Category: Projections

Projecting what a Myles Garrett contract extension might look like

Projecting what a Myles Garrett contract extension might look like

Myles Garrett is going to get paid handsomely with his next contract. The standout defensive end and the Browns have already begun talks about an extension for Garrett, whose rookie contract expires after the 2021 NFL season concludes.

How much is Garrett going to get with his next contract?

Some other recent deals for top-end pass rushers help paint a picture of just how much money Garrett will earn. Just like selling houses, recent comparable player contracts are the best way to assess value.

Total value Guaranteed Date signed
Frank Clark, Chiefs $104M/5 yr. $62.3M April 2019
Demarcus Lawrence, Cowboys $105M/5 yr. $65M April 2019
Trey Flowers, Lions $90M/5 yr. $40M March 2019
Arik Armstead, 49ers $85M/5 yr. $40M March 2020

The Clark and Lawrence deals are likely the floor for Garrett based on on-field performance. Garrett has a higher sack and pressure production level than either, and he’ll be younger at the time of signing.

Garrett interjected a variable into the equation with his 6-game suspension for clubbing Steelers QB Mason Rudolph over the head with Rudolph’s helmet, ending his 2019 season. It was Garrett’s first suspension for losing his cool on the field, but it wasn’t the first time he was punished for a spontaneous outburst of anger. He was fined twice in 2019 prior to the Steelers incident for over-aggressive acts.

The behavior issues could impact the top-end of his guaranteed money. Garrett is in viable danger for another lengthy suspension for even what earned his fine against the Titans last year, striking TE Delanie Walker across the facemask with an open hand. Nobody, except maybe Steelers fans, expects Garrett to have another brouhaha, but nobody expected what happened with Rudolph either. You can bet that comes up in the negotiations.

Even with that, expect at least $110 million for five years for Garrett if he elects to sign that long-term of a deal. Some players are opting for shorter contracts as an opportunity to sign more contracts over the life of their careers. If that’s the case, plan on Garrett bagging $22 million per year.

That price tag only goes up if Garrett replicates what he did in 10 games in 2019 during the 2020 season. That’s why the Browns are so interested in locking up No. 95 for a long time.

Charley Casserly: ‘Cleveland Browns, you’re a playoff team’

Former NFL GM Charley Casserly declares, ‘Cleveland Browns, you’re a playoff team’

The refrain is one that Browns fans are eminently familiar with in reference to their beloved team.

“Throw the name out. Just write down the team on paper. They’re a playoff team.”

It’s back once again in 2020. This time around that exact quote comes from former NFL GM Charley Casserly. Now with the NFL Network, Casserly uttered the star-crossed praise in a segment this week.

After leading off with picking the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the team from the NFC that missed the playoffs in 2019 but make it in 2020, Casserly lauded the Browns as the AFC designee.

Citing the rebuilt offensive line and the offseason devotion to helping Baker Mayfield become the best quarterback he can be, Casserly again repeated the oft-cursed proclamation,

“Cleveland Browns, you’re a playoff team. You gotta step up and do it now.”

 

ESPN’s forecast model leaves the Browns just outside the playoffs

ESPN’s forecast model leaves the Browns just outside the playoffs

We won’t know until January if the Cleveland Browns will make the playoffs in the 2020 NFL season. Trying to project the season outcome before training camp is still a fun parlor game, however. And one of the more prominent prognostications forecasts the Browns missing out on the postseason in Kevin Stefanski’s first season as Cleveland’s coach.

ESPN’s prediction model sees the Browns with a 46 percent chance of qualifying for the postseason despite an uptick to a projected 8.2 wins. That finishes behind eight other teams in the AFC in terms of playoff percentage outcome.

Interestingly, the forecast model gives the Browns the best chance to capture the AFC’s No. 7 seed in the newly expanded playoff system. It’s a projection with low odds but still highlights the viability of the postseason for the new-look Browns.

“No team is more likely to earn a No. 7 seed than the Cleveland Browns, who hold a 10% chance that they land precisely in that slot.”

