390) for a chance to multiply your initial wager by nearly 4 times.

Over/Under (O/U)

NO (+100): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE is a good value at even money.

While Grasso has gone the distance in 5 of her past 7 fights, 2 of the past 3 have been stoppages, including the first battle with Shevchenko. For the former champ, she has gone the distance just once in the past 4 fights since Nov. 2020.

If you don’t want to declare a winner but still want some action at a good price, play HOW FIGHT WILL END: KO/TKO (+300) for a chance to triple up, and you win if Grasso or Shevchenko scores the knockout.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.

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UFC 293: Israel Adesanya vs. Sean Strickland odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 293 odds between Israel Adesanya vs. Sean Strickland with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 5-round middleweight championship bout in the main event, Israel Adesanya and Sean Strickland meet at UFC 293 on Saturday at Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

Records: Adesanya (24-2-0) | Strickland (27-5-0)

The early prelims can be viewed on ESPN+ at 6:30 p.m. ET, and the prelims can be viewed on ESPNews/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on Pay-Per-View

Adesanya, a.k.a. “The Last Stylebender”, reclaimed his belt at UFC 287 in April with a 2nd-round KO/TKO win over Alex Pereira after getting knocked out by Pereira in the 5th round at UFC 281 in November 2022.

It was rare for him to have back-to-back fights finish inside the distance, as his previous 4 fights had been unanimous decisions. It was the first time since arriving at the UFC level that Stylebender failed to go the distance in consecutive bouts.

Strickland is coming off a 2nd-round KO/TKO against Abus Magomedov in the main event of a Fight Night event at UFC Apex on July 1. He has consecutive wins since recording back-to-back losses to close out 2022. Strickland has gone the distance in 2 of the past 3 bouts and 5 of his previous 7 fights.

Adesanya has a 4-inch reach advantage, and the switch stance champ lands 53.65% of his significant strikes accuracy percentage to just 43.19% for Strickland. The latter does lead 5.86-to-3.94 in the significant strikes landed per minute department despite not being as accurate.

Strickland will also be keen to get this fight to the canvas, posting a 1.00 takedown average and 64.29% takedown accuracy percentage, while Adesanya barely has blips on either chart.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:48 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Adesanya -650 (bet $650 to win $100) | Strickland +475 (bet $100 to win $475)
  • Over/Under: 3.5 rounds (Over -140 | Under +110)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +120 | No -165)

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UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Adesanya (-650) is a risky play, not only because you need to risk 6 1/2 times your potential return, but because he rarely gets stoppages and must rely on the judges to like the technical aspects so much that he gets the win by decision. As any bettor knows, it’s never a good thing when the judges get to decide your fate.

Looking at the lines, Adesanya by decision normally would be the avenue I’d go. However, instead of declaring a winner, you can simply go with HOW WILL THE FIGHT FINISH? DECISION (+120) for the fight finish, and you win whether Adesanya or Strickland wins on points. Instead of narrowing your chances by taking the camp, it’s just a small price to pay to double the potential win.

Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 3.5 ROUNDS (-140) is worth a look if you want a little bit of wiggle room in the event of a late 4th-round finish or a knockout or submission in the 5th round.

Playing OVER 4.5 ROUNDS (+100) is even money and worth a look if you’re dead set on a 5th round finish in the final 90 seconds of the bout. For me, playing the decision is the much better play in this title fight.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

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UFC 293: Tai Tuivasa vs. Alexander Volkov odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 293 odds between Tai Tuivasa vs. Alexander Volkov with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round heavyweight bout on the main card, Tai Tuivasa and Alexander Volkov meet at UFC 293 on Saturday at Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 293: Tuivasa vs. Volkov odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

Records: Tuivasa (15-5-0) | Volkov (36-10-0)

The early prelims can be viewed on ESPN+ at 6:30 p.m. ET, and the prelims can be viewed on ESPNews/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on Pay-Per-View

Tuivasa has suffered back-to-back KO/TKO losses against Sergei Pavlovich (Dec. 2022) and Ciryl Gane (Sept. 2022). His past 7 bouts have all resulted in KO/TKOs, with 5 wins and those 2 losses, and he has finished inside the distance in each of his previous 8 outings.

Volkov has recorded 1st-round KO/TKO victories in the past 2 outings against Alexandr Romanov and Jairzinho Rozenstruik. He has finished inside the distance in 3 in a row, and 5 of the past 7 outings.

Volkov takes the walk to the octagon with a 4.89 significant strikes landed per minute while landing 61.92%. Tuivasa has recorded 4.10 significant strikes landed per minute while landing just 52.69%. The Russian favorite also holds a 5-inch reach advantage, while posting a 0.51 takedown average.

