Category: Projections

Detroit Lions training camp battles: Wide Receivers

A look at the Detroit Lions training camp battles at wide receiver from Lions Wire’s Russell Brown

Say what you want but the depth at wide receiver for the Detroit Lions is better than it’s been in a few seasons. While there might be some low expectations for some players in the group, the Lions have built something that they’ve been intending on building since the arrival of this regime.

That something is competition.

By drafting, trading and signing players such as Antoine Green, Denzel Mims and Marvin Jones Jr., the Lions should be able to find some consistent contributions from one, if not all three players this season.

For Antoine Green, he’s a seventh round pick from North Carolina in the 2023 NFL Draft. He’s a deep ball specialist that averaged 19 yards per catch for the Tar Heels while possessing sub-4.5 speed. In 2022, he had 798 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns. It wouldn’t be surprising if he was picked over some veteran receivers to make the 53-man roster.

As for Mims, he’s a former second round pick from the 2020 NFL Draft. While I wasn’t his biggest fan coming out of the draft, he does have sub-4.4 speed and could be a player that just needs a change of scenery. We’ve seen the Lions have success with players changing teams such as John Cominsky and Charles Harris. Mims does only have 42 receptions for 676 yards in his career so my expectations are low. But again, he adds depth and competition for training camp.

When you look at the rest of the roster, players such as Amon-Ra St. Brown, Marvin Jones Jr., and Kalif Raymond should be safe to make the roster. Jameson Williams will make the roster but won’t be available for the first six weeks of the season with his suspension on gambling.

Another veteran that the Lions have is Josh Reynolds. After posting 38 receptions for 479 yards and three touchdowns, he’s coming off his best season with Detroit. He should easily earn a spot on the roster as a 3rd or 4th receiver.

It’s possible that the Lions cut a player such as Denzel Mims for a player such as Maurice Alexander, Trinity Benson or Tom Kennedy. However, I don’t see that being the case. Between those three players, they’ve totaled 17 receptions for 305 receptions and 33 games played.

Regardless of what happens, I’d have low expectations for that final roster spot when it comes to loading the stat sheet on offense. Much of the Lions production at receiver should come from Amon-Ra St. Brown, who posted a career 106 receptions in 2022.

While the Lions did have five receivers last season, I could see them carrying six receivers this season. Here’s how I’d project the Lions wide receiver room for this season:

  • Amon-Ra St. Brown
  • Marvin Jones Jr.
  • Josh Reynolds
  • Kalif Raymond
  • Jameson Williams (Suspended — won’t be on the active 53-man roster)
  • Denzel Mims (Six week trial run to start the season. Could move on after activating Williams)
  • Antoine Green (Practice squad. Could keep him on the PS or activate based on performance of Mims)

The way I see it, the final roster spot at receiver will come down to Denzel Mims and Antoine Green. With how rocky Mims career has been so far, I’d expect the Lions to go in favor of Green.

However, they could put Green on the practice squad to start the season and they could give Mims a six-week trial while Jameson Williams is out of the lineup. If Mims doesn’t produce, they could move on from him while activating Williams and promoting Green to the 53-man roster.

Regardless of how it turns out, it’ll be interesting to see how training camp turns out for the Lions depth chart at wide receiver this summer.

Which Lions offensive players are locks to make the final 53-man roster?

Breaking down which Detroit Lions offensive players are locks to make the final 53-man roster

The Detroit Lions players arrive in Allen Park this week for training camp. Not every player’s purpose in training camp is the same, however.

Many players already have roster spots sewn up. Others are fighting to try and earn a spot on the Lions’ final 53-man roster.

Here are the Detroit offensive players who don’t have to worry about losing their jobs in the upcoming weeks of training camp and preseason.

Revamped TE room and poor production could make Jason Cabinda the odd man out

Detroit’s revamped TE room and his poor production could make Lions FB Jason Cabinda the odd man out

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Jason Cabinda is entering his fifth season as the Detroit Lions’ fullback, but the team’s tight end group could make his role obsolete.

