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Is the Saints defense Tom Brady’s new kryptonite?

Touchdown Wire’s Laurie Fitzpatrick breaks down the film to determine why Tom Brady has struggled against the Saints.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will host the New Orleans Saints in one of the more intriguing games of Week 15 on Sunday night.

Since joining the Bucs last season, Tom Brady is 0-3 against the Saints. Have the Saints become Brady’s kryptonite, as the Giants seemingly were back when Brady was in New England?

The Bucs (10-3) are a 10½-point favorite over the Saints (6-7), according to Tipico Sportsbook, but it likely still will be a battle for Brady. Last season, Brady threw five interceptions in two games against the Saints. In the most recent Bucs-Saints matchup, back in Week 8, Brady threw four touchdown passes. But he also threw two interceptions (including a pick-six) as the Saints came out with the win, 36-27.

The Saints are looking to climb their way into wild-card position, but Friday they learned that head coach Sean Payton will miss Sunday’s game after testing positive for COVID-19.

However, the Saints defense will get a boost from the return of defensive end Cameron Jordan, who is back from the COVID-19/reserve list.

Brady praised the Saints defense when asked about the matchup.

“They’ve got a great, powerful front,” Brady told media on Thursday. “They’ve played together a long time. It’s been one of the top defenses in the league. [New Orleans defensive coordinator] Dennis Allen does a great job preparing those guys. They’re just a very fundamentally sound defense. They make you earn it.”

The Saints started 5-2 on the season before their defense was beset by injuries. They’ve lost five of six since that hot start.

New Orleans boasts a bend-but-don’t-break pass defense which ranks 18th in the NFL in passing yards allowed — but ranks seventh in touchdown passes allowed and eighth in completion percentage.

Marcus Williams is ranked as the fourth-best safety in the league by Pro Football Focus. As Williams patrols over the top and Marcus Davenport applies pressure on the edge, it likely will be up to inside linebacker Demario Davis to disrupt Brady.

If there is one thing Brady hates, it’s the inside pass rush. Back in Week 8, there were several key plays that showed how much it impacts Brady’s performance.

In the clip below, it’s first down and the Saints wanted to bring pressure. So they sent Davis up the middle one-on-one against the right guard. A late stunt from the backside of the play got into the face of Brady, who rushed the throw that led to an interception.

Although Davis was picked up by a blocker, key players on the defensive line forced double-teams. That allowed defensive tackle David Onyemata to get in Brady’s face up the middle and force him to get rid of the ball.

In the clip below, Davis burst through the line untouched, and Brady was fortunate to get rid of the ball.

Once Brady is feeling the blitz, the Buccaneers often try quick passes in hopes of getting yards after the catch to move the sticks.

Davis likely will have a big job this week. Back in Week 8, he covered the middle of the field and also was the main player expected to make reads on quick screens and quick outs with the responsibility to protect the line of scrimmage.

These quick outs have been key for the Buccaneers this season, but the Saints shut them down in the previous matchup.

In the clip below, the Saints’ defensive backs dropped back into zone coverage when the Buccaneers lined up with twin receivers on the outside. This is done so that rub routes by receivers aren’t as effective.

This is where it will be key for Saints defenders to make solo tackles on the outside.

Below, cornerback Marshon Lattimore shows how important that is with a third-down stop against Buccaneers wideout Chris Godwin.

In two games against the Saints last season, Brady only completed 60.8% of his passes for 6.05 yards per attempt. He threw for 375 yards and four touchdowns against them in Week 8 of this season, but he also tossed those two costly picks.

The Saints can take away key Buccaneers weapons if they are able to successfully follow a plan similar to what they used in Week 8. The keys this week for the Saints defense will be the inside rush by Davis, his ability to read quick passes on the outside, and Lattimore continuing to dominate on the outside.

If New Orleans can execute in those areas, the Saints have an opportunity to upset the mighty Bucs.

Film Room: Bills’ second-half adjustments almost worked against the Buccaneers

The Bills have struggled to stay consistent on offense throughout the season. Against the Buccaneers, it was a tale of two halves once again.

The Buffalo Bills looked like they were going to be on the losing end of a blowout on Sunday against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. At halftime, the score was 3-24 and in that entire first half, the Bills didn’t convert a single third down, (0-5). Coming into the game, the Bills ranked third in the NFL on third-down conversions.