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UFC 293: Tuivasa vs. Volkov odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 6:38 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Tuivasa +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Volkov -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -115 | Under -115)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +225 | No -350)

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UFC 293: Tuivasa vs. Volkov picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Volkov (-250) will cost you 2 1/2 times your potential return, and that’s a little too much risk and not enough reward. It’s a risky play, too, as he actually hasn’t won 3 fights in a row since winning his first 4 fights at the UFC level from Nov. 2016 to March 2018, and his final 2 fights in the M-1 Challenge.

Taivasa (+200) has been knocked out in the past 2 fights and could be on his way to a 3rd consecutive loss.

While it’s not a good idea to bet the 2-way line, take a look at the METHOD OF VICTORY 7-WAY: VOLKOV BY KO/TKO OR DQ (-110) is a much better value, and it’s worth playing instead of tying it together with the submission on the 5-way line. Neither of these fighters are going to go to the mat.

Over/Under (O/U)

UNDER 1.5 ROUNDS (-115) is worth a look, as neither of these 2 fighters is keen to go very deep into the night.

Taivasa has not even made it out of the 1st round in 4 of the past 7 bouts, and he hasn’t made it past the halfway point of the 2nd round in 6 of the past 7 outings. In addition, Volkov hasn’t made it out of the 1st round in each of the past 3 bouts, too.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

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UFC 293: Justin Tafa vs. Austen Lane odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 293 odds between Justin Tafa vs. Austen Lane with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round heavyweight bout on the main card, Justin Tafa and Austen Lane meet at UFC 293 on Saturday at Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 293: Tafa vs. Lane odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

Records: Tafa (6-3-0) | Lane (12-3-0)

The early prelims can be viewed on ESPN+ at 6:30 p.m. ET, and the prelims can be viewed on ESPNews/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on Pay-Per-View

Lane and Tafa run it back after their previous meeting lasted just 29 seconds before resulting in a No Contest when the 2 fighters met at UFC Fight Night on June 24 in Jacksonville, Fla. Lane’s fingers appeared to go into both eyes of Tafa in one of the worst eye pokes you’ll ever see.

Tafa had a pair of 1st-round KO/TKO victories against Parker Porter and Harry Hunsucker in his 2 fights prior to the NC. He has been rather up and down since arriving at the UFC level, going 3-3 with the No Contest. Tafa has finished inside the distance in 4 of his 6 last fights and 7 of 9 career professional bouts.

The 29-second No Contest was Lane’s debut at the UFC level. Prior to that, he knocked out Richard Jacobi in Dana White’s Contender Series: Season 6, Week 9. He also has a heavyweight strap to his name after topping Juan Adams at Fury FC 54 back in Nov. 2021.

Lane holds a 6-inch reach advantage but the southpaw Tafa enters the bout with 5.02 significant strikes landed per minute and lanads 58.38% of those strikes. Neither is particularly strong on takedowns or the wrestling game, so expect this fight to be entirely upright.

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UFC 293: Tafa vs. Lane odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 6:35 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Tafa -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Lane +165 (bet $100 to win $165)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over +180 | Under -240)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +500 | No -1000)

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UFC 293: Tafa vs. Lane picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Tafa (-200) heads into this fight with a chip on his shoulder after the last meeting ended with a double-eye poke. He felt as if the right call wasn’t made in his fight against Lane, and that he deserved a win bonus and a disqualification for Lane (+165).

While Tafa comes in with a ton of energy, laying 2 times your potential return is just too risky.

PASS.

Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (+180) is a tremendous value. While neither of these fighters is keen to go the distance, and we likely are going to see a knockout, expect this bout to go past the middle of Round 2.

It’s worth the risk for a chance to nearly double up despite that Tafa’s past 2 finished fights have ended in Round 1.

Lane’s past 3 pro bouts (including the NC) have ended in Round 1 as well, and he hasn’t made it out of the 1st round in 7 of his past 8 professional bouts. So there are risks here, but these 2 should have quite a slugfest.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

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UFC Fight Night 226: Benoit Saint-Denis vs. Thiago Moises odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 226 odds between Benoit Saint-Denis vs. Thiago Moises with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round lightweight bout on the main card, Benoit Saint-Denis and Thiago Moises meet at UFC Fight Night 226 — also known as UFC on ESPN+ 84 and UFC Paris — at Accor Arena in Paris on Saturday. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 226: Saint-Denis vs. Moises odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

Records: Saint-Denis (11-1-0) | Moises (17-6-0)

The prelims can be viewed on ESPN+ at 12:30 p.m. ET, while the main card starts at 3 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

Saint-Denis will have the home crowd behind him, but he more going for him than just noise from the fans. The southpaw has a 2.5-inch reach advantage and a 4.11-to-2.47 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. He also lands 62.70% of those strikes, compared to just 45.34% for his counterpart.

