Category: The All-22

Mitch Trubisky’s redemption destinations

Touchdown Wire’s Laurie Fitzpatrick goes to the film to find the best fit for Mitch Trubisky.

After four years in Chicago under Matt Nagy, the Bears organization decided to not waste any more time in developing the quarterback they traded up to select second overall in the 2017 draft. Mitch Trubisky showed a decline in his accuracy and confidence in the pocket as he approached his fourth year in the NFL.

It’s easy to see that Trubisky does not have the tools to be an elite quarterback. The Bears often won in spite of him, but that said his career record is 29-21, and that includes two playoff appearances. With the Bears, he had a 64% completion percentage, and 10,652 passing yards with 64 touchdowns. So, the fact is, he’s actually done better for the Bears offense than any other quarterback they have put under center since Jay Cutler.

Trubisky has some unique skillsets at the next level that are not at all what we saw from him coming out of the draft. Trubisky won’t produce explosive plays down field, but he is solid when passing short distances. According to PFF, in 2018, his passer rating was 108.9, and in 2020, it jumped to 113.8 when throwing between 0-9 yards.

Over the last few years, we also found out that Trubisky runs a decent run-pass option and bootleg offense because of his run threat. After Nick Foles took his starting position in 2020, he quickly got it back after the Bears rushing attack severely declined. Foles was no threat in an RPO offense, and Trubisky at least kept the offense multi-dimensional.

Unfortunately, the accuracy and decision making forced the Bears to move on from Trubisky. After leaving Chicago, he was looking to reset his career and the Buffalo Bills was a great place to start. Josh Allen was pivotal for Trubisky’s growth as he was able to watch a quarterback who went through similar struggles. Sean McDermott and Brian Daboll were able to develop him into the player he is now.

That brings us to the first possible destination for Trubisky, who is now touted as an attractive free-agent option. This could say more about the 2022 quarterback class, both in free agency and the draft, than it does about Trubisky’s ultimate potential.

What do the Seahawks think they’re getting in Drew Lock?

The Seahawks got Broncos quarterback Drew Lock in the Russell Wilson trade. Based on the tape, Lock is no Wilson replacement. Why did this happen?

When it comes to the Seattle Seahawks in their post-Russell Wilson universe, it’s all about what Pete Carroll and John Schneider get out of the draft picks and players they have from the trade. The Denver Broncos gave up two first-round picks (2022 and 2023), two second-round picks (2022 and 2023), a 2022 fifth-round pick, and defensive lineman Shelby Harris, tight end Noah Fant, and quarterback Drew Lock for Wilson and a 2022 fourth-round pick.

On its face, and considering how poorly the Seahawks have drafted over the last half-decade (avert your eyes), this trade would seem to favor the Broncos to a massive degree. If Denver believed it was just a quarterback away from a Super Bowl possibility (and that may be so), then acquiring Wilson allows the Broncos to possibly do what the Tampa Bay Buccaneers did two seasons ago, and the Los Angeles Rams did last season — win the Super Bowl with a better-than-average roster, and the new star quarterback as the final piece. It’s not fool-proof, but you can understand why the Broncos went all-in here.

For the Seahawks, the Wilson (and the release of linebacker Bobby Wagner) means that it’s all about the rebuild. Whether Carroll and Schneider should be handed this rebuild, since they created the need for it in the first place? That’s a relevant debate, and it starts with Lock’s place in this trade.

Should Pete Carroll and John Schneider be trusted with the rebuild they created?

The Broncos selected Lock with the 42nd overall pick in the 2019 draft. That franchise was in the middle of a comical series of failures at the quarterback position after Peyton Manning’s retirement — the primary reason the Broncos haven’t made the playoffs since Manning’s retirement. Over three seasons, Lock completed 59.3% of his passes for 4,740 yards, 25 touchdowns, 20 interceptions, a career passer rating of 79.3, and a career ANY/A of 5.57. In 2020, his one full season as an NFL starter, Lock threw 16 touchdown passes, and led the league with 15 interceptions. This was one reason Denver brought Teddy Bridgewater in via trade with the Carolina Panthers before the 2021 season, and Lock’s role was subsequently reduced.

The Broncos moved on from head coach Vic Fangio after the 2021 season, replacing him with Nathaniel Hackett, and Hackett’s new staff. That new staff’s evaluation of Lock didn’t take long.

“The quarterback position is the leader of this organization in a sense,” new Broncos offensive coordinator Justin Outten, who was a coaching intern with the Atlanta Falcons in 2016, and an offensive assistant in 2017 and 2018, said in late February of the ideal quarterback room when Denver’s new coaching hired were announced — starting with head coach Nathaniel Hackett.

