Chiefs rookie center Creed Humphrey could be a major part of the team’s revamped offensive line.
In Super Bowl LV, the Kansas City Chiefs’ offensive line had one of the worst performances in Super Bowl history. Patrick Mahomes was pressured on 29 of of his 56 dropbacks, which is a whopping 52 percent. That means one out of every two times he intended to throw the ball, there was a defender in his face; and to make it even worse, Buccaneers defensive coordinator Todd Bowles only blitzed six times! Kansas City had some injuries and also some optouts in the 2020 season but just to ensure Mahomes never has to go through that again, the team made significant moves this offseason to revamp their offensive line, and one of them was picking up one of the top Centers in the NFL draft, Oklahoma’s Creed Humphrey.
Right now Kansas City has a plethora of stellar offensive lineman starting with a Pro Bowl Tackle in Orlando Brown Jr, All-Pro Guard Joe Thuney, guard Kyle Long, and right tackle Mike Remmers. One thing the Chiefs want is assurance that they have the right guys in the right places. One way to do that is to create competition. Austin Blythe was brought in on a one-year deal from the Rams right before Creed Humphrey fell into their lap in the second round of the draft. Everyone knows that competition brings the best out of players and every rookie needs a veteran to learn from. This Kansas City offensive line will have well rounded depth with all the veterans in the locker room, and that is exactly what Humphrey needs.
Humphrey has the skills to be an All-Pro Center with the Chiefs. One of his best attributes is getting out in space. Oklahoma would pull him out of the line, just to block for his quarterback on roll-outs:
Not only does Humphrey have the capability to pull when needed, he also has the tenacity the Chiefs need out in space. We can absolutely see Mahomes rolling out as Humphrey clears the field for him.
When Humphrey has to be the anchor on the offensive line, he can pick up the blitz and more importantly, a stunt; end over guards and even ends over tackles.
In the run-game, not only does he create lanes inside the A gap, he looks like he absolutely loves downhill zone run blocking.
Inside Zone Run game is simple for the offensive lineman — you basically just block the guy inside your play-side gap, and once that guy is out of the play, you go move upfield after the next guy.
Kansas City will love how Humphrey’s head is always on a swivel, and he’s always looking for the next guy to knock down. He commanded his O-line with Oklahoma by calling out protections, and telling teammates which defenders to pick up at the line of scrimmage.
One thing is for certain: If Humphrey gets out in space, watch for his pancake count at the end of the year!
The Ravens made a sneaky-good trade for veteran Calais Campbell in March. Here’s how that move might rock the entire NFL.
It is as testament to the work of Ravens general manager Eric DeCosta, as well as former general manager Ozzie Newsome, that Baltimore’s NFL team has as complete a roster as you’ll see in the NFL. That’s why they went 14-2 last season and led the league in Total DVOA by an absolutely crushing margin.
But the Ravens’ one obvious roster liability was the one that killed them in the playoffs. They were able to overcome the lack of a true top-tier pass-rusher by blitzing the living daylights out of every quarterback they faced (a league-leading 54.9% blitz rate in 2019 and a 47.1% blitz rate this season), but they were not able to stop the run at a credible rate. And that’s why, in their divisional round against the Titans, the Ravens were waylaid by a 10-6 regular season Titans team that had to change quarterbacks halfway through the season. Running back Derrick Henry defined the game with 30 carries for 195 yards, averaging 4.2 yards after contact per carry.
For a team that was used to dictating the action with the most advanced run game in the NFL, this was a profound embarrassment. It didn’t help that Lamar Jackson looked lost at times against Tennessee’s disguised coverages, but the inability to stop Henry was a continuation of a problem the Ravens had all season — they just couldn’t mask it anymore, and they went home for the postseason far earlier than anybody who was not on the Titans’ sideline could have expected.
Football Outsiders has a series of defensive line metrics led by Adjusted Line Yards. In 2019, Baltimore allowed 4.1 ALY per carry, ranking 10th in the NFL, but their Power Success was a real problem. FO defines Power Success as the “percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown. Also includes runs on first-and-goal or second-and-goal from the two-yard line or closer.” The Ravens allowed Power Success conversions on 68% of those situations, ranking 24th in the league. In that playoff loss to the Titans, the Ravens allowed 7 of 13 third-down completions, and three of three red zone/goal line conversions. The loss that ended Baltimore’s season thus played to type for everything that came before.
Fortunately for DeCosta, head coach John Harbaugh, and defensive coordinator Don Martindale, the Jaguars were holding an “EVERYTHING MUST GO!” player sale through the 2020 offseason, and the Ravens took defensive lineman Calais Campbell off their hands for a fifth-round pick. The move saved Jacksonville $15 million in 2020 cap space, and the Ravens gave Campbell a new two-year, $27 million contract extension, with $20 million guaranteed, in March.
