2020 Schedule Swings: Rushing

Comparing schedule strength – 2020 vs. 2019

The fantasy football strength of schedule is a useful tool, comparing the games for each team against what those defenses allowed the previous season. But what is even more useful is to compare that against 2019.

Simply put – you know what a player did last year. Is he going to have an easier or tougher time? As always, only the extremes are worth noting given how teams and players change from year to year.

Below shows the point differential (Swing Pts) between their schedule strength last year, and what they will face this season. Also shown are the calculated schedule strength rankings from 2019 and what 2020 projects to be (1 is best, 32 is worst).

Best Swings

Leonard Fournette (JAC) – He enters the final year of his rookie contract with a lot to prove. Fournette has been a Top-10 fantasy running back in years when he was (mostly) healthy. He enjoys the biggest swing of any back, rushing from the No. 26 to the No. 4 schedule. That should help him to gain a bigger payday in 2021. Assuming he is healthy.

Austin Ekeler (LAC) – This could be misleading. Ekeler had a great 2019 season when he ended as the No. 4 fantasy back and the Chargers faced the No. 30 rushing schedule. They improve to No. 18 which is favorable, but Ekeler only ran 132 times for 557 yards and the Chargers ranked No. 18 in rush yards as a backfield. Ekeler caught 92 passes for 993 yards for the source of most of his fantasy points. The Chargers faced the No. 2 easiest passing schedule and now slip down to No. 22 for 2020. That’s more relevant for Ekeler than the rushing schedule impact.

Saquon Barkley (NYG) – Like you needed another reason to draft Barkley. He comes off a down year thanks to injury but going against the No. 28 rushing schedule was no help as well. He’s healthy again and faces a kinder slate of games for this season.

Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) – Elliott is another elite back that ended up as the No. 3 fantasy value despite facing the No. 25 rushing schedule. Going against the No. 6 rushing schedule should keep him in the Top-3.

D’Andre Swift/Kerryon Johnson (DET) – The Lions backfield has long fallen short of much fantasy value, and there’s extra uncertainty now with the promising but less prepared rookie challenging the one-time promising rookie who cannot stay healthy. There is a healthy shift towards a lighter rushing schedule, but only from facing one of the very worst last year to an average schedule for 2020.

Derrick Henry (TEN) – Henry signed the big post-rookie contract so hopefully he doesn’t succumb to “got mine” disease. He led the NFL with 1,540 rushing yards last year while facing the No. 22 rushing schedule and now is handed the No. 7 just to make things easier. And no back is more sensitive to a rushing strength of schedule than the guy who ran 386 times to only 28 receptions. That’s about 14 carries for each catch.

Worst Swings

Jonathan Taylor/Marlon Mack (IND) – The Colts backfield ranked Top-5 in rushing attempts (399) and rushing yards (1,832) last year going against the No. 2 best rushing schedule. That plummets to the No. 28 rushing schedule and once again, there is a less-prepared rookie vying for carries against last year’s primary back. Bet the rookie Taylor doesn’t match his 320 carries last year at Wisconsin. Or his 2,003 rushing yards.

Melvin Gordon (DEN) – The Broncos were about average with the run last year but they enjoyed the No. 5 rushing schedule as well. Gordon shows up from the Chargers to become the primary back over but he’ll face the No. 26 strength schedule in Denver. That’s oddly the exact same strength as he had last year in Los Angeles when he held out for games and then ran for only 3.8 yards per carry.

Devin Singletary (BUF) – While he enjoyed a 5.1-yard average as a rookie in Buffalo, Singletary drops from the No. 15 rushing schedule clean down to the No. 32. Plus the burly Zack Moss has been added to the backfield leaving the 5-7, 201 lb. Singletary to provide the finesse work that saw him with only 151 rushing attempts in 2019. He’ll add more as a receiver but his rushing totals are not likely to see an appreciable spike.

Josh Jacobs (LVR) – Yet another rookie that benefitted from one of the lightest rushing schedules last season, Jacob’s fine rookie campaign may be hard to just match playing in a new stadium against the No. 23 rushing schedule. He’s a capable back with a 4.8-yard average but the schedule won’t do him any favors this year.

David Johnson (HOU) – Sure, his lone good season was four years and a few choice injuries ago, but Johnson was traded to the Texans to become their primary back. It was a move that surprised everyone and he gets his second chance at a career going against the No. 22 rushing schedule. To his benefit, the offensive line in Houston has been much upgraded. To his detriment, he is the David Johnson that has flopped since 2016.

