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Rookie stat projections are always a dicey proposition. The transition from college to the pros is different for every player, what with the divergent schemes, new roles, upgrades in competition and distance around the learning curve.
Even so, it’s fair game to try and project how a rookie will perform in a role. For Detroit running back Jahmyr Gibbs, injecting him into the Lions offense is more than just replacing what D’Andre Swift did in the similar role in 2022.
As a draft evaluator, I came up with two comparable players for Gibbs. One comes from a long time ago: Eric Metcalf, the No. 13 overall pick in the 1989 NFL draft. The other is a more recent and familiar name, Chris Johnson, who was the No. 24 overall pick in 2008 by the Titans.
Like those players, Gibbs offers instant speed, elusiveness in space, impressive vision as a runner and polished playnaking skills as a receiver. Gibbs doesn’t have Johnson’s rarefied speed or Metcalf’s power through initial contact, but he blends them to close proximity.
I expect Gibbs’ rookie stats to split the difference between what Metcalf did for the Browns in 1989 and how Johnson impacted Tennessee back in 2008. Here’s what those two did as rookies:
Metcalf: 187 carries, 633 yards, 3.4 ypc, 6 TDs; 54 receptions, 397 yards, 4 TDs
Johnson: 251 carries, 1,228 yards, 4.9 ypc; 43 catches, 260 yards, 1 TD
Split the difference between those (roughly) and factor in a lower workload in a more shared backfield for Gibbs, who will split time (and also share at times) with David Montgomery. Gibbs should end up with rookie stats that look something like this:
137 carries, 603 yards, 4.4 ypc, 5 TDs; 55 receptions, 632 yards, 4 TDs
The Lions OL is considerably better than the one Metcalf played behind, and that will help the YPC. Gibbs has more wiggle in space than Johnson and better route detail, which helps the YAC and receiving yards.
So how did Metcalf and Johnson’s teams do in their rookie years?
The 1989 Browns, like the ’88 edition, lost to the Broncos in the AFC Championship game. Metcalf was a direct replacement for Earnest Byner, who was exiled after “The Fumble” a year earlier. John Elway fans know the ’89 version as “The Drive”.
The 2008 Titans went 13-3 and won the AFC South. They lost to the Ravens in the first round of the playoffs in a 13-10 slugfest where Tennessee lost two fumbles (neither by Johnson), failed twice in fourth down conversions and missed a short FG attempt.