Category: The All-22

FILM STUDY: Ideal schemes for top cornerbacks in 2022 NFL draft

Touchdown Wire’s Laurie Fitzpatrick identifies the best defensive schemes for the top cornerbacks in the 2022 NFL draft.

A compelling storyline heading into the 2022 NFL draft is who will be the first cornerback off the board. Some analysts have been eyeing LSU’s Derek Stingley Jr. in the top spot ever since his freshman season in 2019. Others have elevated Cincinnati’s Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner to the head of the class following his performance at the NFL combine. Washington’s Trent McDuffie also is in the mix.

As the draft approaches, these three cornerbacks are being evaluated, compared and contrasted with each other. Draft guides and scouting reports sometimes provide too much information, making it difficult to come to a conclusion on the guy.

Teams will be considering how each prospect’s style of play fits with their defense. With that in mind, let’s examine Stingley, Gardner and McDuffie to identify how they fit in the three defensive schemes: zone, man and match coverage.

Alabama’s Jameson Williams would give post-Tyreek Hill Chiefs new life

Alabama receiver Jameson Williams might be the Chiefs’ best option to replace Tyreek Hill. Now, it’s all about that torn ACL.

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On Wednesday, the Kansas City Chiefs’ offense became very different — and a lot less explosive. The trade of Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins not only takes Patrick Mahomes’ most explosive receiver away; it also changes the entire geometry of Kansas City’s offense in that Hill has speed you can’t consistently cover — you have to create an entire defensive architecture just to rein it in as much as you possibly can.

It’s why Mahomes faced far more two-deep coverage in 2021 than any other NFL quarterback, and without Hill in the picture — compounding that unpleasant reality that there’s nobody else on the roster who can approximate what Hill does — every NFL defense that has had to try and solve this calculus test is now breathing easier.

Now, it’s up to head coach Andy Reid and general manager Brett Veach to create a new math. There’s no receiver in free agency who is capable of approximating Hill’s effect on a defense, which leaves the draft, and some interesting options. Ohio State’s Chris Olave reminds me of a souped-up Cooper Kupp with his deep speed and route awareness, and I think he’d be an ideal fit in Reid’s schemes. But the Chiefs would likely have to trade up to get Olave, and while they now have the 29th and 30th overall picks in the 2022 draft as part of the Hill trade (they already had the 30th pick), they might not want to constrict their options at that part of the first round.

There is an even better option, though it comes with a bit of risk.

Alabama receiver Jameson Williams, who absolutely housed the NCAA with 79 catches for 1,572 yards and 15 touchdowns in 2021, suffered a torn ACL in the College Football Championship against Georgia. Were it not for that injury, Williams would likely be WR1 on most boards because of his route-running and field awareness, sure, but the thing that elevates Williams on tape is the constant vertical/speed threat that stress every defense the Crimson Tide faced — even Georgia’s dominant squad.

More importantly, Williams has examples on tape of doing nearly everything Hill has done — at a very high level.

Why the Chiefs cannot replace the irreplaceable Tyreek Hill

The Chiefs just traded Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins for a boatload of draft picks. Here’s why Hill is irreplaceable in Kansas City’s offense.

Just when you thought the NFL’s new league year was about as weird as we could tolerate, a blockbuster bit of news came out of Kansas City. Per multiple reports, the Kansas City Chiefs and receiver Tyreek Hill have come to an impasse in contract negotiations, and the team has allowed Hill and agent Drew Rosenhaus to seek a trade.

From there, things escalated very, very quickly. The Miami Dolphins gave up quite a haul for Hill: a 2022 first-round pick (No. 29 overall), a 2022 second-round pick (No. 50) and fourth-round pick, and fourth- and sixth-round picks in the 2023 draft. In addition, the Dolphins have already agreed to terms with Hill on a new four-year, $120 million contract extension, with $72.2 million guaranteed.

You can imagine the Arrowhead faithful hyperventilating at the thought of Hill wearing another uniform, and there’s good reason for that. Hill was selected in the fifth round of the 2016 draft due to multiple off-field issues, but as an NFL player, he’s been about as valuable at his position as they come. Since his rookie season, Hill ranks eighth in the NFL in receptions (479), seventh in yards (6,630), and third in touchdowns.