Cabinda, a linebacker-turned-fullback, has referred to himself as a “Superback” capable of playing running back, tight end, and receiver. While his positional versatility should make him valuable, his usage on offense has been on the decline over the years.

Cabinda only appeared in eight games in 2022 due to injuries, and did not see much action on the field during that time. He had one carry for four yards and one reception for a gain of five. The key issue here that could cause him to lose his roster spot is his drops. He dropped two passes during the game against the Giants.

So who on the roster could replace him?

Detroit has several tight ends who could play the role that Cabinda does on offense, and likely do a better job of it. Given the nature of the position, the player would need to be an efficient blocker in the run and pass games while also being able to run routes and carry the ball.

That’s where depth players like James Mitchell and Derrick Deese can make their impact.

At Virginia Tech, Mitchell was used everywhere on the field, and took plenty of snaps in the backfield at the H-back position. He is a versatile tight end who can catch as well as he can block. He was also an efficient goal-line back, carrying the ball seven times for nine yards and five touchdowns.

Deese doesn’t have the rushing stats that Mitchell does, but he was used in a similar way at San Jose State and has taken reps in the fullback role during practices last summer. He is known primarily as a blocking tight end but has the hands to contribute as a receiver.

The main thing that Cabinda still has going for him is his ability and willingness to play special teams. His experience as a linebacker in college and the NFL is clear when he makes a tackle on kickoff and punt coverage, and his skills as a blocker have been crucial on kick and punt returns.

That being said, Mitchell and Deese have much more experience playing on offense and could save the team a roster spot if they decide to forego a true fullback. Instead, they could be active as the third or fourth tight end on game days and open up the playbook a little bit more.

 

Aidan Hutchinson: Projecting his 2nd season based on similar recent players

Aidan Hutchinson: Projecting the Lions EDGE’s 2nd season stats based on similar recent players

Aidan Hutchinson had himself an impressive rookie campaign for his hometown Detroit Lions. The No. 2 overall pick in the 2022 NFL draft burst onto the scene with 9.5 sacks, 52 tackles, three INTs, two fumble recoveries and nine TFLs. The performance earned Hutchinson the runner-up as the NFL’s Defensive Rookie of the Year and helped spearhead a Lions defense that got significantly better as the seasons progressed.

The trick for Hutchinson is to build on his strong rookie campaign. To get an idea of what to expect from Hutchinson in Year 2, I took a look back at some similar historical comps and how they performed in their sophomore NFL seasons.

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The players chosen here are all top-15 overall selections who weigh above 260 pounds and play the EDGE spot at least somewhat similar to Hutchinson — versatile alignment with power to speed as a preferred (but not exclusive) rush tactic.

Five breakout candidates for the Lions 2023 season

A look at five Detroit Lions who could have breakout seasons in 2023

As we enter the month of July, we’re inching closer to the Lions start of practices and pre-season action. Before we know it, we’ll be knee-deep in the regular season as our football teams push for the playoffs. For now, I want to look at five players that could break out for the Lions during the 2023 season!

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Sam LaPorta: Projecting the Lions TE rookie stats based on historical production

Sam LaPorta: Projecting the Lions TE rookie stats based on historical production and offensive role

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When the Detroit Lions drafted Iowa tight end Sam LaPorta with the No. 34 overall pick in the 2023 NFL draft, they were counting on finding a long-term fixture at the position. LaPorta will also be relied upon to bolster the receiving options in coordinator Ben Johnson’s offense right away, too.

But how much can the Lions reasonably expect to get out of LaPorta as a rookie receiver?

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To project LaPorta’s production in his rookie season, I took a look back at all the tight ends selected in the first two rounds of the draft dating back to 2016. There have been 15 of them, including Detroit’s selection of T.J. Hockenson at No. 8 overall back in 2019.