So, it wasn’t a great sign that they weren’t able to sustain a drive for the first thirty minutes of the game. Their red-zone issues also contributed to the deficit, as they were 0-1 there, and settled for a field goal when the offense got all the way up to the Buccaneers’ three-yard line.

If we look at the stats in the first half, the Bills had 43 rushing yards, but none of those yards were by a running back in the backfield. This was the first time since 1991, where a team went an entire half without a single rushing attempt by a running back.

Were the Bills trying to make a statement after the Patriots game the week before? Or did they value the Bucs run defense a little too much, as they were second in the NFL in rushing yards allowed.

Throughout the game, quarterback Josh Allen passed the ball on 11 out of 13 third downs, even when they saw a third-and-3 in the second quarter, they came out in an empty set.

That being said, what the Bills did in the second half to make a comeback and to take the game into overtime was nothing short of a miracle.

Lets go to the film to see what changed from the first to the second half.

To start the game, the Bills drew up some run plays for Josh Allen, but they weren’t successful because of the lack of variety from the backfield, its easy to stop a one-dimensional offense. As a defense, you can double team an assignment when there is zero threat from the other weapons.

In order to stop Allen from running it with his legs, inside linebacker Devin White remained a quarterback spy for the rest of the game. This would ultimately be used against them in the second half.

When it came to throwing the ball in the first half, Allen only had time for flat short yardage passes against the fierce pass rush of the Buccaneers. They often blitzed two extra players, bringing a total of six defenders, putting pressure on Allen. This led to three sacks, one tackle for loss, two quarterback hits and an interception all in the first half.

The Bills had to make some adjustments when the second half rolled around; they used that quarterback spy and nickel defense to their advantage. With more defensive backs, and an inside linebacker assigned to the quarterback, the run-game was sure to succeed.

On the Bills’ second drive in the second half, Devin Singletary saw his first carry, and it went for 29 yards.

With this run success, and the Buccaneers defense still in a 4-2-5 defensive look, the defense was forced to honor the misdirection, which then opened up the middle of the field.

With one linebacker as spy, the Bills noticed a hole in Tampa Bay’s middle defense, so they started running more run-pass-options. This allowed Allen to get rid of the ball quicker, or keep it if the read was there.

That was successful for the next two quarters of the game.

As the Bills closed the margin to only seven points, they marched down the field to get the ball out quick, not allowing that pressure to get to Allen.

With the RPO, the Bills finally found their success. This completely turned their offense around from the first to second half. The Bills didn’t allow a single sack, or tackle for loss.

In the end, the Buccaneers stopped running zone prevent, and went back to blitzing extra guys, but this time running press man-coverage on the outside. Each Bills receiver was locked up at the line of scrimmage and it was up to Allen to throw his targets open if he was able to get the ball out in time.

Ultimately, the Bills’ second half adjustments worked. Allen ended the game with 308 yards and two touchdowns through the air and ran for 109 yards and a touchdown; becoming the fourth quarterback in the league to throw for 300 plus yards and rush for 100 or more in the same game.

But in the end, when the Bucs went back to the plan from the beginning of the game, pressure the quarterback, stack the box and early take away the quarterback’s first read. This put the Bills back to squareone, as they only ran the ball one-time in overtime and through the air, only the flat or check-downs were open down field.

The Bills went three-and-out, as they weren’t able to move the ball which put it back into Tom Brady’s hands. Generally speaking, you don’t want that.

In the second half, the Bills saw success with the RPO but their lack of run-game creativity in the first half ultimately lost them the game. They will have a lot to prove in these remaining four games of the season. Other defenses may not find success running the same nickel look as the Buccaneers, but this is why the Bucs are the defending champions, they have the guys that can stop a top-five offense in the league.

How the Chiefs’ defense went from Legion of Whom? to Legion of Boom! overnight

The Chiefs went from having one of the NFL’s worst defenses to one of the NFL’s best literally overnight. How on earth did this happen?

Before 2021, the last team to hold its opponents to less than 10 points per game in four of five games was the 2014 Seahawks, in their third of four years leading the NFL in scoring defense — something no other team has done in the Super Bowl era.