There’s also this, which further explains Miami’s eagerness to get this done.

More than that, there’s the stuff that shows up on tape that reveals Hill’s value to the Chiefs beyond boilerplate stats. Last season, per Sports Info Solutions, Patrick Mahomes faced by fa the most dropbacks against two-deep coverage (389; Matthew Stafford was second with 311), and a primary reason is that if you present a single-high look to a receiver of Hill’s explosive tendencies all over the field, you are just begging for a house call. Hill irrevocably alters the geometry of his team’s passing game, and that’s a rare trait in any era. In this era, it’s more valuable than ever.

Hill thrived in the constraints constructed to at least limit the damage he can do to a defense, catching 56 passes on 78 targets against two-deep coverage for 720 yards, 454 air yards, 266 yards after the catch, and two touchdowns.

Last season, per Pro Football Focus, Hill caught 11 passes of 20 or more air yards on 28 targets for 398 yards and three touchdowns in an offense that became more and more reductive as head coach Andy Reid and his staff tried to get Patrick Mahomes’ more rogue tendencies under control. He is by far the Chiefs’ most prolific deep receiver — Mecole Hardman and Byron Pringle combined for 13 deep catches and one deep touchdown last season.

But it’s not just that — it’s what Hill does after the catch that makes him such a major problem. You can also see how defenses react to his pre-snap movement as another indicator of how much he’s feared around the league. Hill’s 2.006 intended air yards and 585 yards after the catch in 2021 tell both sides of the same story.

What is that story? Without Tyreek Hill, Kansas City’s offense will be fundamentally different — and inarguably inferior — in a big hurry. And the film illustrates that quite perfectly.

Strap in, kids — we’re about to go on the hayride that is Tyreek Hill All-22.

4-Down Territory: Browns sell their souls, biggest trade, winning and botching free agency

In this week’s episode of 4-Down Territory, Doug Farrar and Luke Easterling get into the NFL’s major trades and free-agent signings.

Week 1 of free agency is in the books, but in this new league year, it’s trades that have ruled the news cycle. Touchdown Wire’s Doug Farrar, and Luke Easterling of Draft Wire and Bucs Wire, are back with yet another episode of “4-Down Territory,” in which our intrepid analysts throw a wide net over everything that’s happening in the NFL.

This week, Luke and Doug discuss why the Deshaun Watson trade is an ugly thing no matter how you look at it, which major trade benefits one team and sets the other back, and the teams that have won and botched the free-agency process.

As always, you can watch the “4-Down Territory” video right here!

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NFL free agency, Week 2: Analyzing and grading all the signings

Free-agency is still in full bloom, and we’re analyzing and grading all the relevant NFL signings and re-signings.

The real story of the first week of free agency has generally not been free agency.

Its been the trades. Russell Wilson from Seattle to Denver, Davante Adams from Green Bay to Las Vegas, Matt Ryan from Atlanta to Indianapolis, and Deshaun Watson from Houston to Cleveland.

That said, there have been all kinds of signings and re-signings, from great to sneaky-good to terrible, and we analyzed and graded as many as possible in our Week 1 free-agency tracker.

2022 NFL free agency grades: Scoring the prominent signings (and re-signings)

But as there’s still all kinds of talent left on the open market — perhaps the trades delayed things this season — and with that in mind, it’s time to get rolling with analysis and grades of the signings and re-signings happening in Week 2 of the new league year.

Grading every move in the Jacksonville Jaguars’ massive free-agency haul

The Jacksonville Jaguars are spending in free agency at a record rate. Laurie Fitzpatrick has tape and grades on all the signings.

Every year, there is always a team that goes all-in when free agency opens up. Last year, it was the New England Patriots; and this year, it has been the Jacksonville Jaguars.

With one of the highest caps in the NFL and a new coaching staff in town, general manager Trent Baalke, and head coach Doug Pederson decided to splurge. Over these two days, the Jaguars have seven new players on their roster and spent $259.5 million, with $155.25 guaranteed per ESPN’s Michael DiRocco.

Some of the big contracts were a bit questionable but that is nothing new for the Jaguars when they actually decide to go all-in in free agency. They filled some necessary needs on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball.

Let’s go over each player and the grades weighing their contract and potential contribution.