“They’re the guy that you have to lean on. It doesn’t matter if you’re on offense or defense or special teams. As far as the quarterback room itself, it’s got to be a supportive group. You’re working together. Being with [Falcons QB] Matt Ryan in Atlanta and having [Falcons QB] Matt Schaub as his counterpart, they would test each other every single day. Now, Matt Schaub knew that was his responsibility to make sure Matt Ryan was right each and every day of practice. It was just a collaborative situation, no different than the coaching style right now.

“Getting into the quarterback room with [Packers QB] Aaron [Rodgers] and his counterparts in there [Outten was also Green Bay’s tight ends coach from 2019-2021]. They were keeping each accountable, making sure things were light during the middle of season and keeping each other fresh. It was also a collaborative situation where they would shoot ideas off each other. I think that’s really important. It’s not just, this guy’s getting more reps than I am, so I’m just going to pout and do this. It should be: how can we make each other better? Having competitions within practice. They’ll take five minutes and throw a ball in a net 50 yards away. Keeping it competitive and having one up on each other, that’s the fun part of being in any room. It’s the competitive nature, while still being able to work together for the common good of the team, which is exciting.

“As far as [QB] Drew [Lock], he’s got a powerful arm. He’s done a really good job as far as using his legs and being an athlete. As far as that, I want to see how he fits in the system a little bit more once he gets the playbook under him, and then we’ll go from there.”

Clearly, the new Broncos staff did its due diligence on Lock and deemed him entirely fungible when the Wilson trade swung through. And based on Lock’s tape, that’s a reasonable conclusion. We have not yet heard the Seahawks’ reasoning for acquiring Lock. All we can do is to review his performance, and wonder.

So, what do the Seahawks have in Drew Lock, and why was he part of this trade in the first place? Based on the tape, Seattle got a plus backup at best.

2022 scouting combine: Defensive backs to watch this weekend

Touchdown Wire’s Laurie Fitzpatrick profiles five defensive backs who can raise their names at the scouting combine this weekend.

On Sunday, March 6th, sixty-one defensive backs will take the field at Lucas Oil Stadium for on-field workouts at the scouting combine. This group makes up two positions on the defense: safety and cornerback

As far as the safety position goes, there is a clear drop-off after the number one guy, Kyle Hamilton from Notre Dame. So that being said, players will be fighting to get noticed when testing their speed, explosiveness, and fluidity. Whether that is in the speed turn drill, box drill, or just simply running the 40-yard dash.

When it comes to the cornerback position, each analyst seems to have different choices at numbers one, two and three. They say at the combine, a player can lose a million-dollar contract if they don’t test well, and so, that makes this one of the most anticipated positions of the entire weekend.

When it comes to testing change of speed, pad height, hip fluidity and balance, a defensive back must have it all. Some prospects will test better than others, and this Sunday we may find out who our top defensive backs are.

Let’s see which ones have a chance to raise their stock.

Receiver prospects who can raise their stock at the scouting combine

Touchdown Wire’s Laurie Fitzpatrick goes to the film to examine receivers who may raise their stock at the 2022 NFL scouting combine

As the 2022 NFL Draft approaches, we already have an idea of who the first-round wide receivers are, but there are some prospects who, even though they have great measurables, might not be as high on the boards as they’d like

What makes the difference between a guy with the same measurables better than another? Usually, it’s because of what they’ve shown on their tape. It’s true that the tape doesn’t lie, but it also doesn’t paint the full picture of a prospect.

Some receivers who play at the bigger schools could be overshadowed by other players, therefore limiting their reps. Other times. guys just aren’t in the right scheme or position. It’s impossible for a prospect to show what he could be capable of at the next level if those situations arise. One place where teams usually find hidden gem is at the scouting combine.

It happens every single year. Some guys who are twentieth on the board, show up to Indianapolis and raise their stock to top fifteen or even top ten.

Let’s check out a few receivers who have that opportunity.

The NFL’s 60 best free agents for the 2022 season

NFL free agency is right around the corner, and Touchdown Wire’s Mark Schofield and Doug Farrar have assembled their list of the best impending free agents.

NFL coaches and executives (well, most NFL coaches and executives) are going to converge on the city of Indianapolis for the scouting combine through the first week of March. But as much as the focus will be on interviewing and evaluating draft prospects there, the equivalent view will be on those current NFL players who will hit the open market at 4:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday, March 16 when the new league year begins.

