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The five best NFL player prop bets to make for the upcoming week.
This week’s picks feature three of the game’s elite receivers making on-field statements, an injured quarterback who has too big a number for passing yards, and a young running back returning overseas to the city where he had the greatest game of his career.
Note: Odds are provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
The smartest wagers to make for NFL Week 4 action.
Week 4 is going to be the last time bettors will have 16 games to choose from for the next month, so we’ll go big with big-time teams.
This week, we’re betting on both defending conference champions, a storied divisional rivalry bringing more fireworks than expected, the greatest defensive mind of his generation doing his thing, and a bad prime-time double-dip for New York fans.
Note: Odds are provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
Be sure to check out our comprehensive NFL Week 4 betting guide.
It’s hard to say that Week 4 is critical in the NFL, but there will be significant playoff ramifications for a lot of the top teams.
On this week’s slate of games, five of them pit two teams with winning records (either 3-0 or 2-1). All five of them are division games (Lions-Packers, Dolphins-Bills, Buccaneers-Saints, Ravens-Browns and Commanders-Eagles).
Week 4 won’t even put us 25 percent of the way through the 2023 season, but many will point to those Week 4 games as the game that put one of the teams in the driver’s seat when division titles are won and lost.
The Lions are a minimal road favorite (1.5 points at -110 for both Lions and Packers). Green Bay made a furious fourth-quarter comeback last week, down 17-0. The Lions made a statement late last year by keeping the Packers out of the playoffs with a win at Lambeau and do it again this season. Take the Lions and lay 1.5 points (-110).
This is a standard home spread for the Jaguars (3 points at -110 for both teams). The Falcons are extremely run-dependent (91 of their 191 offensive snaps are runs). The Jaguars have been a disappointment, but their run defense has been solid. The Falcons aren’t a team built to come from behind and if the Jags get an early lead, Desmond Ridder may make things worse. Take the Jaguars and lay 3 points (-110).
Miami has taken big-play offense to the next level this season, which is why the Over/Under is six points higher than any game this week (53.5 at -110 for Over and Under). But, at last check, the Bills have put up 75 points in the last two games. The oddsmakers have to keep a number from being too high that everyone bets Under, but this one isn’t high enough for these two teams. Take Over 53.5 points (-110).
A “For Relatives Only” game, these are the two most brutal teams in the league. The Over/Under is intriguing (46 points at -110 for both), because — while the two defenses have been horrible — their respective offenses have largely sputtered. This smells of a game of field goals, which keeps the score down. Take the Under (-110).
Everyone expects a back-alley fight dominated by the defenses, because this is tied for the lowest Over/Under of the week (40.5 points at -110 for both Over and Under). There have been a couple of those field goal games in the recent past, the Over has hit this number in seven of the last nine games. Let’s make it eight of 10. Take Over 40.5 points (-110).
The Bengals are a modest favorite (2.5 points at -105 Bengals). Joe Burrow is hobbled, but the Titans have never beaten Cincinnati in the three games he has been their quarterback. That continues. Take the Bengals and lay 2.5 points (-110).
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This Rams aren’t nearly as gruesome as many thought prior to the season. When Cooper Kupp returns, things could get interesting. The Colts are a one-point favorite. If Anthony Richardson can’t make it through his first two starts without getting knocked out, what is Aaron Donald going to do to him? Take the Rams on the moneyline (+100).
The good thing about having an O/U this low (40.5 points at -110 for both) is that it is based on Baker Mayfield and Jameis Winston as the starting quarterbacks. They both take chances. I like my chances with this game hitting the Over. Take the Over (-110).
The Eagles haven’t had the unique matchup beatdown of an opponent yet. They grinded to take down the Patriots. They flashed against the Vikings but didn’t cover. They kept the Bucs at arm’s length. They’re a strong favorite (8.5 points at -110 for both). They need a signature win, and this has all the smells of the new-look “if you can’t stop it, we don’t stop” NFL. Take the Eagles and lay 8.5 points (-110).