Campbell may be 34 years old, but there’s little about his game that indicates any level of attrition. In 2019, he had 71 total pressures, 35 stops, two forced fumbles, and 10 tackles for loss. He did so playing all across the defensive line, and he’s brought all that to Baltimore’s defense, which could not have possibly needed it more than they did.
Remember that Power Success metric? Well, through two games of the 2020 season, the Ravens are one of two defenses (interestingly enough, the Jaguars are the other) who have not allowed a single conversion in any Power Success scenario.
Campbell has been a major part of that change. He announced his presence with authority in Baltimore’s Week 1 win over the Browns with this one-yard Nick Chubb run, in which Campbell crossed over the slide and wreaked havoc.
And here, on Houston’s first play from scrimmage in their Week 2 loss to Baltimore, running back David Johnson wanted to stretch it to the right side. Mr. Campbell, after clearing right guard Zach Fulton, had other ideas.
And on this play, Campbell and fellow new addition Derek Wolfe conspired to knock Johnson for a two-yard loss.
“I think he does what he needs to do to win ball games,” Campbell said of Martindale at the press conference announcing his extension. This last year, he blitzed more than anybody else in football. And I just think being a part of those blitz-happy teams in the past – Todd Bowles is always up there, and I played for him for two years when I was in Arizona – it’s kind of a similar mentality. But the thing I like about ‘Wink’ is that he’s very creative, and he uses people in different positions. And I believe that my versatility, lining up all over the defensive line and being able to blitz and do – I guess you call it like long movements, long rams, whatever you want to call it – but being able to move laterally and then get vertical is a very big strength of mine still at this point and time in my career. So, I’m eager to see how he uses me.
“To my knowledge, he tries to draw up blitzes for certain players to come free, and I’ve always kind of appreciated the mind of a really good defensive coordinator and just why he’ll draw up certain blitzes and what he sees and stuff. So, I’m really eager to pick his brain and learn from him. I don’t know if I’ll ever become a coach. I don’t know if I want to dedicate that much time to it, but it’s still cool to learn from some of the best coaches. And he’s considered one of the best coaches when it comes to creativity and being able to just take advantage of matchups.”
The perfect marriage of player and coach? Not surprising. The Ravens manage to do that a lot, and in Calais Campbell, they might just have added the missing piece that will bring the franchise its third Lombardi Trophy.
The NFL made their GamePass product available for free until the end of May for fans. Here’s are some tips for watching the All-22.
As we all adjust to a new life while the planet deals with the COVID-19 virus, we are getting used to living without live sports. To help fill the gap, the NFL has made their GamePass product available for free until the end of May. Some of you might be taking the plunge into GamePass, and the “All-22” for the first time. As someone who has been using the product for years, here are some tips on how you can grind the tape like a pro.
Getting Started
At first glance, the NFL GamePass system might be a bit overwhelming. But here are some pointers on how to get started.
When you enter the system, you will see a screen that looks almost identical to this one:
In the top blue bar you see, working from left to right, the following: “Games,” “NFL Originals,” “Film Session,” “Search,” and “Teams.” This is the place to begin. If you click on “Games,” as the above screen indicates, you will then be able to navigate through each week of the season. The default setting is the most recent week, and as you see the Super Bowl is the only game listed.
“NFL Originals” brings you to an incredible library of everything the NFL has produced, from the “America’s Game” series to “Hard Knocks” to “All or Nothing” and everything else you can imagine. “Film Session” is the film series with Brian Baldinger and Ron Jaworski breaking down game film with players like Cameron Jordan, Thomas Davis and Adam Thielen, plus coaches like Doug Pederson. “Search” is a topic on its own, and finally the “Teams” section will allow you to pick a single team, and pull up its entire season:
That’s what you see first when you click on “Teams,” and then when you click on the Baltimore Ravens. All of their 2019 games in reverse chronological order, plus you can also find original content featuring the Ravens such as “Sound FX: Ray Lewis” or “America’s Game: 2000 Baltimore Ravens.”
So now, let’s watch a game. To get started, say with the Super Bowl, you drag your cursor over the game, and you will see the following:
These are the four different ways of watching a game. The “Full Replay” is just the replay of the broadcast version, complete with the replays. As we will see in a moment, that also allows you to skip throughout the game by selecting a particular play. The “Condensed” version is an edited, shortened version of the broadcast version, usually somewhere between 30 to 40 minutes. Replays are stripped out, and you cannot skip around between plays. “Listen” allows you to hear the radio calls from both the home and the away teams. Then finally, the “Coaches Film” brings you to the All-22 goodness.