Last Sunday, after holding the Raiders in a vise in a 48-9 beatdown, the 2021 Chiefs became the first team to accomplish that four-in-five stretch since the Legion of Boom pulled it off. Steve Spagnuolo’s defense held the Packers to seven points in Week 9, the Raiders to 14 points in Week 10, the Cowboys to nine points in Week 11, the Broncos to nine points in Week 13, and the Raiders to nine points in Week 14. Outside of the Broncos, that’s a bunch of generally high-powered offenses that turn very normal when they meet this defense.

Interestingly enough, the Chiefs’ defense bottomed out in the second half of the 2020 season, dropping from 14th to 29th in Defensive DVOA, and the uptick wasn’t nearly as significant in 2019, the team’s Super Bowl-winning season, when the defense moved from 16th to 11th. This season? The Chiefs ranked 28th in Defensive DVOA in Weeks 1-9, and only the Patriots have a better Defensive DVOA since Week 10. They’re third in Defensive DVOA behind the Patriots and Cowboys since Week 6, so this isn’t an in-season blip that can be ignored.

This is a new level of greatness for a defense that has been able to take risks because the Chiefs’ offense was so explosive. Which makes this turnaround even more impressive, because for the most part, the Chiefs’ offense has been anything but. That offense has seen a nice uptick from 11th to fourth in the second half of the 2021 season, but the second half of the season also includes a two-game stretch against the Cowboys and Broncos in which Patrick Mahomes failed to throw a touchdown pass. If the second half of the season didn’t also include a two-game roll against the Raiders in which Mahomes threw seven touchdown passes and no interceptions, it’s hard to say where the 9-4 Chiefs would be.

Where the 9-4 Chiefs are right now is at the top of the AFC West, one game ahead of the Chargers, who they face this Thursday night. The Chargers beat the Chiefs, 30-24, in Week 3, but Justin Herbert and friends will face an entirely different threat this time around. That defense is the key to the team’s six-game winning streak after a 3-4 start, and it’s worth investigating what changed, and why this is no flash in the pan.

The Kansas City Chiefs are now led by their defense, as if 2021 wasn’t already weird enough.

How the heck did this happen?

4-Down Territory: Tackling the NFL’s most pressing topics

In 4-Down Territory, Doug Farrar and Luke Easterling tackle the NFL’s most pressing topics on a weekly basis.

Every week, in “4-Down Territory,” Touchdown Wire’s Doug Farrar and Luke Easterling of Bucs Wire and Draft Wire discuss the NFL’s most pressing topics. On this week’s video, Doug and Luke talk about (and occasionally disagree about) the following:

The list of reasons for the Jaguars to move on from Urban Meyer seems to grow every week. Last week, there was the report from Tom Pelissero of the NFL Network in which it was revealed that Meyer calls his coaches “losers.” that he lied about the reasons for benching running back James Robinson (probably the team’s best player), and players are apparently close to open revolt. Why is it that college coaches struggle so consistently with the rigors of the NFL?
Alabama quarterback Bryce Young won the Heisman Trophy last Saturday, and there’s no doubt he’s had a great season. But should he have taken the trophy home, or was this the year it should have gone to a more deserving defensive player?
Packers cornerback Rasul Douglas is on his sixth NFL team, and he’s never been successful before Green Bay signed him off the Cardinals’ practice squad in October. Douglas recently said that he didn’t learn to watch tape the right way until last season, which is a pretty remarkable thing to admit – and a rather damning indictment of his former coaches. Now, Douglas has pick-sixes in two straight games, the first Packers player since Herb Adderley in 1965 to achieve that. Which other players around the NFL deserve a better opportunity in a new home?
The Chiefs started the season 3-4 with what may have been the NFL’s worst defense. Since then, they’ve rolled up six straight wins, they haven’t allowed more than 17 points in a game, they’ve allowed less than 10 points in four of their last five games, and they absolutely demolished the Raiders, 48-9, last Sunday. How does a team go from having the NFL’s worst defense to perhaps having the NFL’s best defense in such short order?

Watch this week’s episode of “4-Down Territory” right here!

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Film study: Should Eagles start Jalen Hurts or Gardner Minshew?

Touchdown Wire’s Laurie Fitzpatrick breaks down the tape to determine whether the Eagles should consider a change at QB.

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Gardner Minshew just got his first start since Week 15 of last season, and if you’ve been paying attention, you weren’t surprised that Minshew came out hot.

Minshew doesn’t just have good starts — he has great starts.

