Tag: UFC on ESPN+ 85 odds lines picks and predictions best bets

Noche UFC: Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Terrence Mitchell odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Noche UFC odds between Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Terrence Mitchell, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round bantamweight bout on the main card, Raul Rosas Jr. and Terrence Mitchell meet at Noche UFC — also known as UFC Fight Night 227 and UFC on ESPN+ 85 — on Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook‘s lines around the Noche UFC: Rosas Jr. vs. Mitchell odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

Records: Rosas Jr. (7-1-0) | Mitchell (14-3-0)

The prelims can be viewed on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET and the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

Rosas Jr., a.k.a. “El Niño Problema”, is an 18-year-old prospect who is already fighting in his 3rd UFC fight. He posted a 1st-round submission against Jay Perrin at UFC 282 in Dec. 2022 but lost via unanimous decision against Christian Rodriguez last time out at UFC 287 in April.

Mitchell is 33 years old, but he actually has one fewer UFC fight than Rosas Jr. That fight was a 1st-round KO/TKO loss against Cameron Saaiman at UFC 290 in July. Mitchell has a 7-inch reach advantage over the teen.

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Noche UFC: Rosas Jr. vs. Mitchell odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:44 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Rosas Jr. -770 (bet $770 to win $100) | Mitchell +540 (bet $100 to win $540)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over +205 | Under -280)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +640 | No -1100)

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Noche UFC: Rosas Jr. vs. Mitchell picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Rosas Jr. (-770) will cost you more than 7 1/2 times your potential return, and that’s just too expensive if you want to back the teen phenom.

Instead, consider getting a little more specific. Take a look at METHOD OF VICTORY: ROSAS JR. BY SUBMISSION (-175) because despite that Holland is pretty solid on the canvas, and he is a perfect 6-0 via submission in his career as a professional, Rosas is special on the ground. He has 7 victories in 8 career bouts as a pro, with 5 of those victories coming via submission. His specialty is the armbar and rear-naked choke.

Over/Under (O/U)

No (-1100): Will the fight go the distance? is way too risky, costing 11 times your potential return. There is no way we can advise playing such a prop with a steep price tag.

Even Under 1.5 Rounds (-280) will cost you nearly 3 times your potential return. Consider the SUBMISSION ROUND COMBOS: ROSAS JR. TO WIN BY SUBMISSION IN ROUNDS 1 OR 2 (-155), as that isn’t priced out of line.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.

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Noche UFC: Kevin Holland vs. Jack Della Maddalena odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Noche UFC odds between Kevin Holland vs. Jack Della Maddalena, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round welterweight bout on the main card, Kevin Holland and Jack Della Maddalena meet at Noche UFC — also known as UFC Fight Night 227 and UFC on ESPN+ 85 — on Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook‘s lines around the Noche UFC: Holland vs. Della Maddalena odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

Records: Holland (25-9-0) | Della Maddalena (15-2-0)

The prelims can be viewed on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET and the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

Holland posted a 1st-round submission against Michael Chiesa last time out at UFC 291 in July, and that came on the heels of a 3rd-round KO/TKO win over Santiago Ponzinibbio at UFC 287 in April. This is his 3rd fight in 2023.

Each of Holland’s past 6 fights has finished inside the distance, as he is 2-1 by way of submission and 2-1 via KO/TKO. The last time he went the distance was a pair of consecutive unanimous-decision losses to Marvin Vettori and Derek Brunson in the spring of 2021.

Della Maddalena is unbeaten at the UFC level, going 5-0 since making his debut at UFC 270 in Jan. 2022. He had a split-decision win last time out against Bassil Hafez in July, which was the first time he went the distance after going 3-0 with 3 straight 1st-round KO/TKO victories and a 1st-round submission at UFC 284 against Randy Brown in February.

Holland stands 4 inches taller than Della Maddalena and has an amazing 8-inch reach advantage. However, the Aussie Della Maddalena holds an impressive 7.27-to-4.11 significant strikes landed per minute edge despite that Holland is slightly more accurate at 64.84% of his strikes compared to just 57.53% for Della Maddalena.

