NFL Picks and Predictions – Page 190

Fantasy football: Where to draft Arizona Cardinals TE Zach Ertz

Analyzing Arizona Cardinals TE Zach Ertz’s 2022 fantasy football ADP and where you should target him in your drafts.

For the last several years, the Philadelphia Eagles used tight ends in the passing game as much as any team in the league. The only difference between the Eagles and teams like Kansas City with one dominant tight end was that Philadelphia had two – Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert.

Both of them became impressive offensive weapons, but from the fantasy football perspective, having 2 guys performing 1 role tended to devalue both. When one or the other was injured, the healthy 1 thrived. But when they played together, they were splitting up the production. That changed 6 games into the 2021 season when Ertz was a somewhat surprising trade deadline move when he was sent to the Arizona Cardinals.

Below, we look at Zach Ertz’s 2022 fantasy football average draft position (ADP) and where you should draft him.

Arizona has long been a desert for tight end production. Can you name the last playmaking tight end that made a fantasy impact who played for the Cardinals? The truth is that there hasn’t been a consistent fantasy tight end there in decades, not just a few years. Ertz may change that. In 11 games he played with the Cardinals last season, he caught 56 passes for 574 yards.

Zach Ertz’s ADP: 96.87

(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com; last updated at time of this publishing – ADPs continually change as more drafts occur)

It’s difficult to find a sharper line of demarcation among fantasy tight ends (or any position for that matter) than you see in the landing zone for Ertz. He is low-end TE1 (No. 9 overall at the position) and the distance between tight ends being selected is expansive. The last tight end in front of Ertz is T.J. Hockenson (Detroit Lions) with an ADP at 78.62. After Ertz comes off at 96.87, the next 2 tight ends being drafted are Dawson Knox (Buffalo Bills) at 101.75 and Mike Gesicki (Miami Dolphins) at 113.11.

The division of talent seems clear that from the 8th round into the 12th round, less than 1 tight end per round is coming off draft boards and Ertz’s draft spot is pretty solidly entrenched.

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Zach Ertz’s 2021 stats

Games: 17

Receptions | targets: 74 | 112

Receiving yards: 763

Receiving touchdowns: 5

Where should you draft Ertz?

Ertz is still a work in progress with the Cardinals. When the team was gearing up for the 2021 season, Ertz wasn’t in the plans. It was only when he was available in trade that he was in Arizona’s plans.

A year later and a full offseason for the coaching staff to design more plays that feature tight end mismatches down the seam that fit into Ertz’s strengths, it could be a different landscape in the Cardinals passing game. He has averaged more than 50 yards a game in his career, which, if extrapolated over a full season, would lead to about 85 receptions for 850 yards and a handful of touchdowns – the kind of numbers you expect from a mid- to low-end TE1.

While Hockenson is the better athlete, I wouldn’t be surprised in fantasy drafts if Ertz goes higher simply because he is part of a better offense and a better receiver corps that will leave Ertz in more 1-on-1 situations.

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Fantasy football: Where to draft Arizona Cardinals RB James Conner

Analyzing Arizona Cardinals RB James Conner’s 2022 fantasy football ADP and where you should target him in your drafts.

It seems like every year a player gets on a scoring role that is hard to predict or project. In 2021, that player was Arizona Cardinals running back James Conner. He came to the Cardinals after being left for dead when the Pittsburgh Steelers drafted Najee Harris and had no use for the veteran Conner.

Below, we look at James Conner‘s 2022 fantasy football average draft position (ADP) and where you should draft him.

In his 1st season with the Cardinals, he was expected to be in a battle with Chase Edmonds for playing time and, while Conner had almost twice as many carries, he averaged just 3.7 yards per rush and wasn’t a dangerous breakaway threat. However, he scored a whopping 18 touchdowns in 15 games — a number that will be difficult to replicate.

James Conner’s ADP: 32.00

(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com; last updated at time of this publishing – ADPs continually change as more drafts occur)

Despite his gaudy scoring numbers from 2021 and his ability to finish off drives in close, Conner still has his share of detractors in fantasy circles.