Teams are already able to apply franchise tenders to those impending free agents they don’t want to lose, and deals can be done in that context. The legal tampering period begins on Monday, March 14 at 12:00 p.m. ET, when teams can negotiate with players who will be free agents two days later. Players and teams can agree to deals before the March 16 deadline, but no deals can be made official until the new league year begins.

With all this in mind, Touchdown Wire’s Mark Schofield and Doug Farrar have assembled their list of the NFL’s top 60 impending free agents, with Mark covering offense, and Doug on defense. These are the best players who will be on the open market once the new league year begins, and can do the most to improve their next — or possibly current — teams.

(All advanced metrics courtesy of Football Outsiders, Pro Football Focus, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise indicated).

How the Rams set the Bengals up for failure on Super Bowl LVI’s most important drive

Touchdown Wire’s Laurie Fitzpatrick shows how the Rams used run looks to pass against the Bengals in Super Bowl LVI’s most important drive.

The Los Angeles Rams had three healthy running backs who were ready to set the pace in Super Bowl LVI. That did not happen. Cam Akers rushed for 21 yards on 13 carries, Darrell Henderson only carried the ball four times for seven yards, and Sony Michel picked up only 2 yards on two carries. In total, the backfield had 19 carries and only gained 30 yards.

With all this said, as the clock continued to tick, the Rams still refused to abandon the run. Many were asking why.

Across Twitter, analysts were asking why the Rams continued to run it up the middle, gaining few to no yards.

The Rams stuck with it because the tight formations forced the Bengals to stay within the hashemarks. Since the defense was getting behind the line of scrimmage, clogging the middle and dominating the run; the Rams had one drive at the end of the game to exploit the Bengals pursuit and they did.

Let’s check out each play in that drive to see how the Rams reached the red zone…

In the fourth quarter, in order to set up that last drive, the Rams kept their tight end lined up outside the offensive tackle as a blocker selling the run.

The Rams noticed that when they would run play-action off this look, the Bengals defense would drop into zone.

So, when the last drive started, the Rams knew they would continue to run the ball and then once they decided to pass, it was just a matter of finding who was open.

On the very next play after the run, from the same look, Kupp motions and then takes a jet sweep with only one guy on the outside to beat. (clip below)

 

Bengals cornerback Mike Hilton stayed in his zone as Kupp motions. Kupp knew he was getting picked up by no. 24 on the other side, so just as long as he followed his blocks, he would have a chance to beat his guy in open space.

The Rams kept the up-tempo and tight formation to keep the Bengals at the line of scrimmage. As they continued to call run plays condensing the defense, the Rams then spread the field wide.

Once the Rams knew that the Bengals would drop into zone keeping an eye on the flat, Stafford only had to find the gaps in the middle of the field and identify mismatches.

With the Rams’ up-tempo offense, the Bengals had no time to adjust.

On the next play, a linebacker was across from Kupp and even though Van Jefferson runs a perfect route in that open zone, Stafford goes to his number one receiver, Kupp, who is mismatched against a linebacker in the slot.

On the new set of downs, the Rams used the run to first condense the Bengals defense, then spread them wide (putting a guy in the flat), in order to exploit the middle of the field as shown above. They continued the plan for the entire drive.

On very next play after the run, using that same look, the slot runs a seam route, and the Rams get a running back into the flat.

As you can see, Stafford is still seeing the middle of the field wide open in between the Bengals zone. This sets up the throw of the game.

As Kupp is lined up on the outside, the Rams run a Hi-Lo concept, so if the corner creeps inside and takes away Kupp, the underneath would still be open.

Stafford does an amazing job to look off the safety in the middle of the field putting the ball right on the money giving the Rams a new set of downs.

After six straight throws by Stafford, the Rams come out in a spread look, and instead of throwing it, they go back to the ground game leading to their most effective run of day; giving them a new set of downs with less than two minutes left in the game.

We all know what happened next. Kupp took over with underneath routes to get inside the end zone.

In the end, the Rams offense had to switch up their entire game plan in the fourth quarter. They knew the Bengals were honoring the run, so they took those tight looks, disguised the ground game and took advantage of the Bengals’ zone defense. Once the Rams found the openings in the secondary, the Bengals simply didn’t have the time to adjust.

Kupp ended up getting the mismatches the Rams needed to get inside the red zone, take the lead, and become Super Bowl champions.

Why Matthew Stafford’s no-look pass to Cooper Kupp was a Hall of Fame play

Is Matthew Stafford a Hall-of-Famer after the Rams’ win in Super Bowl LVI? Hard to say, but one throw to Cooper Kupp was Canton-worthy.