As a rookie in the 2019 season opener with the Jacksonville Jaguars, Minshew replaced the injured Nick Foles and completed 22 out of 25 attempts while throwing for 275 yards and two touchdowns against the Kansas City Chiefs. In last season’s opener, Minshew helped the Jaguars get their only win of the season by throwing an almost-perfect game, going 19 for 20 for 173 yards and three touchdowns against the Indianapolis Colts. Over the course of Minshew’s career, he has a 94.4 passer rating, 39 touchdown passes and 11 interceptions.

If there was ever a perfect time for Minshew to start, this past Sunday’s game against the New York Jets was it. The Jets rank dead last in the NFL in total yards allowed (4,762), yards allowed per game (396.8), points allowed (367) and points allowed per game (30.6).

The game plan was simple: Run the ball often and throw high-percentage passes. The running game was a big reason why the Eagles were able to grind out a 33-18 victory over the Jets. Miles Sanders had a season-high 24 carries for 120 yards, and rookie Kenneth Gainwell added a season-high 54 yards and one touchdown.

Minshew started the game with back-to-back touchdown drives and 11 consecutive completions. He finished 20-of-25 passing for 242 yards and two touchdowns without an interception, leaving some fans infatuated with the idea of Minshew replacing Jalen Hurts as the starter.

This is not new. Being from the Philadelphia area myself, I’ve watched fans become smitten with Koy Detmer, Jeff Garcia, Kevin Kolb, and, of course, Foles, who guided the Eagles to victory in Super Bowl LII.

But there is a reason why the Eagles didn’t reveal their starting quarterback until kickoff. They almost certainly didn’t want the Jets to be able to prepare specifically for Minshew. Not to diminish Minshew’s performance — he got the win, and that is what you pay a backup to do. But make no mistake, Hurts’ diverse skill set gives opposing defenses much bigger headaches.

The Eagles’ offensive game plan against the Jets was relatively simple, and most of the passes thrown by Minshew (aside from busted coverages downfield) were kept short. He threw 16 passes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage and only took three shots deep downfield.

To be clear, Minshew made some impressive audibles, went through his reads and exploited mismatches. On a third-an-10 in the third quarter, Minshew had one of his best throws of the day.

As soon as the ball was snapped, Minshew went through two reads, and even though the slant was open across the middle, he kept his eyes downfield to ensure he could convert the third down with a second-level pass. He then squared his shoulders while rolling out and hit Quez Watkins with a beautiful throw right to the chest in stride for 28 yards.

That said, Hurts is fully capable of making the same play.

In the clip below from Week 10 against the Denver Broncos, tight end Dallas Goedert ran a route similar to the one Watkins ran in the previous clip against man coverage. Hurts then did a fantastic job rolling out of the pocket and hitting his receiver in stride at the second level.

One of the biggest differences between Hurts and Minshew is the deep ball. When we look at Minshew’s deep throws in the Jets game, he wasn’t able to keep the same velocity on the ball.

On a touchdown pass to Goedert on Sunday, Minshew did a great job waiting for the play to develop. But when we look at the depth of the pass, we see that the receiver had to come back to the ball slightly in the clip below.

In the clip below from Week 11 against the Saints, Goedert ran the same type of rub route, and Hurts made a great throw.

When we contrast the two throws, the difference in velocity is what stands out most.

In the clip below, Minshew sidesteps into the path of a defender. This forces him to lean back as he throws, taking away some of his power due to suboptimal mechanics.

Now check out a similar situation and throw by Hurts.

In the second half against the Jets, Minshew started to check down frequently instead of looking toward the second level.

We aren’t taking anything away from Minshew on the completion here. This was great placement, and his accuracy is undeniable. Minshew has only 11 interceptions in his career for a reason. He doesn’t take risks to move the ball farther downfield. Instead, he often settles for the shorter pass.

By contrast, let’s look at a clip below of Hurts from Week 4 against the Chiefs, when wideout DeVonta Smith runs the same corner route. Hurts gets the ball there even though Goedert is open underneath.

Although Goedert enjoyed his best game of the season against the Jets with six receptions for 105 yards and two touchdowns, Minshew left some missed opportunities on the field. When the Jets defense started covering the underneath routes, it left moments of separation at the second level — but Minshew didn’t see them.