His ADP has his coming off draft boards early in the 4th round in 10-player fantasy leagues as the No. 16 running back, behind Leonard Fournette (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) at 26.82 and Ezekiel Elliott (Dallas Cowboys) at 29.97 and in front of Cam Akers (Los Angeles Rams) at 38.56 and Travis Etienne (Jacksonville Jaguars) at 40.66.

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James Conner’s 2021 stats

Games: 15

Carries | rushing yards: 202 | 752

Rushing touchdowns: 15

Receptions | receiving yards: 37 | 375

Receiving touchdowns: 3

Where should you draft Conner?

There is something to be said for niche players who are designated scorers, which Conner clearly was last season. While it isn’t realistic to expect another season with 18 TDs, Conner has the confidence of the organization.

Edmonds was his primary competition, but the Cardinals made their choice — keeping Conner and allowing Edmonds to leave via free agency and sign with the Miami Dolphins. With Edmonds gone, depth is thin behind Conner, which means if he stays healthy, he will be the featured back in every game.

When you get the point where you’re looking for an RB2 for your roster, somebody who isn’t a time share is the ideal candidate and given the combination of his scoring ability and lack of realistic threats to his playing time, Conner fits that bill. While I’m not a big fan of Conner as a fantasy player, he is in an offense ideally suited for his skill set and capable of getting into scoring position numerous times a game. That typically leads to fantasy success.

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Fantasy football: Where to draft San Francisco 49ers QB Trey Lance

Analyzing San Francisco 49ers QB Trey Lance’s 2022 fantasy football ADP and where you should target him in your drafts.

When a new quarterback comes into the league, especially when its with a team that has legitimate Super Bowl aspirations, the projections of NFL greatness go off the charts. When the San Francisco 49ers made a huge investment to move up to the No. 3 pick in the 2021 draft to select North Dakota State quarterback Trey Lance, those alarms went off that the Niners had a gem who is going to be the franchise quarterback for the next decade.

Below, we look at Trey Lance‘s 2022 fantasy football average draft position (ADP) and where you should draft him.

When Lance was slow to pick up the playbook early as a rookie, veteran quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo never lost his starting job. While Lance played in 6 games as a rookie, just 2 of them were starts. Heading into 2022, while Garoppolo is still on the roster — trade rumors have been just that in recent months — Lance is being anointed as the starter and there is a lot of fantasy buzz around him.

Trey Lance’s ADP: 89.69

(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com; last updated at time of this publishing – ADPs continually change as more drafts occur)

Lance’s current ADP has him as the 12th-ranked fantasy quarterback and there is a clear line between Lance and the 2 quarterbacks in front of him — Dak Prescott (Dallas Cowboys) at 73.78 and Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) at 75.45. Immediately after Lance, QBs start coming off boards quickly, starting with Matthew Stafford (Los Angeles Rams) at 91.52 and Derek Carr (Las Vegas Raiders) at 92.94.

The difference between Lance and those other quarterbacks — especially the 2 behind him in the rankings — is the expectation that Lance will be able to do a lot more damage as a rusher than either of the other 2.

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Trey Lance’s 2021 stats

Games: 6

Passing yards: 603

Completions | attempts: 71 | 41

Passing touchdowns: 5

Interceptions: 2

Carries | rushing yards: 38 | 168

Rushing touchdowns: 1

Where should you draft Lance?

Lance is in an ideal situation. Typically when a quarterback is drafted as high as Lance was, it’s because the team was garbage the year before and needed to make a change in the direction of the franchise. Any 1st-round QB is immediately viewed as the face of the future of a franchise and, after 1 year of learning and sitting, Lance is getting his chance to prove the 49ers War Room right that he was worth the investment made in him.

My biggest problem with this ranking is that the 49ers are a run-1st, run-2nd offense, which requires the quarterback to do a lot of his fantasy scoring with his legs. Very few quarterbacks consistently pile up enough fantasy points running the ball to make up for what those QBs who consistently throw for 250 or more yards and 2-3 TDs on a regular basis are capable of doing.