I’ve seen enough of the Vikings in one-score games this year. They are relatively significant early road favorites (3.5 points at -110 for both teams) in a battle of 0-3 teams. They should be 2-1, but until they show it, don’t be on board. Expect they will win, but don’t be willing to give four points to a team that hasn’t proved it deserves it. Take the Panthers plus 3 points (-110).
Both teams have been somewhat surprising given their spreads in their first three games. Neither offense has been lighting things up, which explains why the Over/Under is so low (42 points at -110 for both). Both teams have struggled to run, but both offenses are built to run. This week, they do. Take Under 42 points (-110).
The Chargers have the worst head coach in the NFL, which can be challenging for players. They were lucky last week and are overinflated favorites (5.5 points at -110 for both). But, the Raiders are trainwreck and imploding from within. Take the lesser of two evils. Take the Chargers and lay 5.5 points (-110).
This is all about the Over/Under (43 points at -110 for both). The Cowboys offense hasn’t clicked yet with any consistency – even when they’re winning. The Patriots offense is modest, at best. Both teams have defenses better than the offenses they’re up against. Take the Under (-110).
Typically, there is a comma in 1,000. For some reason there isn’t in sports gambling. It’s probably because it is so rare when it’s needed. The 49ers are a mammoth home favorite (14 points at -110 for both teams). The Cardinals beating Dallas was a cute story. This will be an ugly story. Take the 49ers and lay 14 points (-110).
The Chiefs are back in prime time and heavy road favorites (9.5 points at -110 for both teams). The Jets are a dumpster fire that came into the season with high hopes and are like a wobbly boxer ready to absorb the kill shot. The Chiefs can provide that. Take the Chiefs and lay 9.5 points (-110).
The Giants are a one-point favorite, because enough G-Men fans will bet on them to pull this one out. But, the fact is the Giants have given up 98 points in three games, aren’t built to be a come-from-behind team, and Seattle can do a lot of damage in their own right offensively. Take the Seahawks on the moneyline (-110).
Use our staff’s weekly pick’em against the spread and straight up for the win.
NFL picks are provided for straight up (moneyline) and against the spread (ATS) NFL pick pools.
Each week’s spread picks are graded by the line as of when the person entered their picks. This will create situations in which a movement of the line can result in two participants having the correct pick but with different teams chosen during an individual game.
New BetMGM customers can sign up today and get a First Bet Offer up to $1,500 using bonus code USAT. Just download the BetMGM app, deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game. If your first bet loses, you will receive bonus bets in the amount of your bet (up to $1,500). Just make sure you use bonus code USAT when you sign up. Bet Now!
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. CO, DC, IL, IN, KS, LA, MD, MS, NJ, NV, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY. Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA). 21+ to wager. Please Gamble Responsibly. Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-270-7117 for confidential help (MI), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. Visit BetMGM.com for Terms & Conditions. US promotional offers not available in DC, New York or Ontario.
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
DMD – David Dorey, SG – Steve Gallo, HS – Harley Schultz, CC – Cletis Cutts, CJB – Cory Bonini, HCG – HC Green, KH – Kevin Hickey
The five best NFL player prop bets to make for the upcoming week.
With a couple of games in the books for the NFL’s 32 teams, we have started to see trends developing and those will base this week’s picks.
We have a couple of underperforming running backs who will continue to struggle, an explosive rookie not getting the attention he deserves, the most dominant tight end in the game showing why he’s dominant, and a red-zone mismatch who will come away with a touchdown.
Note: Odds are provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
A snapshot look at the NFL betting lines and odds for Week 3 sports betting and DFS action.
A good way to start your weekly homework for DFS (daily fantasy sports) play is to analyze the early Vegas odds around Week 3.
