NFL player prop bets – Page 8 – Syndication Server

NFL Player Prop Bet Payday: Week 3

A five-pack of NFL player prop bets for Week 3.

We’re starting to get a feel for how teams are shaking out in the 2021 edition of the NFL. Injuries at key positions and early success or failure are making prop bets a proposition that gets more qualified over time.

These are five prop bets that you can take to the pay window with confidence, because they make too much sense.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook (updated Friday, Sept. 24, at 10:30 p.m. ET) … If you’re in CO or NJ, place all of your legal, online sports wagers with Tipico Sportsbook.

There’s Something About Terry

There aren’t a lot of people who think the Washington Football Team Without a Name is going to slap down the Buffalo Bills in their house. When it comes to a bet on wide receiver Terry McLaurin, those setting the odds know what they’re doing. Washington is likely to be behind in for much, if not all, of this game. His reception Over/Under (5.5 receptions at -164 Over, +125 Under) is begging to bet the Under. Typically, I don’t like giving up that much to win less. That said, Take the Over.

Chief of Staff

There is a belief that the Bucs-Rams game is going to be shootout. As such Matthew Stafford’s passing yardage Over/Under is markedly high (310.5 yards at -114 Over, -114 Under). That’s the kind of number you expect to see from a team winning by 14 or losing by 14. The Rams aren’t in either category against Tampa Bay. This is going to be treated like a playoff game because a rematch is likely in January. Both teams are going to play it tight to the vest, and it should be noted that defensive players get played, too – and the Bucs have enough of them. Take the Under.

In the Nick of Time

Let’s see if we have this right. Jarvis Landry is out. OBJ is a hopeful question mark. And Nick Chubb has a modest rushing number against Chicago at home (73.5 yards at -114 Over, -114 Under). The Browns are going to count on its run game to win, and 20 carries should be the minimum expected from Chubb in this one. The game is done at 3:45, and Chubb has 20-plus carries. Take the Over.

Headley Lamar

The Baltimore Ravens get the Detroit Lions this week and quarterback Lamar Jackson has a fat rushing number (75.5 yards at -114 Over and -114 Under). There are legitimate running backs that have that number. By all accounts, the Ravens should dominate the Lions, who don’t have the pass rushers to force Jackson to bail out of the pocket and do his magic. Against this opponent, he should be able to hand the ball off to others (and throw it) without being expected to be the primary rusher. Take the Under.

Curious George

The Packers defense has had its share of issues getting off the field, especially against offenses trying to move the chains. George Kittle should be expected to catch eight passes. Will that be expected to hit his number (60.5 yards at -115 Over, -112 Under)? I’ll jump on board. Take the Over.

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NFL Player Prop Bet Payday: Week 2

These Week 2 player prop bets are money in the bank!

As we get into Week 2, there is a paranoia among the 16 teams with a 0-1 record. Drop to 0-2 and you have a hole you’re digging out of for a month or more.

The prop bets for this week are based on the belief that the number adjustments on prop bets is being made a little too hastily.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook (updated Friday, Sept. 17, at 10:50 p.m. ET) … If you’re in CO or NJ, place all of your legal, online sports wagers with Tipico Sportsbook.

Ride the Ell Train

In Week 1, the Dallas Cowboys decided they were going to play Tampa Bay’s game and throw 100 times between them. How did that work out? They lost. A week later, the Cowboys are an underdog against the Los Angeles Chargers – a far lesser team. By his standards, Ezekiel Elliott has a shockingly low rushing yardage Over/Under (60.5 yards at -114 for both the Over and Under). Dallas won’t come into this game assuming it has to get into a track meet. The Cowboys will take their time and pick their shots. If Elliott gets more than a dozen carries, he should hit this number. If he gets 20? He blows it out of the water. Take the Over.

It’s the Story of a Man Named Brady

In the opener against the Cowboys, Tom Brady threw 50 times, while his team ran the ball just 13 times with its two-headed running back tandem of Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones. Against the Atlanta Falcons, they should be able to take care of their business to the point that they take their foot off the gas and don’t feel obligated to get into the same kind of pass-happy mindset. Brady has an absurd passing yardage Over/Under (312.5 yards at -144 Over, -114 Under). The Bucs should run the ball 25 or more times in this game, which makes achieving that number very hard to hit, barring an assignment collapse. Take the Under.

Mister Christian (Oh, the time has come)

Christian McCaffrey returned healthy to the Carolina Panthers after an injury-marred 2020 season and did what he does – account for 180 total yards with nearly equal amounts rushing and receiving. Against the New Orleans Saints, he has a modest rushing yardage Over/Under (66.5 yards at -114 for both the Over and Under). Coming off their big win against Green Bay, then Saints are chest-thumping knowing that, historically, they have kept McCaffrey in check in the run game. One big run will get half of this total covered. It’s what he does with the other 15+ that will get the job done. Take the Over.