2022 NFL free agency grades: Scoring the signings (and re-signings) so far

NFL free-agent grades? We’ve got them, and Doug Farrar and Mark Schofield will continue to analyze the key signings with stats and tape study.

Every year, during free agency and the draft, there’s always the divide between those who grade deals and picks just as they’re done, and those who insist that it’s a useless exercise until and unless you see a player perform in his new environs.

Quite often, the two groups first give grades, and then bash the entire idea. Who says you can’t have it both ways?

What we’re doing with these grades (besides the obvious desire for clicks; let’s just be upfront about that) is assessing player value and potential player fit as the deals happen. Not unlike how teams have to assess the fits of those players as they sign or re-sign them.

So, without further ado, here are the 2022 NFL free agency grades as performed by Doug Farrar and Mark Schofield. Check back often, as the list of grades will continue to expand as the deals continue to happen.

Talking draft, trades, and free agency with Brian Baldinger of the NFL Network

Touchdown Wire’s Doug Farrar chops up all the draft, trade, and free agency news with Brian Baldinger of the NFL Network

It’s always great to talk football with Brian Baldinger, the former NFL offensive lineman and current analyst whose brand can be found at (deep breath) NFL Films, the NFL Network, Compass Media, Audacy, Sky Sports, Baldy’s Breakdowns on Twitter, and Coach Tube.

This time around, we started with Baldy’s courses on Coach Tube, and why they’re a treasure trove for football fans who want to know more about the game. Then, we went deep on several subjects around the draft and free agency.

  • Can Jordan Davis become the next Vita Vea?
  • What does the run on established NFL quarterbacks tell us about how NFL personnel people feel about the 2022 class of quarterback prospects?
  • How important is the safety position in today’s NFL, and how could that make Kyle Hamilton the most important player in the draft?
  • How does this year’s offensive line prospects measure up?
  • How much did the Seahawks get fleeced in the Russell Wilson trade, and how will Wilson perform in Nathaniel Hackett’s Broncos offense?

Great stuff as always from Baldy, and you can watch the entire video conversation right here.

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Mitch Trubisky’s redemption destinations

Touchdown Wire’s Laurie Fitzpatrick goes to the film to find the best fit for Mitch Trubisky.

After four years in Chicago under Matt Nagy, the Bears organization decided to not waste any more time in developing the quarterback they traded up to select second overall in the 2017 draft. Mitch Trubisky showed a decline in his accuracy and confidence in the pocket as he approached his fourth year in the NFL.

It’s easy to see that Trubisky does not have the tools to be an elite quarterback. The Bears often won in spite of him, but that said his career record is 29-21, and that includes two playoff appearances. With the Bears, he had a 64% completion percentage, and 10,652 passing yards with 64 touchdowns. So, the fact is, he’s actually done better for the Bears offense than any other quarterback they have put under center since Jay Cutler.

Trubisky has some unique skillsets at the next level that are not at all what we saw from him coming out of the draft. Trubisky won’t produce explosive plays down field, but he is solid when passing short distances. According to PFF, in 2018, his passer rating was 108.9, and in 2020, it jumped to 113.8 when throwing between 0-9 yards.

Over the last few years, we also found out that Trubisky runs a decent run-pass option and bootleg offense because of his run threat. After Nick Foles took his starting position in 2020, he quickly got it back after the Bears rushing attack severely declined. Foles was no threat in an RPO offense, and Trubisky at least kept the offense multi-dimensional.

Unfortunately, the accuracy and decision making forced the Bears to move on from Trubisky. After leaving Chicago, he was looking to reset his career and the Buffalo Bills was a great place to start. Josh Allen was pivotal for Trubisky’s growth as he was able to watch a quarterback who went through similar struggles. Sean McDermott and Brian Daboll were able to develop him into the player he is now.

That brings us to the first possible destination for Trubisky, who is now touted as an attractive free-agent option. This could say more about the 2022 quarterback class, both in free agency and the draft, than it does about Trubisky’s ultimate potential.

What do the Seahawks think they’re getting in Drew Lock?

The Seahawks got Broncos quarterback Drew Lock in the Russell Wilson trade. Based on the tape, Lock is no Wilson replacement. Why did this happen?