Here is what each of those 15 tight ends produced as rookies:

Drafted Receptions Yards TDs
Tre McBride 55th in 2022 29 265 1
Kyle Pitts 4th in 2021 68 1,026 1
Pat Freiermuth 55th in 2021 60 497 7
Cole Kmet 43rd in 2020 28 243 2
T.J. Hockenson 8th in 2019 32 367 2
Noah Fant 20th in 2019 40 562 3
Hayden Hurst 25th in 2018 13 163 1
Mike Gesicki 42nd in 2018 22 202 0
Dallas Goedert 49th in 2018 33 334 4
O.J. Howard 19th in 2017 26 432 6
Evan Engram 23rd in 2017 64 722 6
David Njoku 29th in 2017 32 386 4
Gerald Everett 44th in 2017 16 244 2
Adam Shaheen 45th in 2017 12 127 3
Hunter Henry 35th in 2016 36 478 8

Projecting LaPorta

The average for the 15 equates to 34 catches for 403 yards and three touchdowns.

In 2022, the Lions tight ends caught 66 total passes for 784 yards and 12 touchdowns. Before he was traded to Minnesota, Hockenson caught 26 passes for 395 yards and three TDs in seven games for Detroit.

Based on the role in the Lions offense, the historical production data and how I saw LaPorta being utilized in the offseason practices and my pre-draft evaluation of his skills, my projection for his rookie stats:

44 receptions, 518 yards, five TDs

Notes

Current Lions QB Jared Goff was the man throwing passes to Gerald Everett with the Rams in 2017, a year where Goff earned his first Pro Bowl berth.

Pitts topping the production list is not a surprise. He was a hybrid WR/TE at Florida and continues to play that role for the Falcons. Pitts is the only rookie TE on this list to make the Pro Bowl in his first season.

Hockenson and Hurst each only played in 12 games as rookies.

NFC North roundtable: Which team is the favorite to win the division?

The Wire editors from the NFC North teams predict which team will win the division in 2023

The Chicago Bears are building around Justin Fields, the Detroit Lions are entering the season as betting favorites to win the division, the Green Bay Packers are transitioning from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love and the Minnesota Vikings are attempting to repeat as division champs for the first time since 2008-09.

There’s a lot going on in the NFC North this season.

In the latest of a series of posts previewing the division ahead of the 2023 season, Alyssa Barbieri of Bears Wire, Jeff Risdon of Lions Wire, Zach Kruse of Packers Wire and Tyler Forness of Vikings Wire answered the question: Who is the favorite to win the division in 2023?

Projecting the Lions 53-man roster after Detroit’s minicamp

Projecting the Detroit Lions 53-man roster for 2023 after minicamp and OTAs

The offseason activities and minicamp have come to an end for the Detroit Lions. After the open practice sessions, it feels like we have a better grasp on the Lions roster and how it might shake out when the final cuts down from 90 to 53 may look.

Here’s my early stab at what the initial 53-man roster will look like after the final preseason game and the end of training camp.

Projecting Jahmyr Gibbs rookie stats using two historical comps

Gibbs profile calls to mind two other first-round RBs who had impactful rookie seasons

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Rookie stat projections are always a dicey proposition. The transition from college to the pros is different for every player, what with the divergent schemes, new roles, upgrades in competition and distance around the learning curve.

Even so, it’s fair game to try and project how a rookie will perform in a role. For Detroit running back Jahmyr Gibbs, injecting him into the Lions offense is more than just replacing what D’Andre Swift did in the similar role in 2022.

As a draft evaluator, I came up with two comparable players for Gibbs. One comes from a long time ago: Eric Metcalf, the No. 13 overall pick in the 1989 NFL draft. The other is a more recent and familiar name, Chris Johnson, who was the No. 24 overall pick in 2008 by the Titans.