After losing his UFC debut, Saint-Denis, a.k.a. “God of War”, has rattled off 3 straight victories, all via stoppage. That includes a 1st-round victory via submission against Ismael Bonfim last time out on July 1.

If Moises has an advantage, it’s in the ground game, where he had a 41.38% takedown accuracy percentage and a 1.28 submission average. Moises has won his past 2 fights via submission, including a 2nd-round win over Melquizael Costa last time out at UFC 283 in late January.

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UFC Fight Night 226: Saint-Denis vs. Moises odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:47 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Saint-Denis -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Moises +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -105 | Under -115)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +130 | No -175)

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UFC Fight Night 226: Saint-Denis vs. Moises picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

SAINT-DENIS (-165) is a rather moderate favorite, but he is a strong play in front of his fellow French citizens. They’ll be a full throat spurring him on.

BSD rolls in with 3 straight victories, and he has gotten the job done at 1:32 of the 2nd Round or earlier in each win.

Moises will be trying desperately to get Saint-Denis to the mat, but the Frenchman is also pretty strong on the canvas. That mitigates the only slight advantage Moises might have.

Over/Under (O/U)

NO (-175): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is a little bit pricey, but this fight is likely to end before the judges are forced to get involved.

Since going the distance in his UFC debut, Saint-Denis has 3 consecutive finishes; Moises has 4 straight stoppages since his last decision back on Feb. 27, 2021.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

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UFC Fight Night 226: Manon Fiorot vs. Rose Namajunas odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 226 odds between Manon Fiorot vs. Rose Namajunas with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round women’s flyweight bout on the main card, Manon Fiorot and Rose Namajunas meet at UFC Fight Night 226 — also known as UFC on ESPN+ 84 and UFC Paris — at Accor Arena in Paris on Saturday. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 226: Fiorot vs. Namajunas odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

Records: Fiorot (10-1-0) | Namajunas (12-5-0)

The prelims can be viewed on ESPN+ at 12:30 p.m. ET, while the main card starts at 3 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

Fiorot takes the walk to the octagon looking to stay perfect at the UFC level. Since her company debut on Jan. 20, 2021, “The Beast” has won 5 straight bouts, including 3 consecutive unanimous-decision victories. The opponents haven’t been slouches, either, as Fiorot has stopped veterans Katlyn Chookagian, Jennifer Maia and Mayra Bueno Silva in the past 3 outings.

Namajunas makes her debut at 125 pounds. The 31-year-old last fought at UFC 274, falling to Carla Esparza via split-decision in May 2022 to lose her women’s strawweight title. In an odd twist, 3 of her past 4 fights have ended with split-decision results, with 2 wins and the loss to Esparza.

Watch  this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

UFC Fight Night 226: Fiorot vs. Namajunas odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:36 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Fiorot -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Namajunas +160 (bet $100 to win $160)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -175 | No +130)

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UFC Fight Night 226: Fiorot vs. Namajunas picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Fiorot (-200) will be fighting on her home soil in Paris, and the fans will be behind her. But NAMAJUNAS (+160) is the play in her flyweight debut. The former strawweight champ has the experience, and she’ll tap into that wealth of knowledge to get it done and wow the judges.

In addition to the straight-up play on the 2-way line, look to METHOD OF VICTORY 5-WAY: NAMAJUNAS BY DECISION (+300) for the chance to triple up.

Over/Under (O/U)

YES (-175): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is a tad on the expensive side but it’s the slam-dunk play here — especially if you want action on the bout and don’t want to declare a winner.

Fiorot has gone the distance in 3 straight unanimous-decision results, and Namajunas has needed the judges in 3 of her previous 4 outings.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC Fight Night 226: Ciryl Gane vs. Serghei Spivac odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 226 odds between Ciryl Gane vs. Serghei Spivac with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 5-round heavyweight bout in the main event, Ciryl Gane and Serghei Spivac meet at UFC Fight Night 226 — also known as UFC on ESPN+ 84 and UFC Paris — at Accor Arena in Paris on Saturday. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 226: Gane vs. Spivac odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

Records: Gane (11-2-0) | Spivac (16-3-0)

The prelims can be viewed on ESPN+ at 12:30 p.m. ET, while the main card starts at 3 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

Gane is looking to bounce back after losing to Jon “Bones” Jones in a 1st-round submission at UFC 285 in March. The loss marked his 2nd straight failed attempt to reclaim the title, as the Frenchman went the distance in a unanimous-decision loss to Francis Ngannou at UFC 270 in Jan. 2022. That was the only time in his last 4 fights that he’s needed the judges, and he earned a 3rd-round TO/TKO victory over Tai Tuivasa in between the title-shot defeats. “Bon Gamin” is 8-2 since joining the UFC with his only 2 losses coming in the title fights.