Whether Hurts is the long-term answer for the Eagles is a debate for another day, but he gives the team a better chance to win than Minshew.

Hurts ranks second among NFL quarterbacks with 695 rushing yards this season, behind only Lamar Jackson. Minshew provides a change of pace, but so would just about any other quarterback.

When defenses start scheming for Minshew, the Eagles will be left with a one-dimensional offense.

With Hurts, you have a playmaker.

Bill Belichick’s Monday night game plan further proves, reveals his rare genius

The Patriots’ run-heavy approach against the Bills wasn’t just a one-game gimmick — it was another illustration of Bill Belichick’s situational genius.

In 1950, the NFL welcomed three teams — the Baltimore Colts, San Francisco 49ers, and Cleveland Browns from the All America Football Conference — to its environs. The Browns, led by Paul Brown, had been the AAFC’s dominant franchise, winning all four league championships, so the NFL decided to pit Brown’s team against the Philadelphia Eagles, the league’s two-time defending NFL champs.

It was supposed to be an upbraiding for the new kids, but it was the exact opposite. Brown directed Otto Graham, his Hall of Fame quarterback, to exploit holes in the middle of Philly’s defense, and Graham put up a stat line that wouldn’t be out of place for a quarterback in 2021 — 21 completions in 38 attempts for 346 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions. The Browns won their NFL opener, 35-10.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6xOgmjbfF4s&t=120s

Eagles head coach Earle “Greasy” Neale made some noise before the December 3 rematch about the Browns leaning more on finesse than power, comparing them to a basketball team. This was a major miscalculation on Neale’s part. In that 13-7 Browns victory, Paul Brown’s team ran the ball 41 times, gaining just 68 yards, but still winning on a 30-yard pick-six by Warren Lahr, and two field goals by Hall-of-Famer Lou “The Toe” Groza.

The Browns did not technically throw a single pass, though two attempts were called back due to penalties. Brown told his players that they were specifically not to throw a pass as long as the game was tied, or the Browns had the lead. A rainy day and a muddy field advanced the wisdom of Brown’s strategy, but one gets the sense that Brown was going there no matter what the weather was.

In your face, Greasy.

The Browns won the 1950 NFL championship, 30-28, against the legendary “point-a-minute” Los Angeles Rams, and Brown’s approach was exactly what it should have been: Lean on your quarterback. Graham out-dueled Bob Waterfield, completing 22 of 33 passes for 298 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception.

Paul Brown was one of football’s greatest coaches and thinkers, and one of the primary reasons why is that he understood that not only is there more than one way to win a game, but that your ultimate success should be based on adjusting your approach for situation and opponent. There are not types or archetypes to which a franchise must adhere; there is only the next game, and the specific plan for winning that game.

Bill Belichick has always been a keen observer of Brown’s approach, and he’s always been a week-to-week adjuster, which is where Belichick’s game plan against the Bills on Monday night comes in.

In monsoon conditions, the Patriots threw the ball just three times — the fewest by any team since the 1974 Bills beat the Jets, 16-12, in a similar Buffalo weather disaster. Bills quarterback Joe Ferguson attempted two passes in that game, completing none, and having two interceptions called back by penalty. New England ran the ball against these Bills 46 times for 222 yards and a touchdown. They ran the ball when it didn’t work early on. They ran the ball when the schemed kicked in, and things got really dicey for Buffalo’s defense. They ran the ball no matter what, because that’s how Belichick saw a specific path to victory.

Could it have backfired? Sure. Did it? Nope. Here’s why.

The lone lion: Why Micah Parsons is the NFL’s best defensive player

Cowboys defender Micah Parsons has the Defensive Rookie of the Year award sewn up. It’s time to wonder if he’s the best defender overall.

You can wrap up any voting for the NFL’s 2021 Defensive Rookie of the Year, because Cowboys edge-demolisher and off-ball specialist Micah Parsons has that on lock. We’re past asking whether the Penn State alum is the league’s best defensive rookie. We are now asking whether Parsons has become the NFL’s best and most impactful defensive player, regardless of position or experience.

There is a legitimate case to be made, especially in the second half of the season. Since Week 9, Parsons leads the league in sacks (7.5), total pressures (26), and stops (20), and he’s done it at multiple positions. Per Pro Football Focus, Parsons has played 304 snaps this season on the defensive line, 360 in the box as an off-ball linebacker, 13 in the slot, six at outside cornerback (!), and one at free safety. There isn’t much Parsons can’t do, and what he can do, he’s doing at levels we have no right to expect from a rookie. There are very few players who can dominate at two levels of a defense at any given time, and Parsons has been doing it all season.