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The debate is rolling thick and fast right now as to whether Matthew Stafford is a Hall-of-Famer after the Rams won Super Bowl LVI. It’s a discussion I’d rather table until Stafford does a few more things in his estimable career (or not), but I have no doubt that when his team needed him the most to do something incredible against the Bengals’ defense in the fourth quarter of that game, Stafford came through with a ridiculous throw that should be in Canton (in some form or fashion) right now.

There’s already a decent library of ungodly Super Bowl throws, but it’s hard to to any better than this. With 3:06 left in the game, and the Bengals up 20-16, the Rams had second-and-7 from the Cincinnati 46-yard line. Stafford needed Kupp on this play, and he made that clear before it happened.

“Nice job digging in on that cheese,” Stafford told Kupp after the drive ended in Los Angeles’ game-winning touchdown. “Might be the best no-looker we got all year.”

It’s hard to argue that point. Even Patrick Mahomes, the current master of the off-platform, no-look pass, was impressed.

The dots show the conflict Cincinnati’s defense was in on that side, with Kupp heading over intermediate coverage, and tight end Brycen Hopkins taking the sit route underneath.

The overhead view shows the Bengals in Cover-3, with safety Von Bell as the robber underneath. After the game, Kupp brought up the fact that the Rams’ frequent use of no-huddle in that last drive forced the Bengals to stay in zone coverage — then, it was up to Kupp to find the gaps in those zones.

“[Head coach] Sean [McVay] did a great job — we were in a hurry-up in that last drive to keep them from setting some rushes, but also to keep them in zone calls, where you can put some pressure on them, and get some calls they feel comfortable playing,” Kupp said. “Zone some stuff off, and allow Matthew and I to find soft spots in there.”

On that play, though, Kupp was as surprised as anybody.

From the end zone view, you can see the extemporaneous nature of the throw and catch far more clearly.

The view Mahomes reacted to shows just how nuts it really was. If Bell doesn’t fall for the banana in the tailpipe — if he stays up top to react — he’s got at least a deflection, if not a game-deciding interception. Stafford had to have stones the size of two mansions to even attempt that throw into such tight coverage. He’d already thrown two interceptions in the Super Bowl, and he led the league with 20 picks thrown in the regular and postseason combined. We were a few Von Bell steps away from an entirely different discussion regarding Stafford’s legacy. But Stafford’s ability to move defenders with his eyes and his specific location, and his faith in Kupp, won the day.

“Yeah, they were playing a tough coverage for the play, to be honest with you,” Stafford said from Disneyland after the fact, sitting next to Kupp and Aaron Donald. “They had a safety [Bell] inserting into the right spot, and I just tried to move him enough to give Coop a chance to get behind him — move him with my eyes and my body, and was able to get it done. Great job by Cooper, trusting me there. I’m going to put it in a good spot, and he went in there and caught it, and made a big play.”

As ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky (Stafford’s teammate in Detroit in 2015, and the Lions’ primary quarterback in 2008, the year before Stafford was drafted first overall) pointed out in his own breakdown of the play, Stafford did a brilliant job of putting Bell on a string, and leading Bell where he needed Bell to go.

There are players who are able to make the biggest and best plays in the most important situations of their professional lives. We always wondered if Matthew Stafford would become such a player. Now, there is no doubt. When the Rams needed him most, Stafford came through with the gutsiest, almost stupidest, and in the end, most impactful throw he’s made in his 13-year career.

Whether that gets Stafford himself into Canton is a separate discussion, but the throw was Canton-worthy from the second it was completed.

Rams’ three-pronged rushing attack could be the difference in Super Bowl LVI

Touchdown Wire’s Laurie Fitzpatrick breaks down the Rams’ rushing attack, featuring Sony Michel, Cam Akers, and Darrell Henderson.

The Los Angeles Rams will have a three-headed rushing attack for Super Bowl LVI. The matchup between the Rams’ backfield and the Bengals defensive front is interesting considering that the Bengals have allowed over 100 rushing yards in each playoff game so far this post season and the Rams backfield (post-season) only hit the 100+ yard mark one time, in the wild-card blowout over the Arizona Cardinals.

With Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson back from injury, we can expect them to be the one-two punch from the backfield with Sony Michel as a change of pace.

In the month of December, before getting injured, Henderson was a top ten running back, averaging 4.6 yards per carry. Michel has done a decent job filling in as the starting back totaling 121 this post-season, but as soon as Akers returned from his Achilles tended injury, he took on the primary role with his explosiveness from the backfield.

