It’s hard to say that Week 4 is critical in the NFL, but there will be significant playoff ramifications for a lot of the top teams.
On this week’s slate of games, five of them pit two teams with winning records (either 3-0 or 2-1). All five of them are division games (Lions-Packers, Dolphins-Bills, Buccaneers-Saints, Ravens-Browns and Commanders-Eagles).
Week 4 won’t even put us 25 percent of the way through the 2023 season, but many will point to those Week 4 games as the game that put one of the teams in the driver’s seat when division titles are won and lost.
Detroit Lions (-120) at Green Bay Packers (+100)
The Lions are a minimal road favorite (1.5 points at -110 for both Lions and Packers). Green Bay made a furious fourth-quarter comeback last week, down 17-0. The Lions made a statement late last year by keeping the Packers out of the playoffs with a win at Lambeau and do it again this season. Take the Lions and lay 1.5 points (-110).
Atlanta Falcons (+135) at Jacksonville Jaguars (-160)
This is a standard home spread for the Jaguars (3 points at -110 for both teams). The Falcons are extremely run-dependent (91 of their 191 offensive snaps are runs). The Jaguars have been a disappointment, but their run defense has been solid. The Falcons aren’t a team built to come from behind and if the Jags get an early lead, Desmond Ridder may make things worse. Take the Jaguars and lay 3 points (-110).
Miami Dolphins (+125) at Buffalo Bills (-120)
Miami has taken big-play offense to the next level this season, which is why the Over/Under is six points higher than any game this week (53.5 at -110 for Over and Under). But, at last check, the Bills have put up 75 points in the last two games. The oddsmakers have to keep a number from being too high that everyone bets Under, but this one isn’t high enough for these two teams. Take Over 53.5 points (-110).
Denver Broncos (-165) at Chicago Bears (+140)
A “For Relatives Only” game, these are the two most brutal teams in the league. The Over/Under is intriguing (46 points at -110 for both), because — while the two defenses have been horrible — their respective offenses have largely sputtered. This smells of a game of field goals, which keeps the score down. Take the Under (-110).
Baltimore Ravens (+125) at Cleveland Browns (-150)
Everyone expects a back-alley fight dominated by the defenses, because this is tied for the lowest Over/Under of the week (40.5 points at -110 for both Over and Under). There have been a couple of those field goal games in the recent past, the Over has hit this number in seven of the last nine games. Let’s make it eight of 10. Take Over 40.5 points (-110).
Cincinnati Bengals (-135) at Tennessee Titans (+115)
The Bengals are a modest favorite (2.5 points at -105 Bengals). Joe Burrow is hobbled, but the Titans have never beaten Cincinnati in the three games he has been their quarterback. That continues. Take the Bengals and lay 2.5 points (-110).
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Los Angeles Rams (+100) at Indianapolis Colts (-120)
This Rams aren’t nearly as gruesome as many thought prior to the season. When Cooper Kupp returns, things could get interesting. The Colts are a one-point favorite. If Anthony Richardson can’t make it through his first two starts without getting knocked out, what is Aaron Donald going to do to him? Take the Rams on the moneyline (+100).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+145) at New Orleans Saints (-175)
The good thing about having an O/U this low (40.5 points at -110 for both) is that it is based on Baker Mayfield and Jameis Winston as the starting quarterbacks. They both take chances. I like my chances with this game hitting the Over. Take the Over (-110).
Washington Commanders (+300) at Philadelphia Eagles (-400)
The Eagles haven’t had the unique matchup beatdown of an opponent yet. They grinded to take down the Patriots. They flashed against the Vikings but didn’t cover. They kept the Bucs at arm’s length. They’re a strong favorite (8.5 points at -110 for both). They need a signature win, and this has all the smells of the new-look “if you can’t stop it, we don’t stop” NFL. Take the Eagles and lay 8.5 points (-110).
Minnesota Vikings (-190) at Carolina Panthers (+155)
I’ve seen enough of the Vikings in one-score games this year. They are relatively significant early road favorites (3.5 points at -110 for both teams) in a battle of 0-3 teams. They should be 2-1, but until they show it, don’t be on board. Expect they will win, but don’t be willing to give four points to a team that hasn’t proved it deserves it. Take the Panthers plus 3 points (-110).
Pittsburgh Steelers (-150) at Houston Texans (+125)
Both teams have been somewhat surprising given their spreads in their first three games. Neither offense has been lighting things up, which explains why the Over/Under is so low (42 points at -110 for both). Both teams have struggled to run, but both offenses are built to run. This week, they do. Take Under 42 points (-110).
Las Vegas Raiders (+200) at Los Angeles Chargers (-250)
The Chargers have the worst head coach in the NFL, which can be challenging for players. They were lucky last week and are overinflated favorites (5.5 points at -110 for both). But, the Raiders are trainwreck and imploding from within. Take the lesser of two evils. Take the Chargers and lay 5.5 points (-110).
New England Patriots (+240) at Dallas Cowboys (-300)
This is all about the Over/Under (43 points at -110 for both). The Cowboys offense hasn’t clicked yet with any consistency – even when they’re winning. The Patriots offense is modest, at best. Both teams have defenses better than the offenses they’re up against. Take the Under (-110).
Arizona Cardinals (+625) at San Francisco 49ers (-1000)
Typically, there is a comma in 1,000. For some reason there isn’t in sports gambling. It’s probably because it is so rare when it’s needed. The 49ers are a mammoth home favorite (14 points at -110 for both teams). The Cardinals beating Dallas was a cute story. This will be an ugly story. Take the 49ers and lay 14 points (-110).
Kansas City Chiefs (-450) at New York Jets (+350)
The Chiefs are back in prime time and heavy road favorites (9.5 points at -110 for both teams). The Jets are a dumpster fire that came into the season with high hopes and are like a wobbly boxer ready to absorb the kill shot. The Chiefs can provide that. Take the Chiefs and lay 9.5 points (-110).
Seattle Seahawks (-110) at New York Giants (-110)
The Giants are a one-point favorite, because enough G-Men fans will bet on them to pull this one out. But, the fact is the Giants have given up 98 points in three games, aren’t built to be a come-from-behind team, and Seattle can do a lot of damage in their own right offensively. Take the Seahawks on the moneyline (-110).