So let’s click on that and get started:
The player immediately brings you to the opening kickoff of the game. Now there are a few things to note before we start talking about the film itself. In the upper right corner you see the bar graph. Clicking on that allows you to view stats for the game. In the bottom left you’ll see the “-10” and “+10” options. That allows you to rewind or fast forward each play by ten seconds. That and the “Play/Pause” button are going to get a workout.
You’ll also see what looks to be a three item list, next to the stats option in the upper right. Click on that and the film window will shrink, but it will pull up a very handy feature for you:
That brings up the play-by-play list for the entire game. So if you wanted to work through the game focusing on all running plays, all passing plays, or you know a play in particular you wanted to watch, say, a huge third down conversion in the fourth quarter, you can click to that play and within seconds, there it is:
Look away San Francisco 49ers fans…
So now we know the basic mechanics. Now the fun begins. Let’s talk about what to watch for on the All-22.
With just four teams remaining, here’s one thing each of these teams must do if they want to make it to Super Bowl LIV.
Losing in any elimination game gives you the entire offseason to think about the things you should have done. For the Tennessee Titans, Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, and Green Bay Packers, there’s still that one last hope for the Super Bowl that no other team still has this season. The AFC and NFC Championship game entrants have faced off in the regular season already.
In Week 10, the Titans came back from a 10-0 Chiefs lead, and Patrick Mahomes’ three-touchdown performance, to beat Kansas City 35-32. Ryan Tannehill, still in his first few games as Marcus Mariota’s replacement, threw a 23-yard touchdown pass to receiver Adam Humphries with 29 seconds left in regulation, and Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker missed a potential game-tying 52-yard field goal at the end of regulation. At least the Chiefs can say they were in that game.
The Packers, not so much. In Week 12, the 49ers beat the daylights out of Green Bay, 37-8. Aaron Rodgers averaged 3.15 yards per completion when he was able to throw the ball, the Packers went 1-for-15 on third down, and a defense that had been relatively on point allowed Jimmy Garoppolo to look like Joe Montana.
Still, the good news for both losing teams in this instance is that neither the Chiefs nor the Packers have lost a single game since those particular defeats. Mahomes seems to have recovered from his in-season injuries, Green Bay’s passing offense is more explosive, Kansas City’s defense is far better than it used to be, and the Packers’ coverage units seem to have recovered from what 49ers head coach and play-designer Kyle Shanahan did to them.
So, if we take the conference title games as new entities (as we should) while attempting to learn from the past, here’s one thing each of the remaining teams should do if they want to make it to Super Bowl LIV.
Though any are unknown, every player in the postseason has the opportunity to turn that around. Here are eight such players.
Every NFL postseason has its share of surprise performers. Whether it’s Otto Graham in the Browns’ first year in the NFL schooling the Los Angeles Rams in the 1950 championship game, or L.C. Greenwood — perhaps the least-known member of the Steel Curtain front four — racking up four sacks against the Cowboys in Super Bowl X, or then-Bills backup quarterback and current Colts head coach Frank Reich authoring the biggest comeback in NFL history against the Houston Oilers in the 1992 wild-card round, or Washington running back Timmy Smith shocking the Broncos with 204 rushing yards in Super Bowl XXII, it’s just as likely that the most important postseason performance comes from a guy whose name you’re not familiar with just yet.
This postseason is no exception, and there are all kinds of potential stars you might not know who are mere hours away from their breakout performance. Here’s one potential secret superstar for each of the eight divisional round teams this weekend.
Over the last four weeks of the 2019 season, the 49ers’ formerly dominant defense has taken multiple hits. Can this be solved?
From Weeks 1-12 of the 2019 season, only the New England Patriots could claim to have a better pass defense than the San Francisco 49ers, and that’s only because the 2019 Patriots were (and are) playing pass defense at a historically great rate. But the 49ers, led by defensive coordinator Robert Saleh, weren’t far off. From Weeks 1-12, San Francisco allowed opposing quarterbacks to post a QBR of 72.50, and only the Patriots were better at 50.55. The 49ers allowed a Positive Play Rate (plays in which the Expected Points Added were above zero) of 37%, and only New England was better at 36%. Per Sports Info Solutions, the 49ers’ defense saved 188.5 points below the average, and opposing offenses had minus -140.3 EPA against them. Again, only the Patriots were better in either category.
No defense allowed fewer completions (198) or passing yards (1,854), and though there was a vulnerability in touchdowns allowed (11), matching the interception total with 11 seemed to make that problem go away. The 49ers were 10-1 after 12 weeks, their only loss in overtime to Seattle, and the defense was the biggest part of that success equation.