The Rams’ rushing attack may not be the reason they win Super Bowl LVI, but who they choose to use in certain situations will be critical. Akers will be the guy who can get to the edge. Henderson and Michel are guys who work very well between the tackles.

When we take a look at the Rams’ rushing attack, it’s primarily run from a single=back formation focused on successful play-action.

The jet-motion at pre-snap forces the linebackers to shift to one side. At the snap of the ball, a backside receiver will come across the line of scrimmage as a lead blocker for the running back.

Now, the ballcarrier has a few choices before hitting the line of scrimmage: follow his lead blocker, hit the cutback lane from the shift, or bounce it outside.

What makes Henderson so good when running this type of play is his choice at the mesh point, and then using his downhill speed to hit the hole with burst.

We just don’t see that same decision-making from Akers when running between the tackles.

Henderson is able to lure the defense to the line of scrimmage, and then put his foot in the ground and cut the play back to the opposite side.

Henderson keeps a defense on its toes.

Getting Akers involved will be critical for the Rams offense to remain multi-dimensional. We may even see the Rams use Akers early on to spread the field, and then give Henderson the ball up the middle.

Akers has had success with the same misdirection from a single-back look. His specialty is using his speed to bounce the play to the outside getting to the edge.

Using Akers to bounce it outside will be important for the Rams as they spread the defense sideline to sideline, opening middle of the field for play-action. Akers will be the guy to get the job done.

Once Akers gets a few touches, the run game can evolve from single-back into shotgun as the Rams start to run some tosses.

The Bengals might be the worst run defense the Rams have faced this post-season. Their linebackers tend to get sucked into the trenches and teams are able to bounce the play to the outside with success.

Against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game, we saw the Bengals let this happen late in the game. If the Rams use those same looks, Akers should have a day.

Consider also the Bengals’ preference for dropping as many as eight defenders into coverage. Running effectively against those light boxes is the best way to bend Cincinnati’s defense into more conventional — and exploitable — coverage schemes.

All three running backs have had success in the Rams’ offense, and they each have their own specialties. Akers can hit the edge quicker than Michel and Henderson. Henderson preforms better between the tackles than both Michel and Akers. Michel can efficiently get the job done both inside and outside, then also has experience with a gap-style run scheme.

With all the talk about Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham Jr. this week, it could be the Rams’ ground game, and not its aerial attack, that makes the difference in Super Bowl LVI.

How the Rams can beat the Bengals in Super Bowl LVI

If the Los Angeles Rams are to beat the Cincinnati Bengals in Super Bowl LVI, they’ll have to do these three things.

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The Rams hired Sean McVay to be their head coach in 2017, and that’s worked out pretty well so far. McVay has a regular-season record of 55-26, and anytime you’re riding with a .679 winning percentage, that’s more than acceptable.

Now, McVay has the opportunity to do the one thing that separates good coaches from great — win a Super Bowl. This is McVay’s second chance in four seasons; his Rams fell short to Bill Belichick’s Patriots in Super Boal LIII, and McVay has admitted since that he was overwhelmed by the moment and the opponent.

“I think it was a blessing to be in that game,” he said this week, reflecting on what has changed. “Certainly, you don’t forget about it. You want to be able to do better. But I don’t think you press when you do get another opportunity to be in this moment and this stage again. I think you look at it as a blessing, you take some of those learning lessons, you apply them, and let’s go cut it loose and play to the best of our ability, and I’ll coach to the best of my ability with our coaches, as well.”

Now, McVay is the veteran head coach in this game. He’s got Matthew Stafford instead of Jared Goff. He’s got Super Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham Jr. He’s got Aaron Donald, Destroyer of Worlds, and he’s got Jalen Ramsey. He’s also got the fact that Bengals head coach Zac Taylor was on McVay’s staff in 2017 and 2018 as the Rams’ assistant receivers coach and quarterbacks coach.

The moment is primed for Sean McVay to get that Lombardi Trophy. Here are three things the Rams will have to do for that to happen.

Touchdown Wire’s Super Bowl LVI matchup video with Doug Farrar and Mark Schofield

Super Bowl LVI is right around the corner, and Doug Farrar and Mark Schofield break it all down with tape notes and advanced metrics.

With Super Bowl LVI just around the corner, it’s time for Touchdown Wire’s Doug Farrar and Mark Schofield to do what it is that they do — go through the tape and advanced metrics as a forensic level, and come out with the key matchups, players who can swing the game in their team’s direction, and those Secret Superstars who could rise out of anonymity to excel in the biggest games of their lives.

You can watch the video, in which Doug and Mark do just that, right here.

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