When it comes to the Seattle Seahawks in their post-Russell Wilson universe, it’s all about what Pete Carroll and John Schneider get out of the draft picks and players they have from the trade. The Denver Broncos gave up two first-round picks (2022 and 2023), two second-round picks (2022 and 2023), a 2022 fifth-round pick, and defensive lineman Shelby Harris, tight end Noah Fant, and quarterback Drew Lock for Wilson and a 2022 fourth-round pick.

On its face, and considering how poorly the Seahawks have drafted over the last half-decade (avert your eyes), this trade would seem to favor the Broncos to a massive degree. If Denver believed it was just a quarterback away from a Super Bowl possibility (and that may be so), then acquiring Wilson allows the Broncos to possibly do what the Tampa Bay Buccaneers did two seasons ago, and the Los Angeles Rams did last season — win the Super Bowl with a better-than-average roster, and the new star quarterback as the final piece. It’s not fool-proof, but you can understand why the Broncos went all-in here.

For the Seahawks, the Wilson (and the release of linebacker Bobby Wagner) means that it’s all about the rebuild. Whether Carroll and Schneider should be handed this rebuild, since they created the need for it in the first place? That’s a relevant debate, and it starts with Lock’s place in this trade.

Should Pete Carroll and John Schneider be trusted with the rebuild they created?

The Broncos selected Lock with the 42nd overall pick in the 2019 draft. That franchise was in the middle of a comical series of failures at the quarterback position after Peyton Manning’s retirement — the primary reason the Broncos haven’t made the playoffs since Manning’s retirement. Over three seasons, Lock completed 59.3% of his passes for 4,740 yards, 25 touchdowns, 20 interceptions, a career passer rating of 79.3, and a career ANY/A of 5.57. In 2020, his one full season as an NFL starter, Lock threw 16 touchdown passes, and led the league with 15 interceptions. This was one reason Denver brought Teddy Bridgewater in via trade with the Carolina Panthers before the 2021 season, and Lock’s role was subsequently reduced.

The Broncos moved on from head coach Vic Fangio after the 2021 season, replacing him with Nathaniel Hackett, and Hackett’s new staff. That new staff’s evaluation of Lock didn’t take long.

“The quarterback position is the leader of this organization in a sense,” new Broncos offensive coordinator Justin Outten, who was a coaching intern with the Atlanta Falcons in 2016, and an offensive assistant in 2017 and 2018, said in late February of the ideal quarterback room when Denver’s new coaching hired were announced — starting with head coach Nathaniel Hackett.

“They’re the guy that you have to lean on. It doesn’t matter if you’re on offense or defense or special teams. As far as the quarterback room itself, it’s got to be a supportive group. You’re working together. Being with [Falcons QB] Matt Ryan in Atlanta and having [Falcons QB] Matt Schaub as his counterpart, they would test each other every single day. Now, Matt Schaub knew that was his responsibility to make sure Matt Ryan was right each and every day of practice. It was just a collaborative situation, no different than the coaching style right now.

“Getting into the quarterback room with [Packers QB] Aaron [Rodgers] and his counterparts in there [Outten was also Green Bay’s tight ends coach from 2019-2021]. They were keeping each accountable, making sure things were light during the middle of season and keeping each other fresh. It was also a collaborative situation where they would shoot ideas off each other. I think that’s really important. It’s not just, this guy’s getting more reps than I am, so I’m just going to pout and do this. It should be: how can we make each other better? Having competitions within practice. They’ll take five minutes and throw a ball in a net 50 yards away. Keeping it competitive and having one up on each other, that’s the fun part of being in any room. It’s the competitive nature, while still being able to work together for the common good of the team, which is exciting.

“As far as [QB] Drew [Lock], he’s got a powerful arm. He’s done a really good job as far as using his legs and being an athlete. As far as that, I want to see how he fits in the system a little bit more once he gets the playbook under him, and then we’ll go from there.”

Clearly, the new Broncos staff did its due diligence on Lock and deemed him entirely fungible when the Wilson trade swung through. And based on Lock’s tape, that’s a reasonable conclusion. We have not yet heard the Seahawks’ reasoning for acquiring Lock. All we can do is to review his performance, and wonder.

So, what do the Seahawks have in Drew Lock, and why was he part of this trade in the first place? Based on the tape, Seattle got a plus backup at best.