Then, regression happened in a big hurry. The 49ers went 2-2 in their next four games, including a Week 15 loss to the Falcons that put everybody on alert. Losing 20-17 to the Ravens is one thing, but allowing Matt Ryan to complete 22 of 34 passes for 234 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions in a 29-22 stunner? Well, that’s not the act of a top defense. And over the last month, the 49ers’ defense has been anything but.
San Francisco has had a Positive Play Rate of 49% in that time. Their opposing QBR allowed has jumped to 102.39. They’ve saved 15.3 points above the average (the Packers have led the league in that time at 81.1), and their EPA of 24.3 is the fifth-worst in football, behind the Lions, Jaguars, Raiders, and Giants. They’ve allowed 95 completions for 987 yards, 10 touchdowns, and just one interception over that 2-2 stretch. Basically, the team that will take the field once again against the Seahawks this Sunday in hope of gaining the first overall seed in the NFL playoff picture has a defense playing like you’d expect from a team awaiting a top 10 slot in the draft.
Pass rush has certainly been a problem. From Weeks 1-12, San Francisco led the NFL with 45 total sacks, and 4.09 sacks per game. And while they were in the middle of the pack in quarterback hits (71) and hurries (109), the extent to which Nick Bosa and his buddies on the defensive line were able to demolish the intentions of enemy quarterbacks went a long way to disguising those other numbers.
Over the last four weeks, it’s been a very different story. San Francisco is tied for last in the league with the Browns and Seahawks with just three total sacks, and though they’ve kept the hits and hurries going to the point where the team’s overall pressure percentage has gone up from 29.67% to 31.06%, those pressures are not leading to breakups of big plays. Quite the opposite.
And as is the case with most Legion of Boom-style defenses, this one doesn’t blitz a lot. The 49ers have the fourth-lowest blitz percentage in the NFL at 20.3%, which was fine when they were getting home with just four defenders. But that’s not happening now, and the pressure/coverage schism is negatively affecting both sides at the worst possible time.
Injuries have also played a factor. That the 49ers’ pass defense has declined severely at the time time the team has been missing safety Jaquiski Tartt is absolutely no coincidence. Tartt suffered a broken rib in the team’s Week 13 loss to the Ravens, and the hope is he’ll be back for the Seattle game. He’s been the team’s best safety this season, allowing just 13 catches on 25 targets for 98 yards and one touchdown all season, and the efforts of Jimmie Ward and Marcell Harris have not matched up.
In the last four weeks of the 2019 season, 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh has struggled to keep up with injuries, and opponents keying on vulnerable tendencies. (Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports)
Saleh was also without Richard Sherman after the veteran cornerback suffered a hamstring strain against the Saints in Week 14, missed the Falcons game, and returned in Week 16 against the Rams. Sherman has been one of the five best cornerbacks in the NFL this season, clamping down on enemy receivers, so the absence of these two great players would go a long way to explaining the current malaise. Not to mention the losses of edge-rusher Dee Ford, who’s been out with a hamstring issue since Week 14, and linebacker Kwon Alexander, who was lost for the regular season to a torn pectoral in early November.
The result of all this? Plays like this 10-yard touchdown pass from Jared Goff to receiver Brandin Cooks in San Francisco’s 34-31 win over the Rams last Saturday. Cooks gets free to the left uncontested, linebackers Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw bite on Goff’s boot-action, and three defenders follow Robert Woods on his crossing route. Cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon gets close near the end of the play, but not close enough. When this defense isn’t reading correctly, there isn’t really a lockdown scheme, or a current group of healthy players, in line to make up for it.
Warner’s 46-yard interception return for a touchdown near the end of the first half was one example of how this defense works as it’s supposed to. The four-man line compresses the pocket, forcing Goff to make an off-platform throw. Warner reads the quick pass to running back Malcolm Brown all the way, and that’s that.
There is another vulnerability the 49ers defense has, and opposing offensive coordinators are starting to go after them heavily to attack it.
Stephon Gilmore and Tre’Devious White each could claim that they’ve been the NFL’s best cornerback this season. Who’s right?
In today’s NFL, when you have a lockdown cornerback, you do everything you can to keep him on your roster. Generally speaking, if you don’t, your pass defense can fall apart quickly. Replacing such players can be exceedingly difficult, especially if you’re trying to do so with young cornerbacks. The combination of athletic skill and situational awareness required to define the position at the highest level is rare, and it generally doesn’t last too long. By the time your smarts catch up with your quicks, your quicks can start to fade away.
