Category: Projections

Updated Bucs playoff and division odds following Week 11

ESPN has released its updated playoff predictors, and the Bucs is starting to feel like the playoffs may soon be out of reach.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers sit on the season with a 4-6 record through 11 weeks of the season. The team is scoring like one of the best teams in the NFL, while their defense continues to let them down weekly. If the team wants to turn things around, it starts with the defense.

ESPN has released its updated playoff predictors, and the Bucs is starting to feel like the playoffs may soon be out of reach.

They did get a boost from teams losing while they healed up during their Bye Week. Their playoff chances rose to 32%, and their chances of winning the division jumped to 27%.

While those odds are increased, their chances of earning a Bye Week in the playoffs or making the Super Bowl remain long. Those odds sit at less than 1% and 2%, respectively.

Regardless of those final two numbers, there is plenty to be excited about if you are a Bucs fan with the odds looking better.

Updated Vikings playoff and division odds following Week 11

ESPN has released its updated playoff predictors, and the Vikings are starting to feel comfortable about the playoffs. 

The Minnesota Vikings sit on the season with an 8-2 record through 11 weeks of the season. The team is playing like one of the best in the NFL, not just the NFC, but what are their chances for the playoffs and winning the division?

ESPN has released its updated playoff predictors, and the Vikings are starting to feel comfortable about the playoffs.

ESPN currently has the Vikings’ playoff chances at 95% to make them. Barring a collapse of epic proportions; they are set for the playoffs. However, their odds of winning the division sit at just 10% so that is a bit of an uphill climb for Minnesota.

Some other interesting odds that they included were for the team to earn a Bye Week (7%) and to make the Super Bowl (11%). Both are pretty far-fetched for the team, but they are fun to monitor. With so many division games down the stretch for this team, starting this weekend with the Bears, things are likely to change.

Bucs predicted to have a successful season, win NFC South, from ESPN

We got rid of the BCS, and since then, we have seen so many different projection methods and forms of analysis pop up in its place.

Nothing spurs a conversation into overdrive like a computer’s season prediction. We got rid of the BCS in college football, and since then, we have seen so many different projection methods and forms of analysis pop up in its place.

The latest is ESPN’s FPI.

The football power index predicts an NFL team’s winning percentage of games on its schedule. Seth Walder of ESPN published the results this week, the results gave a result that Bucs fans are used to seeing at this rate.

Walder’s projection model has the Buccaneers going 10-7 in 2024 and winning the NFC South. The next closest team to them in the division is actually the Saints, not the Falcons, as many would expect.

Their season is also projected to go as far as the divisional round of the playoffs before losing to the San Francisco 49ers on the road in the playoffs.

Obviously this is just what a computer is telling the sports world but the projection of 10-7 may not be far off. Don’t count out this team though to pull off some extra wins. The coaching staff and front office have built something special here and 2024 is the year they maximize it.

ESPN predicts how the Vikings 2024 season will go and it’s not great

The football power index and Seth Walder of ESPN published the results this week, which were unfavorable to the Vikings.

There is nothing that spurs a conversation into overdrive like a computer’s season prediction. We got rid of the BCS in college football, and since then, we have seen so many different projection methods and forms of analysis pop up in its place.

The latest is ESPN’s FPI.

The football power index predicts an NFL team’s winning percentage of games on its schedule. Seth Walder of ESPN published the results this week, which were unfavorable to the Vikings.

“The result? A paltry four-win season. But with the losing came hope in the form of the No. 1 overall pick. With their quarterback already in hand — J.J. McCarthy is the QB of the future here, despite his right meniscus tear — the Vikings enter the offseason in position to deal the No. 1 pick to a QB-needy team for a series of selections that will bolster the roster for an immediate turnaround. The present is bleak in Minnesota, but the future is bright.”

That’s right, folks. The Vikings are predicted to have the worst record in the NFL and earn the top pick in the NFL draft.

As Walder mentions here, that actually is a good thing for the Vikings in the long term. They can trade the first pick overall for a king ransom and recover picks in the 2025 NFL Draft while also getting some for 2026 and potentially even 2027.

This roster is not built to win right now without J.J. McCarthy. They have the right players locked up long-term, and they can build around McCarthy for a strong 2026. If this happens, it won’t be very nice but there may finally be light on the other side.

Vikings only favored in two games in 2024 in latest ESPN projections

Once rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy went down the for year, everyone took a step back and realized it was going to be different in 2024.

The Minnesota Vikings are expected to be in for a long season by more than one definition of the word. Once rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy went down the for year, everyone took a step back and realized it would be different in 2024.

The difference was that expectations dropped significantly, and so did win projections for the team.

Mike Clay of ESPN published his latest projections for the 2024 season. Within those is a bunch of functional data that we suggest looking at, but we want to focus on one thing specifically: projected win percentage.

That stat has the Vikings projected to be favored in just two wins in the 2024 NFL season.

These two games are the opener against the New York Giants in Week 1 and the Arizona Cardinals in Week 13. The Cardinals are an exciting projection, as Jonathon Gannon has proven to be a great coach who can get the most out of his players.