Browns defense not earning respect in Touchdown Wire’s rankings

The poor finish in 2019 without Myles Garrett weighs heavily

Any defense featuring Myles Garrett, Sheldon Richardson, Denzel Ward, Larry Ogunjobi, Olivier Vernon and a promising young supporting cast figures to be one of the NFL’s better units. Alas, it didn’t play out that way in 2019. Based on the preseason defensive unit rankings from Touchdown Wire, there is skepticism that the talent won’t equal the sum of its parts in 2020, either.

Cleveland checks in at No. 21, smack dab between Seattle and Indianapolis, in the preseason look at all 32 NFL teams and their defensive units.

The commentary offers a mix of upbeat optimism for brighter days under new coordinator Joe Woods with the downer that was the dramatic falloff by the 2019 unit after Myles Garrett got suspended.

Cleveland was as loaded with talent as any team, but fell from 14th to 26th in Defensive DVOA in the second half of the season as the offense similarly fell apart. The good news is that there are pieces with which to build for new defensive coordinator Joe Woods. Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams are two of the league’s best young cornerbacks, defensive lineman Larry Ogunjobi remains an underrated force, and two LSU draftees — safety Grant Delpit and linebacker Jacob Phillips — should help the middle of the defense.

The poor finish in 2019 under adverse circumstances is definitely discouraging, but the talent in the front four and back five is fully capable of elevating the new-look Browns defense well above the current 21st ranking.

Larry Ogunjobi: Projecting the Browns defensive tackle’s next contract

Larry Ogunjobi: Projecting the Browns defensive tackle’s next contract

Larry Ogunjobi is entering the final season of his four-year rookie deal. Every indication is the Cleveland Browns intend to keep the young defensive tackle.

It will require GM Andrew Berry making an investment in Ogunjobi that might seem higher than expected for a player of his relatively low national profile. Ogunjobi doesn’t figure to come cheap.

He posted 50 tackles and 5.5 sacks in 2019 one year after notching 52 tackles and the same 5.5 sacks in his second season. Ogunjobi accomplished those near mirror numbers in different defensive schemes. Consistency across scheme is something the NFL will value highly.

What will Ogunjobi get in his next contract? Here are a few similar players and the contracts they’ve earned recently to provide a baseline for negotiations between the Browns and Ogunjobi.

Matt Ioannidis, Redskins

Ioannidis signed a 3-year extension in April of 2019 valued at $21.75 million. Just over $11 million was fully guaranteed. His deal also includes per-game roster bonuses that tally $300,000 per season.

Ioannidis, who plays both tackle and end in Washington’s well-stocked defensive front, tallied 12 sacks and 58 total tackles in the two seasons prior to earning his new payday. He’s the figurative floor for Ogunjobi in his negotiations with Cleveland.

Javon Hargrave, Eagles

Hargrave moved across Pennsylvania from the Steelers to the Eagles this offseason. The Eagles gave him $39 million over three years to make the free agency jump, with $25.5 million guaranteed.

Hargrave, like Ogunjobi, was a 3rd-round pick who stepped up after a rookie season of learning to play in the NFL. In his last two seasons with the Steelers, Hargrave posted 109 total tackles and 10.5 sacks. He’s more of a nose tackle than Ogunjobi, but the statistical similarities are more pertinent than the positional designation.

Jordan Phillips, Cardinals

Phillips earned a 3-year, $30 million contract in free agency this offseason to join Arizona. He cashed in on a breakout 2019 with Buffalo, notching 9.5 sacks and 31 tackles for the Bills. Prior to that standout season, Phillips had been an underwhelming journeyman-type player, bouncing from Miami to Buffalo and functioning as more of a role player than a prime free agent.

Phillips is guaranteed just $14.5 million at signing, a lower percentage than Ioannidis or Hargrave. That is perhaps a reflection on his one-year-wonder status, but it could also be a gateway for him to ask for more money down the line if he repeats his 2019.

Ogunjobi should command at least the same deal as the one Phillips signed with the Cardinals. He very well could match Hargrave’s new contract, and that’s a deal that could price him out of Cleveland if the Browns wait for him to post another 5-sack, 50-tackle season.