Alvin Kamara (NO) – This isn’t ideal. Kamara trades the No. 20 rushing schedule for the No. 31 but he played injured most of 2019 when he turned in his third straight 1,200-total-yard season with 81 receptions. His role as a receiver is plenty to keep him churning out the fantasy points.

2020 Schedule Swings: Passing

Comparing schedule strength – 2020 vs. 2019

Simply put – you know what a player did last year. Is he going to have an easier or tougher time? Only the extremes are worth noting given how teams and players change from year to year.

Below are the point differential (Swing Pts) between their schedule strength last year and what they will face this season. Also shown are the calculated schedule strength rankings for 2019 and what 2020 projects to be (1 is best, 32 is worst).

Best Swings

Baker Mayfield (CLE) – This is interesting. Mayfield turned in a very encouraging rookie season but then mostly flopped in 2019. He faced the No. 31 passing schedule, which was at least a contributor (along with receiver injuries). Mayfield owns the best turnaround of a schedule and goes from the second-worst passing schedule to just inside the Top-10.

Mitchell Trubisky/Nick Foles (CHI) – The Bears are tricky this year. Does Trubisky start all year or does Foles step in at any point? Notable is that while they own the second-best swing, they were already had the No. 5 passing schedule last year and ranked No. 25 in passing yards (3,573). So clearly, a favorable schedule wasn’t enough to spark even average production. Maybe it’s Trubisky, maybe it’s the coaching. Whatever the problem is, it hasn’t been the schedule.

Aaron Rodgers (GB) – The Packer’s future Hall-of-Famer was only the No. 12 fantasy quarterback. He ended with one of the worst seasons in his 15-year career. Facing the No. 27 passing schedule did not help, but the Packers under HC Matt LaFleur installed a run-heavy offense that reduced their passing production to only average levels. Rodgers gets a nice bump up to the No. 6 passing schedule strength, but ignoring wideouts in the NFL draft and yet grabbing a first-round quarterback doesn’t bode well for a turnaround in Green Bay.

Derek Carr (LVR) – Here’s a quarterback that ends up around No. 18 every year. Gruden, no Gruden – so far, it has not mattered. He has a positive swing to be sure, but that’s still just No. 30 to No. 21. Facing the Broncos, Chiefs and Chargers twice each year doesn’t help. Carr should be better with a lighter (relatively) schedule and even new receivers for 2020. But he’s still one of the last fantasy quarterbacks drafted for a good reason.

Dwayne Haskins (WAS) – While Haskins rises to the No. 5 schedule, nothing last year says that big things are a-brewing in Washington (at least not with a quarterback). The ~~Redskins~~ Washington Professional Football Team didn’t rank better than bottom-three in almost all passing categories when they faced the No. 22 passing schedule. Highly unlikely that Haskins merits a fantasy start in most if not all leagues.

Philip Rivers (IND) – While the Colts went with Jacoby Brissett last year after Andrew Luck refused to make that morning commute, they only passed for 3,314 yards. Despite owning the No. 11 passing schedule, no advantage was derived. Rivers shows up at a great time with the No. 2 passing schedule on tap and oddly enough enjoyed the same No. 2 with the Chargers in 2019. This is a bad year for moving around and learning new things, but facing the No. 2 passing schedule last year netted him the No. 13 rank among fantasy quarterbacks. With a less talented offensive line, as well.

Worst Swings

Tyrod Taylor (LAC) – He wasn’t there for the No. 2 passing schedule in 2019, but he will be under center against the No. 22 passing schedule this year. Not to mention he’ll be learning a new offense with new personnel, and oh yes, he’ll likely lose the starting job to Justin Herbert before the season is over.

Tom Brady (TB) – This isn’t as bad as it initially seems. While Brady missed out on going against the No. 1 easiest passing schedule last year for the Buccaneers, he still ends up with the No. 11 passing schedule and will play with the best set of receivers he’s had in many, many years if not ever.

Ryan Tannehill (TEN) – This is more concerning given that the Titans already ranked No. 31 in pass attempts (446) last year. Tannehill drops from the No. 7 down to the No. 29 passing schedule. And their rushing schedule improved (No. 22 to No.7) so they could end up with the No. 32 in pass attempts for 2020.