The 11-3 Patriots and 10-4 Bills, AFC East foes who will face off for the second time this season on Saturday, have proven to be recent exceptions. Buffalo selected South Carolina cornerback Stephon Gilmore with the 10th overall pick in the 2012 draft, and it didn’t take long for Gilmore to become one of the best in the NFL at his position. In five years with the Bills, Gilmore never allowed more than 62.3% of his targets to become receptions. And though he gave up touchdowns (five in both 2015 and 2016), this was often a reflection of the fact that he was facing off with the opponent’s best receiver on a week-to-week basis with little in the way of help. In addition, some who had observed Gilmore thought he might be more effective in a defense that had him playing more man coverage. By the time the 2016 season was over, Gilmore was a highly-prized free agent-to-be.
This is when the Patriots swarmed in, giving Gilmore a five-year, $65 million contract with $40 million in guaranteed money. It’s been a bargain through the first three years of the deal, as Gilmore has improved every season in Bill Belichick’s defenses. This season, through 14 games, he’s tied for the NFL lead with six interceptions, and he’s allowed just 38 receptions in 82 targets for 444 yards, no touchdowns, and an opponent passer rating of 32.8, per Pro Football Focus. If you were to hand Gilmore the NFL Defensive Player of the Year award today, it would be tough to argue with you, and if you wanted to argue that he’s become the game’s best cornerback, the arguments would dissipate even further.
(AP Photo/Adrian Kraus)
What the Numbers Say
When the Bills lost Gilmore to free agency, part of their recovery plan was to select LSU cornerback Tre’Davious White with the 27th overall pick in the 2017 draft. White immediately fulfilled Buffalo’s belief in him with a rookie season better than any of Gilmore’s in Buffalo — 39 catches allowed in 81 targets for 601 yards, three touchdowns, four interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 64.9. Like Gilmore, White has become Buffalo’s top cornerback against top opponents for one of the NFL’s best and most consistent defenses. Like Gilmore, he had two interceptions against his opponent last Sunday (the Bengals for Gilmore, the Steelers for White), which tied him with Gilmore for the NFL lead with six.
Through the first 15 weeks of the 2019 season, four NFL cornerbacks taking at least 50% of their team’s defensive snaps have allowed no touchdowns on the season: Gilmore, White, Jacksonville’s D.J. Hayden, and New England’s Jason McCourty. McCourty has one interception; Hayden has none. Only New England’s J.C. Jackson (28.6) has a lower opponent passer rating allowed this season than Gilmore’s 32.8, and White’s 43.9. Give Jackson credit for his excellent season, but he’s been targeted just 47 times.
The overall statistical comparisons between Gilmore and White are fascinating.
Gilmore: 38 receptions allowed on 82 targets for 444 yards, 152 air yards, no touchdowns, six interceptions, and that 32.8 passer rating allowed.
White: 44 completions allowed on 84 targets for 532 yards, 202 air yards, no touchdowns, six interceptions, and that 43.9 passer rating allowed.
And though Gilmore has the edge on White this season in passer rating allowed, it should also be noted that per PFF, White leads all cornerbacks in passer rating allowed since the start of the 2017 season at 60.3. This is closer than you may think, and White has been the superior player through the first three seasons of either player’s career.
(Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports)
Duelin’ Daltons
One other thing the two cornerbacks have in common: If you’re Andy Dalton, and you’re trying to complete an intermediate pass on an angular route to receiver Tyler Boyd, you do not want either of these guys anywhere near your target. Here’s what happened in Buffalo’s 21-17 Week 3 win over the Bengals, when Dalton tried White (No. 27) against Buffalo’s Cover-3 shell:
And here’s how it went on Sunday’s 34-13 Patriots win over Cincinnati, when Dalton tried to hit Boyd from the right slot against New England’s man-based coverage, with Gilmore (No. 24) playing the slot:
Both of Gilmore’s interceptions on Sunday came against Boyd, who hilariously said after the game that he “won the majority of the matchups. But the two plays [Gilmore] made were great plays. He sat on the curl and played great leverage on the out-route. He was already in perfect leverage. We should have [called] a slant.”
The tape tells a different story, Mr. Boyd. Gilmore allowed two receptions to Cincinnati’s confident receiver, and had two interceptions. The interception shown here, in which Gilmore ran Boyd’s route better than Boyd did was also a 64-yard touchdown return, and Gilmore hasn’t allowed a touchdown all season. So, we can confidently say who won that battle.
As for White, he was fairly dominant against the Steelers in a 17-10 Bills win that clinched a playoff spot for his team, with the Patriots matchup looming ever larger. He allowed five completions on nine targets for 50 yards, 20 air yards, and two picks. White’s second interception of the night came as quarterback Devlin “Duck” Hodges threw… well, a duck to receiver Diontae Johnson on a quick out route, As Gilmore did with Boyd, White ran Johnson’s route better than Johnson did.