Coaches Kevin O’Connell and Brian Flores will have their work cut out for them this season. More significantly, it will be a significant year for General Manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, as 2025 is the last year on his contract.

Vikings QB Sam Darnold ranked among the league’s worst starters

The Sporting News’ NFL analyst Vinnie Iyer ranks Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold as the third-worst starter in the league for 2024

Even before J.J. McCarthy injured his knee and was lost for the season, we knew that the Minnesota Vikings would head into the season with Sam Darnold as their starting quarterback. The question wasn’t if Darnold would start, it was how long he would remain the starter. It was assumed that it was only a matter of time before Darnold’s play would warrant a switch.

Now, that’s not an option, and Darnold has a firm hold on the starting job, and the Vikings are going to be in a world of hurt if Darnold gets hurt or struggles as he has through most of his career. That history of struggle has many pessimistic about Darnold’s future with the Vikings, and the Vikings’ chances this season.

Among those who are pessimistic is The Sporting News NFL analyst Vinnie Iyer. Iyer recently released his rankings of all the starting quarterbacks in the NFL, ranked 1-32, and Darnold’s placement on the list doesn’t instill confidence that Minnesota can win much in 2024.

The Vikings were able to stay in playoff contention for much of the 2023 season with a quarterback carousel after Kirk Cousins tore his Achilles, so it’s possible the talent on the roster — particularly on defense — can carry the team once again. But they’ll need to with Darnold ranking as the 30th starting quarterback in the league, according to Iyer.

That ranking puts Darnold ahead of just two starting quarterbacks: Las Vegas Raiders’ Gardner Minshew, who was a surprise choice over last year’s starter Aidan O’Connell, and New England Patriots first-round pick Drake Maye, who still hasn’t been officially named the starter over Jacoby Brissett.

That alone speaks volumes about how Iyer — and, to a certain extent, the general populace — sees Darnold as a starter. And that pessimism is warranted for the former third-overall selection. Darnold has famously struggled throughout his career, at one point becoming a meme for proclaiming he was “seeing ghosts out there.”

Still, the talent around Darnold is strong, with arguably the best wide receiver in the league, Justin Jefferson, to throw to. He also has one of the better left tackles in the league, Christian Darrisaw, to protect him. If ever there was a time for Darnold to succeed, it’s now. He’s never had a better supporting cast around him, save for his time in San Francisco — where he seldom saw the field behind Brock Purdy.

Three Vikings make ESPN’s top 100 players for 2024 list

ESPN released their top 100 players for 2024, and three Minnesota Vikings make the list, with Justin Jefferson leading the way at 3.

The NFL’s preseason is over, and the regular season is finally approaching. Less than two weeks before the season kicks off, media outlets are getting one last push of content in anticipation of the season. That includes ESPN unveiling their picks for the top 100 players of 2024.

To create their list, ESPN surveyed dozens of in-house NFL experts to obtain their opinions on players for the upcoming season. The criteria were solely focused on projecting the coming season, disregarding past performance.

The Minnesota Vikings have three players on the list for this season. The first player on the list is offensive tackle Christian Darrisaw, who comes in at number 97 for ESPN. In their justification, they point out that Darrisaw’s movement skills are one of his best features as a lineman. He can block in space on screens and quick passes.

His “signature stat” was his run block win rate of 77%, which is the highest on the team. Their only question about Darrisaw—and likely why he isn’t significantly higher on this list—is his injury history. Still, they believe that Darrisaw will be selected for a Pro Bowl and/or All-Pro selection shortly.

Speaking of injuries, the next Viking on the list is tight end T.J. Hockenson, who comes in at number 79. However, Hockenson is likely to start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list and miss the beginning portion of the season.

Despite that, when Hockenson returns, he will likely be a major part of the Vikings’ offense. His “signature stat” is that he is one of only three tight ends to have 50 or more receptions and 500 or more receiving yards in each of the past four seasons, joining Kansas City Chiefs Travis Kelce and Houston Texans’ Dalton Schultz.

Unsurprisingly, the final Vikings player on ESPN’s Top 100 for 2024 is Justin Jefferson. Jefferson kicks off the top 3 for ESPN’s projection, coming in behind only quarterbacks Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes, making Jefferson the highest-rated non-quarterback on the list. Which goes along well with his new contract that makes him the highest-paid non-quarterback in league history.

Despite playing only 10 games in 2023 due to a lingering hamstring injury, Jefferson still turned in his fourth-straight season over 1,000 yards, despite the quarterback carousel the Vikings experienced after Kirk Cousins’s injury. Jefferson proved last season that it doesn’t matter who throws him the ball; he’s going to produce.

He will have to prove that again this season, as the Vikings are slated to have Sam Darnold as their starting quarterback, who has famously struggled so far in his career. If Darnold struggles again this season, it could be a repeat at the position for Minnesota.

Jefferson’s “signature stat” is his average of nearly 100 yards (98.3) per game over his four seasons, which is the highest mark in NFL history for players with at least 50 career games.

Vikings get a win projection from Minnesota Governor Tim Walz

The Minnesota Vikings have been conducting practices in front of the public this week and they got a notable visitor on Tuesday.