Like those players, Gibbs offers instant speed, elusiveness in space, impressive vision as a runner and polished playnaking skills as a receiver. Gibbs doesn’t have Johnson’s rarefied speed or Metcalf’s power through initial contact, but he blends them to close proximity.

I expect Gibbs’ rookie stats to split the difference between what Metcalf did for the Browns in 1989 and how Johnson impacted Tennessee back in 2008. Here’s what those two did as rookies:

Metcalf: 187 carries, 633 yards, 3.4 ypc, 6 TDs; 54 receptions, 397 yards, 4 TDs

Johnson: 251 carries, 1,228 yards, 4.9 ypc; 43 catches, 260 yards, 1 TD

Split the difference between those (roughly) and factor in a lower workload in a more shared backfield for Gibbs, who will split time (and also share at times) with David Montgomery. Gibbs should end up with rookie stats that look something like this:

137 carries, 603 yards, 4.4 ypc, 5 TDs; 55 receptions, 632 yards, 4 TDs

The Lions OL is considerably better than the one Metcalf played behind, and that will help the YPC. Gibbs has more wiggle in space than Johnson and better route detail, which helps the YAC and receiving yards.

So how did Metcalf and Johnson’s teams do in their rookie years?

The 1989 Browns, like the ’88 edition, lost to the Broncos in the AFC Championship game. Metcalf was a direct replacement for Earnest Byner, who was exiled after “The Fumble” a year earlier. John Elway fans know the ’89 version as “The Drive”.

The 2008 Titans went 13-3 and won the AFC South. They lost to the Ravens in the first round of the playoffs in a 13-10 slugfest where Tennessee lost two fumbles (neither by Johnson), failed twice in fourth down conversions and missed a short FG attempt.

3 surprising contributors for the Detroit Lions offense in 2023

3 surprising contributors for the Detroit Lions offense in 2023

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Over the next several months, we’ll see the Detroit Lions ironing out their roster on a regular basis. Whether it be cutting offensive lineman or confirming a seventh round pick wide receiver to their 53-man roster. Whatever the case may be, the Lions roster has a lot of potential. After looking over the roster these last few days, here are three players that could be surprising contributors for the 2023 season.

WR Kalif Raymond 

Believe it or not but Kalif Raymond was ranked 3rd on the team for receptions last season. With 47 receptions for 616 yards, Raymond has put together back-to-back seasons of solid production. With wide receiver Jameson Williams suspended for the first six weeks of the season, the Lions could lean on Raymond as the teams 2nd or 3rd receiver.

When watching Raymond, you can see that he can be used in a variety of ways. He can run vertically down the field and has shown that he can track the football or run past the opposition. Meanwhile, he’s effective in the short and intermediate areas of the field. With the experience that Raymond has in this Lions offense, it wouldn’t be surprising if he gets the nod over players such as Antoine Green, Trinity Benson and other receivers trying to make the roster. There’s potential for Raymond to flirt with 50 receptions for a third consecutive season for the Lions.

TE Sam LaPorta

This one might not be as surprising, but Sam LaPorta could be incredibly productive as a rookie for the Lions. He has the ability to run after-the-catch on a consistent basis and  can create separation at ease with his route running ability. LaPorta is a fluid athlete that should easily get the nod as the starting tight end in this offense. I could see him ending up with 50 receptions for over 500 yards this season.

OL Colby Sorsdal 

As we’ve seen from the Lions in the past, they like to bring on an additional offensive lineman as a tight end to block. With some uncertainty surrounding Halapoulivaati Vaitai at right guard, we could easily see scenarios where Graham Glasgow or Colby Sorsdal play there. Meanwhile, we could also see Sorsdal used as a tight end or a swing tackle.

When watching Sorsdal, you’ll see that he can play too high or lean too far forward but he’s athletic with good lateral quickness to reach block and pull. There’s potential for Sorsdal to play more than expected as a rookie. While that could be bad due to potential injuries or it’s being hopeful that he catches on quickly as the coaching staff carves out a role for him up front.