Spivac takes the walk with 3 consecutive stoppage wins in tow. He submitted Derrick Lewis in the 1st-round of a fight night main event last time out on Feb. 4, and he recorded a pair of KO/TKO wins over Augusto Sakai (2nd round) and Greg Hardy (1st round) in 2022. He has gone the distance just once in his previous 6 battles in the octagon.

Gane holds a 3-inch reach advantage, and he also has a slight 5.08-to-3.79 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. Spivac is slightly more accurate with the strikes, landing 63.78% to 61.93% for Gane. Spivac’s biggest advantage is in the takedown game, posting a 5.05 TD Average, while also posting a 65.85% takedown accuracy percentage and 0.56 submission average.

Watch  this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

UFC Fight Night 226: Gane vs. Spivac odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:28 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Gane -190 (bet $190 to win $100) | Spivac +160 (bet $100 to win $160)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over +130 | Under -165)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +350 | No -550)

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UFC Fight Night 226: Gane vs. Spivac picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Gane (-190) had tons of trouble against Jones and Ngannou on the ground, and that certainly doesn’t bode well for him against SPIVAC (+160). The Moldovan fighter and moderate underdog is worth playing, despite the location of the fight favoring Gane.

Spivac holds a tremendous advantage in the ground game, and Gane just won’t be keen to get to the canvas. If the challenger does take it there, this one could be over quickly.

Over/Under (O/U)

No (-550): Will the fight go the distance? will cost you 5 1/2 times your potential return and that’s an awful play — even though this one is unlikely to include the judges for a decision.

I like METHOD OF VICTORY 7-WAY: SPIVAC BY SUBMISSION (+400) for a chance to multiply your wager by 4 times, and UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (-165) is also a sound play.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

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UFC Fight Night 225: Giga Chikadze vs. Alex Caceres odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 225 odds between Giga Chikadze vs. Alex Caceres with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round featherweight bout on the main card, Giga Chikadze and Alex Caceres meet at UFC Fight Night 225 — also known as UFC Singapore — at Singapore Indoor Stadium in Kallang, Singapore, on Saturday. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 225: Chikadze vs. Caceres odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

Records: Chikadze (14-3-0) | Caceres (21-13-0)

The prelims can be viewed on ESPN+ at 5 a.m. ET, while the main card starts at 8 a.m. ET on ESPN+.

Chikadze suffered his first loss in 8 UFC fights last time out, falling to Calvin Kattar via unanimous decision in the main event of a fight night in mid-January 2022. He entered that bout with 3 consecutive KO/TKO wins, including a 3rd-round knockout of Edson Barboza in August 2021.

Caceres, a.k.a. “Bruce Leeroy”, has picked up wins in his past 2 bouts. He recorded a unanimous-decision victory over Daniel Pineda last time out in early June and dropped Julian Erosa in the 1st round in Dec. 2022, washing off the stink of a unanimous-decision loss to Sodiq Yusuff in mid-March 2022.

Chikadze holds a slight half-inch reach advantage, while Caceres owns a 4.16-to-4.05 significant strikes landed per minute edge. Caceres is also much more accurate with his strikes, landing 55.42% to just 43.96% for the favorite.

Caceres is also well ahead in the takedown categories, holding a 0.59-to-0.26 takedown average lead, while his takedown average percentage is 68.42% to just 33.33% for the Georgian. Bruce Leeroy also has a 0.73 submission average, while Chikadze comes in at 0.26.

Watch  this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

UFC Fight Night 225: Chikadze vs. Caceres odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 6:08 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Chikadze -250 (bet $250 to win $100) | Caceres +200 (bet $100 to win $200)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -210 | Under +160)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -175 | No +130)

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UFC Fight Night 225: Chikadze vs. Caceres picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

CACERES (+200) is a tremendous value for the opportunity to double up with a victory.

Chikadze is an amazing competitor but he’s in for a difficult night against the very energetic and motivated Caceres. The challenger lands more strikes per minute, is much more accurate with said strikes and is slightly better in the ground game.

While the Georgian Chikadze does everything well and is more of an orthodox fighter, Caceres is a ball of energy and a little wild — but that also could help to catch the eye of the judges. As long as Caceres can weather an early storm and can get plenty of takedowns, I think he does enough to wow the judges in his favor.

METHOD OF VICTORY – 7-WAY: CACERES BY DECISION/TECHNICAL DECISION (+450) is a huge value play for a chance to multiply up by 4 1/2 times, too.

Over/Under (O/U)

YES (-175): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is a little on the expensive side, but not a bad play if you want some action and do not want to declare a winner in the bout.

This play comes with risk, as Chikadze has 3 stoppages in the past 4 bouts, although 5 of his 8 fights at the UFC have resulted in decisions.

As far as Caceres is concerned, he has 3 decisions in the past 5 bouts and 10 across his previous 16 outings.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

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