From Week 5 through Week 8, the Cardinals turned away from “10” personnel, running it just 23% of the time, while loading up on “11” personnel (one running back, one right end, three receivers) on 45% of their snaps, and “12” personnel (one running back, two tight ends, two receivers) on 19%. Through the first four weeks of the season, Murray completed 62.7% of his passes overall for 1,071 yards, four touchdowns, four interceptions, 20 sacks, and a quarterback rating of 78.8. From Weeks 5-8, Murray completed 65% of his passes for 917 yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions, five sacks, and a quarterback rating of 95.5.
And then, from Weeks 9-11 (Arizona had a Week 12 bye), Murray really started to make things happen. Now used to more balanced personnel sets against NFL defenses, Murray completed 67.9% of his passes for 715 yards, seven touchdowns, one interception, nine sacks, and a quarterback rating of 106.7. This time period included two close losses to the 49ers and their top-tier defense in which Murray not only became the only quarterback to post a passer rating over 100 against San Francisco, he did so twice.
Now, teams were not only having to deal with Murray’s impressive velocity and accuracy as a passer with more interesting formations (as on this 88-yard touchdown pass to receiver Andy Isabella in Week 9, with tight end Maxx Williams and running back Kenyan Drake in the backfield)…
…but also, runs like this 22-yard touchdown out of “11” personnel, where the potential passing and rushing elements are more blurred.
This also brings up the element of play-action, where — over the Cardinals’ last three games — Murray has completed 71.1% of his passes for 341 yards, 9.0 yards per attempt, five touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 127.3. Over that three-game stretch, only Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson have higher passer ratings, but no quarterback has thrown for more touchdowns when using play-action.
“I think it gives defenses more to prepare for,” receiver Larry Fitzgerald said in late October of Kingsbury’s switch-ups. “You can’t just say, ‘Look, this is the personnel they’re always going to be in. They run it always out of this personnel or they throw it always out of that personnel.’
“I think he looks at all those tendencies and he wants to make sure he’s breaking those tendencies week in and week out, because defenses are so good now in the National Football League in terms of matching up with your personnel and doing things to try and take away your best plays. You have to be able to mix it up. You have to be able to do things to get people off the trail.”
Kingsbury agreed in a way that intimated it was never going to be a “10” personnel force-feed all season long.
“As we’ve become more comfortable with our personnel and they’ve become more comfortable with how we coach and how we install and how we operate, I think that’s what you’re seeing,” he concluded. “We’re playing some really good defenses coming up, so we’re going to have to tighten things up and continue to be creative and put those guys in positions to be successful.”
It’s working exceedingly well, and in a league where offensive play-designers generally don’t change their formational philosophies to this degree — especially in their first seasons at this level — Kingsbury’s ability to not only change things on the fly, but to keep the changes coming in ways that are tailored to his personnel — is one of the more interesting and impressive stories of the 2019 season.