“When I was in coverage, I got a good read on the route,” White said after the game. “I just broke on it and just believed in my film study and the things that I’ve been seeing earlier in the game, and the quarterback threw the ball and I was able to make a big-time play.”
He’s made a lot of those this season, as had Gilmore.
So, which of these cornerbacks is better? It may come down to the type of defense you prefer to play, and the type of cornerback that thrives most in your scheme.
Ex-Air Raid college coach Kliff Kingsbury came into the NFL with one plan. Then, it all changed — and the Cardinals are far better for it.
In 2018, the Arizona Cardinals put up one of the most pathetic sustained offensive performances in NFL history. They finished last in the league in offensive DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), Football Outsiders’ opponent-adjusted efficiency metric. They finished last in the NFL in the first half of games, in the second half of games. They had the worst offensive DVOA in the NFL both on the road and at home. No team was worse when behind in a game, and on those blissful and exceedingly rare occasions when they had a lead, they were last in offensive DVOA then, as well. They finished last when their quarterback was operating out of the shotgun formation, and next-to-last when their quarterback was working under center.
Their quarterback, rookie first-round pick Josh Rosen, put up the single worst season in the history of FO’s other primary efficiency metric, DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement). While DVOA is a play-to-play measurement of efficiency (or not), DYAR is cumulative. Football Outsiders has published data for every snap in every season going back to 1986, and no quarterback has ever had a worse DYAR through a season than Rosen’s 1,145. This essentially means that, adjusted for situation and opponent, Rosen was a liability through the season to the tune of 1.145 yards under the league average. Not 1.145 yards behind Patrick Mahomes, but 1,145 yards under the league average.
So, it was not a surprise when head coach Steve Wilks was fired after the season. Offensive coordiantor Mike McCoy had already been fired halfway through the season, and interim offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich went to Tampa to work once again with Bruce Arians, his coaching mentor. In their place came Kliff Kingsbury, the Air-Raid wunderkind who had a hand in the collegiate development of everybody from Mahomes to Baker Mayfield to Johnny Manziel (ahem, the college version) to Case Keenum, and on and on.
There was some suspicion that Kingsbury could take his concepts to the NFL and win, though. Kingsbury’s version of the Air Raid was typical in that it was a high-passing, high-volume offense. With a ton of “10” personnel (one running back, no tight ends, four receivers), and over six seasons with Kingsbury as their head coach from 2013 through 2018, the Texas Tech Red Raiders threw over 3,600 passes. Only Mike Leach’s Washington State Cougars threw more often. Kingsbury presided over offenses that ran over 6,000 total plays — only Baylor and Clemson ran more.
(Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports)
Coaches who come from college insistent on running their old stuff and refusing to adapt to the NFL’s realities have always been in for a rude awakening. And through the first four weeks of the 2019 season, Kingsbury, and his able lieutenant Kyler Murray, the Texas A&M and Oklahoma alum selected first overall in the 2019 draft, seemed to be on that same pace. Per Sharp Football Stats, the Cardinals ran “10” personnel on 59% of their plays. This was by far the highest rate in the league over that time; the Seahawks ranked second with 11% of their plays out of “10” personnel, and eight teams didn’t run a single play out of that personnel.
Murray wasn’t really helped by the packages, either — Arizona threw the ball on 76% of their plays, and Murray completed 69 of 108 passes for a 6.4 yards per attempt average, one touchdown, two interceptions, 13 sacks, and a quarterback rating of 77.4.
This was not sustainable. Not with a receiver group Murray was still getting familiar with, a sub-par offensive line, and a running game that had yet to become what it would become. Plays like this may work in those 54-45 Big 12 After Dark pointfests, but the NFL has generally had better answers.
“I think the biggest takeaway is there’s no kind of throwaway plays in the NFL,” Kingsbury said back in early October. “In college, you may have 85, 90 snaps. There’s a handful that are kind of throwaways and you look back at them and [say], ‘Hey, that’s all right that there were five plays that maybe we didn’t have the best call on and it didn’t work out.’
However, an interesting thing happened on the way to Kingsbury’s NFL irrelevance. Actually, several things. FO’s Aaron Schatz recently pointed out that since Week 4, the Cardinals rank third in Offensive DVOA, behind only Dallas and Baltimore.
Blink once, blink twice? Yes, I know. That is not a typo.
Since Week 4, the Arizona Cardinals rank No. 3 in the NFL in offensive DVOA. Arizona! They were so horrendous a year ago! Since Week 4, behind only Dallas and Baltimore.
Unwanted in Miami after six years as a decent quarterback, Ryan Tannehill is rebooting his career remarkably with the Tennessee Titans.