Ain’t Kissin’ Cousins

One thing Kirk Cousins isn’t adept at is being able to make up for a bogus offensive line and put an offense on his shoulders. His passing yardage Over/Under (268.5 yards at -114 for both the Over and Under) is significant. With an offensive line incapable of holding up in a 7-yard drop situation, his options are to try to Dalvin Cook as long as is practical or complete short slant passes before he gets hit. To hit this number, he either needs to complete 30 passes or be so far behind that the run game isn’t an option. The Vikings should hang around long enough that the panic button doesn’t get hit too early. Take the Under.

My Kupp Runneth Over

It’s always tough to predict yardage Over/Under numbers for Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp. He’s going to get his, it’s only a matter of what he does when he gets the ball in his hands in traffic. However, his reception Over/Under (5.5 receptions at -144 Over, -114 Under) is far less of a gamble. The Indianapolis Colts secondary is weakened and, even if Kupp catches six passes for 40 yards, he still hits the number needed to head to the pay window. Take the Over.

Prop Bet Payday: Week 1

Which NFL player prop bets should you make in Week 1?

The prop bet is the unsung bet for those looking to cash in on specific players instead of whether a team wins or loses. Many times the best bets are taking the Over on an Over/Under with a team you think is going to get hammered. The Over/Under on Justin Herbert as the season went along speaks to how to ride a trend before everyone else notices. For Week 1, we just look at numbers that seem either too high or too low as we wait to see how defenses rise or fall moving forward into the season.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook (updated Friday, Sept. 10, at 11:00 p.m. ET) … If you’re in CO or NJ, place all of your legal, online sports wagers with Tipico Sportsbook.

Candid Kamara

The problem with betting on rushing yards for Alvin Kamara during his career is that he has always had a sidekick who significantly cut into his time – whether Mark Ingram or Latavius Murray. Now he has neither, yet his opening week rushing line has an OVER/UNDER of 59.5 yards (-114 for both the Over and the Under). Without Drew Brees, Michael Thomas or Murray, I wouldn’t be surprised is Kamara gets 30 touches in some form or another. He doesn’t need a lot of rushing attempts to hit that number. Take the Over.

King of the Hill

One of the favorite weekly prop bet players is Tyreek Hill of the Chiefs. He is so over-the-top dominant deep downfield some defensive coordinators will let Travis Kelce catch 10 short passes to prevent one or two bombs to Hill. His Over/Under (82.5 yards at -114 for both the Over and Under) is about where you would expect a Hill line to be. Cleveland is going to try to take the air out of the ball with their run game, but Patrick Mahomes is going to have his deep shots dialed up for Hill, and he may need only two downfield plays to hit this number. Take the Over.

Justin Case

As a rookie, Justin Herbert quietly made those who bet the Over rich because he topped 265 yards 11 of the 15 games he played. His Week 1 Over/Under (260.5 at -114 for both the Over and Under) seems shockingly low. The only reason the “Washington Team to Be Named Eventually” made the playoffs last year was because it quietly had one of the most dominant defenses in the league. Herbert is going to be feeling heat on the snap like he didn’t see as often in his rookie season. He may win the game, but Take the Under.

Let’s Go To the Hop

The Arizona Cardinals are going to be playing in Tennessee on West Coast Body Clock time, which historically isn’t good. The Cards are a trendy pick to be a come-up team this season – all four teams in the NFC West are legitimate playoff contenders – but going into Tennessee at 10 a.m. Arizona time doesn’t sound like a team hitting on all cylinders. DeAndre Hopkins has a legitimate Over/Under (84.5 yards at -114 for both) that will take some doing to meet. But, this is a game that should heavily favor Tennessee to control the tempo and require the Cardinals to throw a lot. If Kyler Murray is going to throw a lot, Hopkins has to be the first look more times than not. Take the Over.

Harris of the Dog

The Pittsburgh Steelers had an embarrassment of riches in the Le’Veon Bell years. He was a three-down back who could hurt you a lot of ways. But, after a bitter divorce a couple of years ago, the Steelers invested a first-round pick – a franchise rarity – to take Najee Harris. The door is wide open for him to be “The Man” from Day 1. He has a modest Over/Under (62.5 yards, -125 Over, -103 Under). On the road at Buffalo is far from a guarantee of ground success, but Harris is going to likely get 15 or more carries, which should easily state his case. Take the Over.