The pivotal 3-game stretch that could sway the Browns season

The pivotal 3-game stretch that could sway the Browns season

The Cleveland Browns went into the 2019 season with all-time high expectations. The season did not play out the way we all had dreamed of , however. A number of factors worked against an ultra-talented roster including injuries, distraction and an ill-equipped first-year head coach.

When examining how it all unfolded, the Browns fell behind early with a brutal 2-6 start. The ’19 schedule was very much front-loaded with difficult opponents and they failed to prevail in competitive, close games against quality opponents in either the L.A. Rams or Seattle Seahawks games. Things really began to snowball when the Browns squandered an opportunity against Denver as they ran out quarterback Brandon Allen for his first start and still fell 24-19, completing their 2-6 start.

According to CBSsports.com, the Browns have the fourth easiest schedule in the NFL this season, which is a pretty useless statistic and can only really be configured after the games are played. It is worth noting that the Browns do not have to make any cross-country trips to play in the Pacific time zone.

The pivotal three-game swing

The most important stretch of games that the Browns will play in 2020 is Weeks 4-6.

Week 4     At Dallas Cowboys       1:00 PM Eastern    FOX

Week 5     Indianapolis Colts        4:25 PM Eastern    CBS

Week 6     At Pittsburgh Steelers 1:00 PM Eastern    CBS

The first three games of the season could provide the Browns with any number of outcomes, but how they handle the next three games will carry significant weight in deciding the fate of the 2020 Browns.

Three difficult opponents, two on the road after an opener in Baltimore and the Browns could very easily come out this stretch under .500. They could be starring 2-4 in the face unless they come out of the gate playing to their potential and exhibiting the character to grind out some close games against playoff-caliber opponents.

Character is the key word here. The Browns have the talent and improved offensive line to beat any team on their schedule, the question is can new head coach Kevin Stefanski instill this team with the edge and identity they have failed to find so far?

What this stretch of games presents, besides good football teams, is that test of character. If this team falls below .500 in the first half of the season, will we see the “Here we go again” Browns? It’s an easy trap to fall into and it takes wholesale roster buy-in to overcome. They cannot go through this stretch of games, come out on the other side 2-4 and go in the tank, because everyone will be screaming “same old Browns.”

This team has to go win a big game or two in this stretch because coming out the other side at 3-3 or better and they are in good shape. Winning during this stretch avoids that familiar feeling of a bad start and keeps that doubt from creeping in. A win against any of those three opponents will go along way to self-validation in the locker room.

If they struggle through this stretch it will be on Stefanski to keep his team from mentally going right back to where they were last year. 2-4 doesn’t end the season, the wins are on the schedule. However, a newfound mental toughness and leadership will be needed to persevere.

This is the toughest three-game stretch of the season and it comes at a point where teams can be vulnerable about who they really are. For the Browns, weeks 4-6 can jettison them towards success and the character of a winning team or back into a precarious place all too familiar.

Report: Browns will lose $113 million in stadium revenue with no fans at games

A report from Forbes calculates the Cleveland Browns will lose $113 million in stadium revenue with no fans at games at FirstEnergy Stadium

Nobody knows exactly what is going to happen with the NFL’s 2020 season. While the players and league are working on various plans of how to progress in the age of the COVID-19 pandemic, something Browns center JC Tretter shed a lot of light upon in his conference call this week, there is no definite answer for anything just yet.

One of the popular proposals and theories is for teams to play in empty stadiums. That’s the current model in Korean baseball and German soccer and is a definite possibility for a variety of American sports. If that happens, the Browns will lose a significant source of income.

According to a report in Forbes, the Browns would stand to lose $113 million in revenue if the games are played with no fans in the seats. The figure is based on 2018 stadium revenue for all 32 NFL teams and represents 37 percent of the Browns’ total revenue stream.

As author Mike Ozanian notes,

A season without fans would also hurt the players. In March, the league agreed to a new collective bargaining agreement that allocated 47% of football-related income to the players in 2020 and 48% in 2021.