The big story in the Chiefs’ Week 10 game against the Titans was supposed to be the return of Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes after the reigning NFL Most Valuable Player missed two games with a dislocated kneecap. Mahomes did his best upon his return, riddling Tennessee’s defense for 446 passing yards and three touchdown passes. But the quarterback on the winning side in this 35-32 contest was the other guy — Ryan Tannehill, starting his fourth straight game after the Titans’ coaching staff determined that Marcus Mariota wasn’t getting it done.
Tannehill didn’t blow anybody away with his statistics — he completed 13 of 19 passes for 181 yards, two touchdown passes and no interceptions, adding 37 rushing yards on three carries — but it was his 23-yard touchdown pass to receiver Adam Humphries with 29 seconds left that put the Titans ahead for good, aided as they were by a blocked Kansas City field goal attempt in the game’s final seconds.
Below, Humphries (No. 10) runs what starts out as a slot fade kind of thing, but turns back inside. Cornerback Rashad Fenton (No. 27) can’t keep up, and safety Tyrann Mathieu (No. 32) is leaning outside, so he can’t get there in time. Humphries has an easy play for the touchdown, and Tannehill does a nice job of not only hitting Humphries in stride, but using his head to drag Mathieu outside.
“They went 2-Man (coverage), and I knew if Ryan had time to throw it, I could wait on the seam, and it worked out for us,” Humphries said after the game.
“Well, I think that’s what it comes down to — the quarterback,” Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel added of the touchdown pass, and Tannehill’s play overall — on the final drive, the Titans went 61 yards in 53 seconds, and Tannehill also scrambled for 18 yards and hit tight end Anthony Firkser for a 20-yard completion. “That’s what we see every week in this league, is those guys managing that drill, that two-minute drill, that tempo procedure. Getting guys where they want them to be. Making guys believe if they do their job, we’re going to score. If we protect, and if we run great routes, and that’s the quarterback’s job – they raise everybody’s level of performance.”
Running back Derrick Henry, who ran for 188 yards and two touchdowns on 23 carries, was all too happy to talk about how his quarterback performed in that crucial drive when Henry didn’t touch the ball.
“I think he knew that we would go down there and score. Receivers get open, he’d get it to them, and that’s what we did. I had a lot of confidence that we would, you know. And we did, so I’m happy we were able to get the win.”
“He was big time,” Humphries concluded. “He made plays with his legs, and he was just being poised. He stepped up in the pocket and made great throws, and it was great to see that.”
Traded from the Dolphins to the Titans on March 15 as part of Miami’s roster purge, Tannehill had completed 62.8% of his passes for 20,434 yards, 123 touchdowns, and 75 interceptions over six seasons for his old team. He was never grossly inefficient, but he was generally inconsistent — especially in the pocket, where he had a tendency to bail and run and leave things up to random chance. He had five different offensive coordinators in six seasons with the Dolphins, and for a guy who started only two seasons at quarterback at Texas A&M (he was a receiver in 2008 and 2009 before switching to QB for his junior and senior seasons), that’s a lot of noise to process.
Tannehill had a $17 million cap hit as part of the $77 million contract extension he signed with the Dolphins in 2015. Negotiations between Miami and Tennessee, as well as Tannehill and his team, created a one-year, $7 million deal that could perk up to $12 million with incentives. The Dolphins paid Tannehill’s $5 million signing bonus as part of the renegotiation, which left Tennessee on the hook for a 2019 cap hit of $1.875 million. The Titans also gave up a 2019 seventh-round pick and a fourth-round pick in 2020. In return, Miami sent a 2019 sixth-round pick.
The deal has turned into one of the best bargains of the season, and it’s turned the Titans’ season around. Tennessee was 2-4 when Tannehill replaced Mariota; the Titans are now 5-5. Through the first half of the season, they ranked 23rd in Football Outsiders’ opponent-adjusted metrics; they’re third behind only Baltimore and Dallas since.
And in the red zone, the Titans have become an unstoppable force with their new quarterback. They’ve scored touchdowns on all 10 of their excursions into the red zone. Vrabel has credited Tannehill’s quick release and decisiveness, two things Mariota struggled with before.
“Ryan has an undying belief that we are going to score every time we get down there, and he should,” quarterbacks coach Pat O’Hara concluded. “Every quarterback should. We started working hard on our red zone efficiency in the spring. It’s paying dividends now.”
It’s not just what he’s doing in the red zone, though. For weeks 7 through 10 (the Titans had a Week 11 bye), Tannehill ranks fourth in the NFL in yards per attempt at 8.5, he’s tied for third with eight touchdown passes and he has just three interceptions. He ranks eighth in passing yards with 1,017, and he’s fifth in passer rating at 107.5.
Unwanted in Miami after six years as a decent starting quarterback, Ryan Tannehill is re-making his career remarkably with the Titans.