Matt Ryan (ATL) – Ryan has been a Top-6 fantasy quarterback for the last two years but the hat trick should be a challenge to complete. The Falcons fall from the No. 8 passing schedule down to the No. 28. In their favor, they return all the same players and coaches and that counts bigger this season.

Drew Brees (NO) – This shouldn’t be much of a factor given that they still face the No.13 passing schedule with one of the best quarterbacks of all time. The Saints rushing schedule falls to No. 31 this year, so Brees will have plenty of reasons to air the ball out early and often.

Gardner Minshew (JAC) – This is another instance of a great schedule shifting backward to just an average one. Minshew already has to install a new offensive scheme under OC Jay Gruden but gets his easier matchups all in the first half the season. He could fade late when you need him most.

Better than average: Tight Ends

The best TEs compared to each other.

“Better than average” is an annual measurement of how players did the previous season. Not just their total yardage or fantasy points. What this considers is which player posted the most fantasy points against a particular defense. Who had a Top-4 or a Top-8 performance? With 16 games for each defense, anyone that scored in the best eight against them for that position was “better than average.”

This considered a standard fantasy performance scoring with a reception point for running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends. The “BTA” score adds up the instances of whether a score was the highest, in the best four or eight allowed to the position by a defense. In that way, a No. 1 showing gets counted three times (as the No.1, in the Top-4 and the Top-8).

This is actually more accurate than considering total fantasy points. This indicates how well a player did versus all others that faced the same defense. Each defense only gives up one instance of a No. 1.

With so few players of any consequence, there are no big surprises here. Tight ends like Hunter Henry, Mike Gesicki, and Jared Cook didn’t have many great games, but they were solid in turning in “better than average” scores almost every week.

Here are just the No. 1 performances allowed by a defense (a total of 32). Interesting that Ertz led in this statistic while Travis Kelce was limited to just two instances of scoring the most tight-end points on a defense.

Better than average: Wide Receivers

The best WRs compared to each other.

DeVante Parker was a surprise, even to any Dolphins fan, when he suddenly caught fire after years of mediocrity but then again, defenses weren’t exactly freaking out when they faced Miami. To have multiples of any category is impressive considering there are at least 64 starting wideouts in the NFL in any non-bye week.

Davante Adams slid down in this metric and while Chris Godwin did well, consider that Mike Evans played injured and ended on injured reserve but led the NFL with three Top-1 performances. Michael Thomas turned in a ridiculous year with 13 games in the Top-8 allowed by that defense. For wide receivers, those Top-8 are the most telling given how many wideouts a defense faces in a season. DJ Chark, Robert Woods, and Allen Robinson are all relatively young players improving their worth to their teams.

Julio Jones and Amari Cooper fell in this measurement compared to their total points for the season.

Here are just the No. 1 performances allowed by a defense (a total of 32).

Better than average: Running Backs

The best RBs compared to each other.

Aaron Jones showed up well in this metric with ten games where he was in the Top-8 fantasy points allowed by that defense. Kenyan Drake also deserves notice with two of the Top-1 and five of the Top-8. He only played for the Cardinals for eight games when he accomplished that production. Even a bad year for Saquon Barkley still had him with high marks across the board, including four games as the No. 1 fantasy scorer allowed by that defense.

Here are just the No. 1 performances allowed by a defense (a total of 32).

Better than average: Quarterbacks

Which QBs were the best against a particular defense?

“Better than average” is an annual measurement of how players did the previous season. Not just their total yardage or fantasy points. What this considers what player posted the most fantasy points against the particular defense. Who had a Top-4 or a Top-8 performance? With 16 games by each defense, anyone that scored in the best eight for that position was “better than average.”

Patrick Mahomes was injured last year to explain his No. 5 placement. Baker Mayfield, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Jared Goff fared better in this metric than just total points. Josh Allen, Carson Wentz, and Kirk Cousins came off worse.

Here are just the No. 1 performances allowed by a defense (a total of 32).

The folly of drafting team defenses

The trouble with picking a team defense based on last year.

There has been a movement in fantasy football to drop team defenses from starting requirements, but the mass majority of leagues still require them. Defenses yield the sense that you own “an entire team” and that you are not just picking a collection of disparate and unrelated players for a statistical game of probability (umm… anyway).