These guys have a long history of making money off of setting the right game spread and points scored. So it can be an early indicator of teams to target due to high-scoring potential, and teams to avoid for the opposite reason.
Note: Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
OFF = No odds currently listed.
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Several surefire bets to take to the pay window!
Through the first two weeks of the season, we’ve done pretty well with our picks (8-2) because we use all three betting formats – the moneyline, the point spread, and the Over/Under – and this week is no different.
Our picks this week include a pair of winless teams getting their first “W,” a pair of legitimate Super Bowl contenders putting a beatdown on a pair of lesser teams, and a division rivalry game that has an Over/Under that looks a little too high.
Note: Odds are provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
Use our staff’s weekly pick’em against the spread and straight up for the win.
NFL picks are provided for straight up (moneyline) and against the spread (ATS) NFL pick pools.
Each week’s spread picks are graded by the line as of when the person entered their picks. This will create situations in which a movement of the line can result in two participants having the correct pick but with different teams chosen during an individual game.
New BetMGM customers can sign up today and get a First Bet Offer up to $1,500 using bonus code USAT. Just download the BetMGM app, deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game. If your first bet loses, you will receive bonus bets in the amount of your bet (up to $1,500). Just make sure you use bonus code USAT when you sign up. Bet Now!
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. CO, DC, IL, IN, KS, LA, MD, MS, NJ, NV, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY. Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA). 21+ to wager. Please Gamble Responsibly. Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-270-7117 for confidential help (MI), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. Visit BetMGM.com for Terms & Conditions. US promotional offers not available in DC, New York or Ontario.
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
DMD – David Dorey, SG – Steve Gallo, HS – Harley Schultz, CC – Cletis Cutts, CJB – Cory Bonini, HCG – HC Green, KH – Kevin Hickey
Your NFL Week 3 betting guide for all of the smartest wagers to make.
There was a time that if you started 0-2 your season was over. Good teams can lose back-to-back games at midseason and it isn’t life or death. But the playoff odds for teams starting off 0-2 drop hard.
The additional regular-season game and third wild-card team in each conference makes overcoming an 0-2 start more manageable. But if you start 0-3? That’s trouble no matter how you slice it.
Coming into Week 3, a lot of teams are on the edge of that 0-3 cliff, including 2022 playoff teams (Bengals, Vikings and Chargers) and a couple that thought they had legitimate playoff chances (Patriots and Broncos). These teams are going to be more desperate than most because the hole they’ve dug is already deep and getting a lot deeper with a third straight loss.
The Over/Under is a little too low (44.5 points at -110 for the both Over and Under). It’s not too low because of the Giants, but the 49ers have posted 30 points in each of their first two games and have the horses to top that number this week. That doesn’t require the Giants to do too much. Take the Over (-110).
This will be a watershed game for the Browns without Nick Chubb. The Titans aren’t a flashy team and are solid road underdogs (3.5 points at -110 for both teams). I think Cleveland will win, but giving away 3.5 points on a game that could go either way is hard to swallow. Take the Titans plus 3.5 points (-110).
The Lions are an improving team, but their defense is still suspect. Detroit has been established as a decent favorite (3.5 points at -110 for both), but Atlanta wins games by running the ball and controlling the pace of play. Being given 3.5 points in a game Atlanta could dominate time of possession is asking a lot. Take the Falcons plus-3.5 points (-110).
The Packers already have a lot of injuries and Jordan Love has been doing better than some expected. But Green Bay is a small favorite (2 points) for a reason. The Saints are the better team and have a defense that is going to be one of the best in the league. The mystique of Lambeau Field died years ago. Take the Saints on the moneyline (+105).
Two teams going in different directions … Miami is a solid favorite (6.5 points at -110 for both). The Dolphins are 2-0 having gone cross-country to beat the Chargers and up to New England to beat the Patriots. Now, they’re at home against a Broncos team that just doesn’t look up to the task. Take the Dolphins and lay 6.5 points (-110).