The big story in the Chiefs’ Week 10 game against the Titans was supposed to be the return of Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes after the reigning NFL Most Valuable Player missed two games with a dislocated kneecap. Mahomes did his best upon his return, riddling Tennessee’s defense for 446 passing yards and three touchdown passes. But the quarterback on the winning side in this 35-32 contest was the other guy — Ryan Tannehill, starting his fourth straight game after the Titans’ coaching staff determined that Marcus Mariota wasn’t getting it done.
Tannehill didn’t blow anybody away with his statistics — he completed 13 of 19 passes for 181 yards, two touchdown passes and no interceptions, adding 37 rushing yards on three carries — but it was his 23-yard touchdown pass to receiver Adam Humphries with 29 seconds left that put the Titans ahead for good, aided as they were by a blocked Kansas City field goal attempt in the game’s final seconds.
Below, Humphries (No. 10) runs what starts out as a slot fade kind of thing, but turns back inside. Cornerback Rashad Fenton (No. 27) can’t keep up, and safety Tyrann Mathieu (No. 32) is leaning outside, so he can’t get there in time. Humphries has an easy play for the touchdown, and Tannehill does a nice job of not only hitting Humphries in stride, but using his head to drag Mathieu outside.
“They went 2-Man (coverage), and I knew if Ryan had time to throw it, I could wait on the seam, and it worked out for us,” Humphries said after the game.
“Well, I think that’s what it comes down to — the quarterback,” Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel added of the touchdown pass, and Tannehill’s play overall — on the final drive, the Titans went 61 yards in 53 seconds, and Tannehill also scrambled for 18 yards and hit tight end Anthony Firkser for a 20-yard completion. “That’s what we see every week in this league, is those guys managing that drill, that two-minute drill, that tempo procedure. Getting guys where they want them to be. Making guys believe if they do their job, we’re going to score. If we protect, and if we run great routes, and that’s the quarterback’s job – they raise everybody’s level of performance.”
Running back Derrick Henry, who ran for 188 yards and two touchdowns on 23 carries, was all too happy to talk about how his quarterback performed in that crucial drive when Henry didn’t touch the ball.
“I think he knew that we would go down there and score. Receivers get open, he’d get it to them, and that’s what we did. I had a lot of confidence that we would, you know. And we did, so I’m happy we were able to get the win.”
“He was big time,” Humphries concluded. “He made plays with his legs, and he was just being poised. He stepped up in the pocket and made great throws, and it was great to see that.”
Traded from the Dolphins to the Titans on March 15 as part of Miami’s roster purge, Tannehill had completed 62.8% of his passes for 20,434 yards, 123 touchdowns, and 75 interceptions over six seasons for his old team. He was never grossly inefficient, but he was generally inconsistent — especially in the pocket, where he had a tendency to bail and run and leave things up to random chance. He had five different offensive coordinators in six seasons with the Dolphins, and for a guy who started only two seasons at quarterback at Texas A&M (he was a receiver in 2008 and 2009 before switching to QB for his junior and senior seasons), that’s a lot of noise to process.
Tannehill had a $17 million cap hit as part of the $77 million contract extension he signed with the Dolphins in 2015. Negotiations between Miami and Tennessee, as well as Tannehill and his team, created a one-year, $7 million deal that could perk up to $12 million with incentives. The Dolphins paid Tannehill’s $5 million signing bonus as part of the renegotiation, which left Tennessee on the hook for a 2019 cap hit of $1.875 million. The Titans also gave up a 2019 seventh-round pick and a fourth-round pick in 2020. In return, Miami sent a 2019 sixth-round pick.
The deal has turned into one of the best bargains of the season, and it’s turned the Titans’ season around. Tennessee was 2-4 when Tannehill replaced Mariota; the Titans are now 5-5. Through the first half of the season, they ranked 23rd in Football Outsiders’ opponent-adjusted metrics; they’re third behind only Baltimore and Dallas since.
And in the red zone, the Titans have become an unstoppable force with their new quarterback. They’ve scored touchdowns on all 10 of their excursions into the red zone. Vrabel has credited Tannehill’s quick release and decisiveness, two things Mariota struggled with before.
“Ryan has an undying belief that we are going to score every time we get down there, and he should,” quarterbacks coach Pat O’Hara concluded. “Every quarterback should. We started working hard on our red zone efficiency in the spring. It’s paying dividends now.”
It’s not just what he’s doing in the red zone, though. For weeks 7 through 10 (the Titans had a Week 11 bye), Tannehill ranks fourth in the NFL in yards per attempt at 8.5, he’s tied for third with eight touchdown passes and he has just three interceptions. He ranks eighth in passing yards with 1,017, and he’s fifth in passer rating at 107.5.