The problem with team defenses is that they are far more challenging to predict. On offense, the best players are given the most chances to succeed. Defenses can only react to whatever the opposing offense does and they will intentionally try to steer clear of the strength of a defense. The best running back gets the most carries. The best cornerback may never see a pass his way.

There is a myriad of different scoring systems used with team defenses, but most just consider sacks, turnover recoveries, safeties, and touchdowns. That’s what the below rankings are based on. Other measurements are sometimes used – points allowed, yardage allowed, return yardage, etc.. But mostly – just sacks, turnovers, safeties and touchdowns.

Nothing has a bigger impact on a fantasy draft than what just happened the previous year. Here are the current Average Draft Positions for team defenses and where each ranked at the end of 2019. Green cells show a finish in the Top 6 as an advantage, No. 7 to No. 12 are white – worth starting but not as advantageous, and then the red is No. 13 and beyond – no advantage.

The Bears were #3 in 2018, so people expect them to return. The Bills also seem to have a better defense than their fantasy points usually support. But overall, the top six defenses of 2019 are very well represented in 2020 drafts and they were the only defenses that gave a fantasy team any advantage last year.

So, taking that early defense looks good and feels good, right? I know – I’ve done it plenty of times. And it rarely pays off, amigo. Here are the actual results from the last five years, sorted on the 2018 season so you can see how well those top defenses repeated last year.

Ouch.

Take a look through the last five years. That’s all true in any year of the NFL – defenses are just very hard to call correctly in fantasy football. They are a very complex group of players reacting to a different offense every week.

Take a defense. Take two if you want. But spending an extra early pick rarely pays off and watching the waiver wire closely for the first month of the season is a better way of determining which team defenses are stepping up this year, at least more accurately than expecting 2019 to repeat.

Consistency Rankings – Tight Ends

Fantasy Football consistency rankings

Below is each tight end that played at least eight games. The fantasy scoring used was 1 point per 10 yards rushed or received and with six-point touchdowns and one point per reception.

HOW OFTEN TE SCORED AT LEAST 10 FANTASY POINTS

Last season was better than usual with ten tight ends turning in at least 10 fantasy points per game – there were only five in 2018 and that is much closer to the standard. Travis Kelce and George Kittle topped the list the last two seasons and Zach Ertz ended as fifth-best in both. The difference in what a top tight end provides is even starker considering how many 15 point games that they delivered.

The same hold true every season – grab a top five or six tight end if you want any advantage at the position and realize that one or two of those picks won’t meet expectations. Kelce, Kittle, and Ertz rule this position each season and that should hold for at least a few more.

BEST IN CATEGORY

Consistency Rankings – Wide Receivers

Fantasy Football consistency rankings

Below is each wide receiver that played at least eight games. The fantasy scoring used was 1 point per 10 yards rushed or received and with six-point touchdowns and one point per reception.

HOW OFTEN WR SCORED AT LEAST 15 FANTASY POINTS

2019 was not a banner year for stud wideouts with only nine players managing to score at least 15 fantasy points (with reception points) in over half of their games. 2018 witnessed 17 exceed that mark and there were eight with at least two-thirds of their games over 15 points. Only two from last season and that should devalue the position even more in fantasy drafts that strongly reflect the previous season.

The overall pattern was very much like 2017 that only had three with more than 67% and just one with more than 70% (DeAndre Hopkins 87%). Last season it was Michael Thomas, then Davante Adams in 2018. Beyond that top wideout (that changes annually), you are doing well enough just getting a good game from your receivers half of the time.

BEST IN CATEGORY

Consistency Rankings – Running Backs

Fantasy Football consistency rankings

Below is each running back that played at least eight games. The fantasy scoring used was 1 point per 10 yards rushed or received and with six-point touchdowns and one point per reception.

HOW OFTEN RB SCORED AT LEAST 15 FANTASY POINTS

The decline in “good games” was fairly steep as it is in every season. There were notable surprises in Dalvin Cook, Aaron Jones, Austin Ekeler and Chris Carson. But that is not unusual – 2019 served up similar results for James Conner, Phillip Lindsay, Tarik Cohen and Sony Michel that were not replicated. But the known studs of Christian McCaffrey, Ezekiel Elliott, Saquon Barkley, Todd Gurley, and Alvin Kamara still turned in production that merited a higher draft pick. 2019 only had 23 backs that managed 15+ fantasy points in at least a third of their games. There were 27 such in 2018 but only 19 in 2017 so the position is faring slightly better.