The NFL has still yet to make any decisions on fans or player access, but it’s a hot topic of conversation. With so much money at stake, it’s hard to see the NFL playing in front of empty stadiums for long, if at all.

Jedrick Wills tabbed as Browns’ breakout player by Bleacher Report

Wills gets the nod over Njoku, Greedy and others

In its annual projection of the breakout players for each NFL team, Bleacher Report made an interesting choice for the Cleveland Browns. With skill position candidates like David Njoku, freshly re-signed Rashard Higgins and second-year starting CB Greedy Williams all viable candidates, they opted for first-round pick Jedrick Wills.

It’s an interesting choice, though it does make some sense based on what kind of impact Wills can have on the team as the starting left tackle.

After a miserable 2019 season that included struggles at the tackle position, the Browns made big changes at that spot in the offseason. Veteran Jack Conklin will be tasked with holding down the right side after joining the team in free agency. And Wills will ostensibly flip to the left side after playing right tackle for left-handed signal caller Tua Tagovailoa in Tuscaloosa last year.

With so many other standouts on the offense already well-established, it makes sense to roll with Wills as the breakout candidate. That’s another part of the equation alluded to in the notes,

“The Browns have no shortage of offensive firepower, but for Baker Mayfield to bounce back this year, he needs better blocking ahead of him.”

Helping Mayfield get back to his rookie sensation form would definitely qualify Wills as the breakthrough standout in Cleveland.

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Reverse engineering the Browns’ win-loss predictions from reporters of other teams

Reverse engineering the Browns’ win-loss predictions from the ESPN reporters of other teams shows the Browns still lack national respect

The quick-take reactions to the schedule release and seemingly requisite game-by-game predictions from NFL reporters and analysts are often very good looks into the national perception of a team. Judging by the game picks involving the Cleveland Browns from the ESPN writers for every team, the Browns still have a way to go to earn some respect.

ESPN’s own Cleveland reporter, Jake Trotter, predicted a 9-7 finish for Kevin Stefanski’s first Browns team. That’s a fair prediction coming out of the schedule release (I projected a 10-6 finish).

But a deeper look at what the other ESPN beat writers projected for their respective teams in going through each game paints a less rosy outlook for Cleveland. Here’s how the ESPN NFL Nation reporters projected each Browns game to wind up for their squad:

Week 1 – Ravens: win

Week 2 – Bengals: loss

Week 3 – Redskins: loss

Week 4 – Cowboys: win

Week 5 – Colts: win

Week 6 – Steelers: win

Week 7 – Bengals: win

Week 8 – Raiders: win

Week 9 – Bye

Week 10 – Texans: win

Week 11 – Eagles: loss

Week 12 – Jaguars: win

Week 13 – Titans: win

Week 14 – Ravens: win

Week 15 – Giants: loss

Week 16 – Jets: win

Week 17 – Steelers: loss

That’s a 5-11 record as predicted by the folks who cover the other teams. Most analysts will feel better about their own team than others, to be fair. And the lack of respect for the Browns for their recent poor results is to be expected.

Baker Mayfield and the sophomore slump: How other QBs have recovered

Baker Mayfield isn’t the first prominent QB to have a sophomore slump. What happened with other QBs beyond that Year 2 decline

The sophomore slump proved a very real phenomenon for Baker Mayfield. Cleveland’s quarterback wasn’t as sharp or composed in his second season at the helm for the Browns in 2019. It was a stark contrast to his record-setting rookie campaign in 2018, a great debut that landed Mayfield national endorsement deals and strong MVP odds.

That momentum is now cooled after both Mayfield and his supporting cast played at a lower level in his second year. Now Mayfield is on the spot to prove the hardships of his sophomore slump are a building block, a necessary setback on the way to bigger and better things.

There is ample historical precedent for precisely that happening for Mayfield. Several great quarterbacks suffered the sophomore slump after a superior rookie season and then rebounded nicely. The list goes back as far as Hall-of-Famer Fran Tarkenton.

Here are some recent quarterbacks who fell off from Year 1 to Year 2 and how they wound up performing in the longer-term once the sophomore slump was in the rearview mirror.

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