The NFL’s November Defensive Rookie of the Month came into his first December game, a Thursday-nighter against the Saints, with apparently more to prove. He’d come off a one-sack, 10-pressure, five-stop performance against the Raiders on Thanksgiving night that showed him as virtually unstoppable against Derek Carr and company, but his game against New Orleans may have been even more impressive. Parsons had another sack, five pressures, two stops, and no catches allowed on two targets.

“I feel like the more the season went on, you could see his speed start coming alive in the games,” end DeMarcus Lawrence recently said. “He’s a fast player, excellent instincts, he’s a go-getter. He’s the lone lion.”

Perhaps most interesting is how defensive coordinator Dan Quinn can deploy Parsons from week to week. Against the Raiders, Parsons lined up 73 times on the line, and four times in the box. Against the Saints, it was 12 snaps on the line, 50 in the box, and three in the slot. You don’t expect a 6-foot-3, 245-pound guy to make impact plays in the slot, either… but as we will see, Micah Parsons is no ordinary dude. For a rookie to excel in this many roles is… well, let’s just say it’s somewhere between exceedingly rare and completely unprecedented.

Touchdown Wire’s Week 13 NFL preview podcast with Doug Farrar and Mark Schofield

Touchdown Wire’s Doug Farrar and Mark Schofield get you ready for a very big NFL Week 13 with their weekly matchup podcast.

As the 2021 NFL season rolls merrily along into December, matchups turn interdivisional, contenders separate from pretenders, and (cliché alert) THE GAMES JUST MATTER MORE.

Cliché or not, they actually do! Touchdown Wire’s Doug Farrar and Mark Schofield have you covered as we prepare for a jam-packed Week 13 with their weekly podcast, which is also jam-packed with tape notes and advanced metrics. First, we get into Mark’s recent mock draft (which will be of interest to Lions, Jets, Giants, and Eagles fans, especially), and then, the matchups.

Among the topics discussed:

How can the Bills overcome their recent limitations on both sides of the ball to take on a Patriots team that seems to have everything covered at this point? Perhaps most importantly, how can the Bills do it without Tre’Davious White?
Why are the Saints so passive on defense of late, and why they’d better turn that tendency around against the Cowboys on Thursday night;
Why Matt Ryan has taken a serious backslide in the last three weeks, and where the openings are (and are not) to turn that around against the Buccaneers;
Why in the battle between Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow, one running back will probably decide the Chargers-Bengals game;
Why Miami’s defense is more multi-dimensional than you may think (and why Miami’s offense is almost entirely one dimension at this point);
Why Frank Reich was indeed right to avoid running the ball against the Buccaneers; and why he’ll reverse course against the Texans;
Does the Washington Football Team have its quarterback of the (near) future?
Why it’s time for Sean McVay to open up his playbook past the pages marked “Empty Formation,” and one Jaguars stat you will not believe;
Why the Steelers are in all kinds of trouble leading into their game with the Ravens; and
Why Patrick Mahomes could have a rough go against the Broncos’ match-heavy defense, even as the Chiefs’ defense has taken a major step forward.

Listen to the podcast on Omny Studio:

Or on Spotify:

And watch it on YouTube!

Film Study: Who’s responsible for the Chargers’ limited passing game?

Touchdown Wire’s Laurie Fitzpatrick breaks down the film to examine the ups-and-downs of Herbert and the Chargers passing offense.

The opening question in my latest film study was: Has the NFL figured out what Chargers quarterback and defending Offensive Rookie of the Year Justin Herbert can do, and are they countering him perfectly to limit what the passing game can do, or are the laminations of the passing schemes the real issue?

As with most complicated questions, there’s a little bit of everything in the answer.

In Herbert’s second year, he leads the NFL in QBR rating, he’s second in passing yards, third in passes completed, fifth in passing touchdowns, and he has five total game-winning drives this season.

So, in reality, defensive coaches have done their best to slow him down, but Herbert is still preforming at a high level.