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Noche UFC: Holland vs. Della Maddalena odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:42 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Holland +124 (bet $100 to win $124) | Della Maddalena -146 (bet $146 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over +110 | Under -140)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +140 | No -182)

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Noche UFC: Holland vs. Della Maddalena picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

HOLLAND (+124) is a solid play at plus money as the slight underdog. Della Maddalena has yet to taste defeat at the UFC level, and he hasn’t suffered a setback since beginning his pro career with back-to-back losses at EMMA: Eternal MMA 15 and 117 back in the spring of 2016.

While Della Maddalena is a perfect 5-0 in his UFC career and has rattled off 15 straight professional victories overall, facing Holland is difficult. The American fighter has a tremendous reach advantage and will be able to keep Della Maddalena at a distance, picking and choosing his spots to get close while dictating the pace.

Over/Under (O/U)

No (-182): Will the fight go the distance? is a little too expensive, so avoid playing that prop.

However, playing a 2-round block is a good idea. ROUND BETTING: HOLLAND TO WIN IN ROUND 2 (+1000) and HOLLAND TO WIN IN ROUND 3 (+1600) are worth a roll of the dice. Yes, you’ll lose at least one end, even if he can get the finish in one of the 2 rounds, but you will be very well ahead.

If you don’t want to declare a winner but still want a solid value, take HOW FIGHT WILL END: KO/TKO (+100) at even money.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.

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Noche UFC: Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Noche UFC odds between Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 5-round women’s flyweight championship bout in the main event, Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko meet at Noche UFC — also known as UFC Fight Night 227 and UFC on ESPN+ 85 — on Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook‘s lines around the Noche UFC: Grasso vs. Shevchenko odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

Records: Grasso (16-3-0) | Shevchenko (23-4-0)

The prelims can be viewed on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET and the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

Grasso won the women’s flyweight championship against Shevchenko at UFC 285 back in early March in a 4-round submission victory. Now, the first-ever Mexican female UFC championship makes her first title defense in a rematch in the special celebration of Mexican Independence Day in Vegas.

Grasso has rattled off 5 straight wins since a majority-decision setback against Carla Esparza in late Sept. 2019, with 2 submission wins and 3 unanimous-decision victories during the streak.

Shevchenko is looking to bounce back from her first setback since a split-decision loss to Amanda Nunes at UFC 215 in Sept. 2017, recording 9 straight wins before tapping against Grasso. Shevchenko won the strap from Joanna Jedrzejczyk at UFC 231 in Dec. 2018 and had made 7 straight title defenses.

Shevchenko recorded 4 decision victories, 4 KO/TKO wins and is 1-1 via submission across her last 10 bouts.

Grasso holds a 4.88-to-3.29 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, although Shevchenko is much more accurate at 68.95% to just 54.20% for the champ. Shevchenko is also much better on the ground, posting a 2.57 takedown average while posting a 64.29% takedown accuracy percentage.

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Noche UFC: Grasso vs. Shevchenko odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:36 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Grasso +144 (bet $100 to win $144) | Shevchenko -172 (bet $172 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 4.5 rounds (Over -154 | Under +120)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -130 | No +100)

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Noche UFC: Grasso vs. Shevchenko picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

SHEVCHENKO (-172) is going to play spoiler at Noche UFC, snatching the women’s flyweight strap back from the first-ever Mexican female champ.

Grasso surprised the former champ by turning the tables and submitting Shevchenko at UFC 285 at T-Mobile Arena. These 2 meet again at the same venue, and this is setting up for a trilogy fight at the top of the division.

Shevchenko was beaten at her own game, but she is easily better at takedowns and in the grappling game. She is versatile and can win fights in a number of ways, but I see this one ending via knockout, which is how she has notched 4 of her past 7 victories. As such, play METHOD OF VICTORY: SHEVCHENKO BY TKO/KO (+390) for a chance to multiply your initial wager by nearly 4 times.

Over/Under (O/U)

NO (+100): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE is a good value at even money.

While Grasso has gone the distance in 5 of her past 7 fights, 2 of the past 3 have been stoppages, including the first battle with Shevchenko. For the former champ, she has gone the distance just once in the past 4 fights since Nov. 2020.

If you don’t want to declare a winner but still want some action at a good price, play HOW FIGHT WILL END: KO/TKO (+300) for a chance to triple up, and you win if Grasso or Shevchenko scores the knockout.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.

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