Both teams are 0-2, and the Chargers are a one-point road favorite. Minnesota is 0-2 because it has committed seven turnovers and has been minus-3 in a pair of one-score losses. The Vikings are better than their record indicates, and this will be the game they eliminate turnovers in front of the home fans. Take the Vikings on the moneyline (-110).
The Patriots have lost two one-score games, but it should be noted that the losses came to the Eagles and Dolphins – two teams viewed as Super Bowl front-runners. The Patriots are a small road favorite (2.5 points at -115 Patriots, -105 Jets). Bill Belichick is going to have a scheme to control Breece Hall. That may be all that will be required to win this one. Take the Patriots and lay 2.5 points (-115).
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The Commanders are 2-0, but the wins came against the Cardinals and Broncos. The Bills are a big road favorite (6.5 points at -110 for both teams). Buffalo hasn’t been dominant to start the season, but there are games in every season that define it. Buffalo is better in all three phases and it will show Sunday. Take the Bills and lay 6.5 points (-110).
This game has one of the lowest Over/Under numbers (43.5 points at -110 for both) of the week, but that may be because the Jaguars defense has owned the Texans. Their two meetings last year were both dominant performances by Jacksonville’s defense – a 31-3 win by the Jags and a 13-6 win by the Texans. I don’t see Houston competing in this one, but the Jaguars aren’t going to put up 40 points on their own. Take the Under (-110).
The Ravens are a legitimate Super Bowl contender, but the Over/Under in this game seems a little high (45 points at -110 for both the Over and Under). The Colts offense is without Jonathan Taylor and Anthony Richardson has been knocked out of both games in which he’s played. The Ravens defense will be in attack mode, and the offense will look to hold the ball for 40 minutes. Take the Under (-110).
The Panthers are in rebuild mode and the Seahawks are viewed as a playoff team. The Seahawks are a solid home favorite (6 points at -110 for both teams). Carolina has been able to muster only 27 points in two games. Seattle’s offense will score more than enough than is needed. Take the Seahawks and lay 6 points (-110).
One of my failings in predicting games is too often laying off big points. The Chiefs are huge favorites (12.5 points at -110 for both). The Chiefs haven’t been explosive on offense, but the Bears defense is awful. The Chiefs should win by 20, but won’t take their foot off the gas if they get a lead because of their early struggles. Take the Chiefs and lay 12.5 points (-110).
This has a lot of similarity to the Chiefs game, because the Cowboys are identical favorites (12.5 points at -110 for both teams). Dallas has a defense that is terrorizing, and the Cardinals are not going to match up well. All the Cowboys need to do is be efficient on offense and this one could be over in the third quarter. Take the Cowboys and lay 12.5 points (-110).
I’m not a believer in the Raiders, so I wasn’t surprised they were such a small home favorite (2.5 points). The Steelers aren’t overpowering, but they do a lot of things right and have an opportunistic defense that takes advantage of mistakes. They will get those opportunities against the Raiders. Take the Steelers on the moneyline (+115).
The Eagles are still the class of the NFC and, while the Buccaneers are 2-0, it’s not the same type of 2-0 as Philly. The Eagles are favored (4.5 points at -115 Eagles, -105 Buccaneers). The Bucs will struggle to keep this game close, because the Eagles can control games from both sides of the ball. Take the Eagles and lay 4.5 points (-110).
The Rams have been a pleasant surprise, and the Bengals have been a disaster. The Over/Under on this game is very low (43.5 points at -110 for both). The Rams have enough offense to do its part. If Joe Burrow plays – even at less than 100 percent – the Bengals definitely do. Take the Over of 43.5 points (-110).
The five best NFL player prop bets to make for the upcoming week.
This week, we have a focus on the AFC South, making three of our five prop bet projections on teams from that division. For our picks, we have three players going Over their projection, a controversial Under projection, and a redemption story player scoring a touchdown.
Note: Odds are provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