The inconsistences from week-to-week come from the Chargers as a whole. Their defense haven’t been able to stop teams from getting into the end zone. In Week 11, against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Herbert had to put up 41 points to win by only four. When we take a look at the offense, Herbert is relied on heavily to create plays outside the pocket while evading pressure.

Offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi’s game plan is changing week to week based on the defenses, but overall the common theme in order to stop the Chargers, is to force them to become a short, quick passing offense.

When we look at the big plays, according to Sports Info Solutions, on throws of 20 or more air yards, Herbert has 23 attempts against zone coverage, and only six attempts when his receivers are facing man coverage.

This stat really says a lot about the Chargers. When they see man coverage, they aren’t going deep. Defenses would rather sit back, play prevent and force the Charges to sustain long drives in order to win games. Some teams have done it well, others haven’t.

In week 8, against the Philadelphia Eagles, Keenan Allen is one-on-one against Daruis Slay who is in man coverage, with only one safety deep. That safety must make a choice on which cornerback to help. Allen runs such a great route, that even though the safety decides to help out Slay, Allen still gets over the top.

Keenan Allen is one of the best route-runners in the NFL. Mike Williams and Herbert in the beginning of the year were considered one of the best duos in the game. Defenses have decided that if they are going to run man coverage, run it with two-safeties high, and force Herbert to make throws underneath.

In the clip below, the Patriots are in Cover 2-Man on second-down, leaving the only guy with separation is the running-back.

The Chargers are at the top of the NFL when it comes to team drops. When a high-flying offense is forced to run short-quick plays against man coverage, the communication and rapport have to be fluid.

Despite the mishaps against man coverage, there is always a chance that Herbert can find one of his receivers in single coverage over the top, changing the game in an instant.

So in light of that possibility, what defenses are doing to prevent the big-plays, they are running zone coverage.

This is why the 20+ yard passing plays, are against zone. Right now, this is where Herbert is at his best. Running receiver concepts, throwing guys open.

Even when defenses has disguised their look, Herbert is still able to get the ball down field. In the clip below, the defense disguises a single safety, then at the snap, he falls back. Herbert notices this and makes a great throw to the open spot.

What the Patriots were able to do to stop Herbert was blitz on second down, drop into man coverage and force Herbert to hold onto the ball, or force throws.

When the Patriots defense blitz from one side, they are replacing that defender with a defensive lineman where typically that part of the field would be empty.

When forcing Herbert to hold onto the ball for a little longer and go through his reads, while bringing pressure; mistakes are bound to happen.

Then the Broncos took this method and perfected it.

They forced third-and-longs, then ran zone-match. Herbert was forced to go through his reads and instead of making the tougher throw to the middle of the field, he forced it because he saw one-on-one on the outside.

NFL defensive coordinators realize that the sophomore slump comes with pressure; so bringing extra guys on second-down with man coverage in the secondary, has forced Herbert to hold onto the ball a bit longer than he would like, resulting in hurries or forced throws. This is why we are seeing Herbert use his legs a bit more.

On third down, they are allowing the underneath throws or forcing Herbert thread the needle for any completions deeper down field. Against the Patriots the Chargers converted on 33% of their third-downs, versus the Vikings 42% and Broncos 50%.

With his defense giving up points early, Herbert is feeling the pressure to make big plays. He must remain patient and keep his eyes down field in order to win, it wont be the run game, or his defense.

4-Down Territory: Discussing the NFL’s most important topics

Each week on “4-Down Territory,” Doug Farrar and Luke Easterling discuss the NFL’s most important topics.

Each week on “4-Down Territory,” Touchdown Wire’s Doug Farrar, and Luke Easterling of Bucs Wire and Draft Wire, agree (and disagree) on the NFL’s most pressing topics.

This week’s points of discussion:

If the Giants are ready to move on from general manager Dave Gettleman, are they wise to give organizational control to Joe Judge, who has a 10-17 record in less than two full seasons?
Why has the NFL turned from a total passing league to a league in which running backs matter again, and why are hybrid threats like Deebo Samuel and Cordarrelle Patterson making defenses think too much?
Last week, Doug and Luke pointed to the Panthers and Eagles as teams with records under .500 that presented real threats down the stretch. After both teams got embarrassed last Sunday, are those teams still on the radar?
And which teams currently in playoff contention could start to fade as things get real in December?

You can watch the latest episode of “4-Down Territory” right here!

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