The Minnesota Vikings have been conducting practices in front of the public this week, and they got a notable visitor on Tuesday who provided a win projection for the team. The projection came from someone who has a good idea of identifying numbers and projecting them in terms of wins or losses.

The projection came from Minnesota Governor Tim Walz.

While visiting Vikings Training Camp on Tuesday, the Governor of the state of Minnesota was seen conversing with General Manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah.

Walz also made his way to the media and had quite a crowd around him. When asked how many wins he saw the Vikings having in 2024, he responded with, “Eleven games, plug your ears, Vikings fans. I think we win 11.”

Walz, who is being considered for a Vice Presidential nomination on the Kamala Harris ticket, was asked if how he would get the vote of Packers fans in Wisconsin. He jokingly played along and said, “No. I’ll lose those votes I think in Wisconsin. I’m Vikings all the way so I might not help in that swing state.”

This Lions season projection is a thorn in the positivity paw

USA TODAY national analyst Nate Davis is one of the few not projecting the Detroit Lions to win the NFC North in 2024

In years past, it was quite notable when a national NFL analyst projected big things for the Detroit Lions. Years of futility and disappointment made finding an optimistic, bullish take on the Lions ahead of training camp a rarity.

Not anymore, certainly not after Detroit’s 2023 campaign — the best season for the Lions in the Super Bowl era. This summer, it’s notable when an analyst pours some cold water on the fiery dreams and visions of Detroit grandeur for 2024. Yet we did manage to find one…

Nate Davis of USA TODAY is one of the few national analysts who has broken ranks with the Lions as the predicted winners of the NFC North. Davis instead projects the Green Bay Packers to take back the divisional crown in 2024, with the Lions finishing second.

Davis does have the Lions finishing comfortably in the playoffs with a record of 11-6, good enough for the top wild card seed.

The rest of a division the Lions just won for the first time is also fast improving. A pathway to the first Super Bowl berth in franchise history likely requires a strong start as the Lions play just two home games over an eight-week period spanning October and November. But it could happen if a young core continues to blossom – WR Jameson Williams needs to step up – and reaps results from an upgraded pass defense.

In propping up the Packers, Davis notes their youth and also a change in defensive coordinator that Green Bay hopes overcome recent underachievement from that unit.

Expanding out the projections, Davis has the Lions knocking off the NFC South champs, the Atlanta Falcons, in the wild card round game before succumbing to the Packers in Green Bay in the NFC Divisional Round.

A quick check of last year’s predictions shows Davis is not a Lions hater; he correctly pegged them as the NFC North champs, going 11-6. Detroit did indeed win the division for the first time, finishing 12-5.

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Lions defensive line depth could be the strength of the defense

Lions defensive line depth could be the strength of the defense, notes Lions Wire’s Russell Brown

As we all await for the Detroit Lions season to get started, it’s fun to look at their schedule, depth chart and speculate the potential of the season. When looking at the Lions defense, it’s hard to look past their defensive line. The depth from this unit runs deep and the 53-man roster could easily see 10-to-12 players from the defensive line on it.

The projected starters are currently:

  • Aidan Hutchinson
  • D.J. Reader
  • Alim McNeill
  • Marcus Davenport

But as we’ve seen under Aaron Glenn’s defense, the Lions use players up front on a situational basis. The key depth players could be the following:

  • John Cominsky
  • Josh Paschal
  • Levi Onwuzurike

It’s expected that a player such as Brodric Martin could really take a big step forward this season. He appears to be in much better football shape than he was a season ago and if Reader or McNeill struggle with any type of injury, he could be the next man up.

Adding to that, the Lions added Mekhi Wingo from LSU in the 2024 NFL Draft. Recently, I discussed him as a potential underrated player to the Lions defense so we’ll need to see what he does in a situational role for the team.

That alone gives the Lions nine defensive lineman that should see the field on a consistent basis. The wildcards of the group are James Houston, Kyle Peko and Mathieu Betts.

Starting with Betts, he’s coming off an 18-sack season in the CFL and not only did it earn him a contract with the Lions but it also helped him win the CFL’s Most Outstanding Defensive Player Award. While he is 29-years old, I’d have to think he should find a spot on the roster but nothing is guaranteed. He was brought onto the roster to compete and my guess is that he’s here to compete with James Houston.

Things are interesting with Houston. He broke his ankle in week 2 last season and was placed on injured reserve. Despite being activated off the IR in January of 2024, the Lions never played him. Houston did have 8 sacks as a rookie and he does provide plenty of juice off the edge. However, comments from Dan Campbell last season makes me wonder if he’s a player on the bubble this summer.

Lastly, the expectations shouldn’t be overly high for Kyle Peko. He’s got familiarity with Lions defensive line coach Terrell Williams but he’s primarily been a rotational player in his career. With the Lions already having depth on the interior, he could be the odd man out this summer.

Regardless, the Lions have a deep roster of defensive lineman. With any down and distance, we could see any combination on the field. Those combinations should play to the strengths of the defense and it could be the difference maker to help this unit stay more consistent for the 2024 season.