While I love the idea of Lance in a dynasty league where you can carry over players for a year or more, as to the 2022 season, I don’t see Lance putting up the kind of numbers that would be consistently better than Stafford, Carr or even Kirk Cousins (Minnesota Vikings) on a week-to-week basis.

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Fantasy football: Where to draft Los Angeles Rams RB Cam Akers

Analyzing Los Angeles Rams RB Cam Akers’ 2022 fantasy football ADP and where you should target him in your drafts.

Some players seem to get the benefit of the doubt when it comes to fantasy football owners who envision a huge season and, when it doesn’t happen, still maintain their faith in that player regardless. Los Angeles Rams running back Cam Akers has been one of those players.

Below, we look at Cam Akers‘ 2022 fantasy football average draft position (ADP) and where you should draft him.

When Akers was drafted in the 2nd round of the 2020 draft, he was almost immediately anointed as the Next Big Thing in the post-Todd Gurley offense. It didn’t happen as a rookie when he rushed for just 625 yards, caught just 11 passes and scored 3 touchdowns in 13 games.

It appeared his 2021 season was washed away early on when he suffered a torn Achilles prior to the start of training camp. However, he showed his recuperative powers by returning in Week 18 of the regular season and being the primary back in the playoff run to a Super Bowl title . However, he averaged just 2.6 yards per carry in the postseason (67 carries for 172 yards and no TDs). While Akers Fever isn’t as strong this season, he’s still viewed as a fantasy starter.

Cam Akers’ ADP: 38.56

(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com; last updated at time of this publishing – ADPs continually change as more drafts occur)

Akers finds himself as a late-4th round fantasy draft pick as the 17th-ranked running back. He has yet to really prove himself as a force for fantasy backs, but the love still seems to be there from the Rams coaching staff.

Akers has an ADP at 38.56, which puts him a few picks behind James Conner (Arizona Cardinals) at 32.00 and ahead of Travis Etienne (Jacksonville Jaguars) at 40.66, David Montgomery (Chicago Bears) at 44.07 and Breece Hall (New York Jets) at 46.97. It would appear Akers is viewed as the top unproven NFL back on the board when the draft turns from the 4th to 5th round.

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Cam Akers’ 2021 stats

Games: 1

Carries | rushing yards: 5 | 3

Rushing touchdowns: 0

Receptions | receiving yards: 3 | 10

Receiving touchdowns: 3

Where should you draft Akers?

It’s difficult to get too excited about a player whose first 2 seasons are exemplified more by injury than displaying his physical gifts. To date, he has missed more games (19) than he has played (14) and his yards per carry numbers are frighteningly low.

With little in the way of competition, the Rams intend to make Akers their workhorse back and seem willing to give him 15-20 touches a game. For fantasy owners, that comes as good news. But we’ve heard this same story for 3 years now and Akers has little to show for that organizational confidence.

As it stands, Akers is a late-RB2 that will be counted on by those who draft him to be a regular fantasy starter. Until he can show he can stay on the field, you may not disagree with his ranking, but may be better suited to let him end up on somebody else’s roster.

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Fantasy football: Where to draft Los Angeles Rams WR Allen Robinson

Analyzing Los Angeles Rams WR Allen Robinson’s 2022 fantasy football ADP and where you should target him in your drafts.

Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Allen Robinson is looking to reclaim his career after spending 4 years each with the Jacksonville Jaguars and Chicago Bears. Fantasy owners are all too familiar with the ups and downs of Robinson’s career. In the 4 seasons in which he played in all 16 games, he has topped 1,100 receiving yards in 3 of them (and 883 in the other). But that also tells you he has missed time in the other 4 seasons of his career.

Below, we look at Allen Robinson’s 2022 fantasy football average draft position (ADP) and where you should draft him.

Robinson hit bottom last season with the worst year of his career. But it highlighted the fact that Robinson has never played with an elite quarterback – or even a mid-level QB. Matthew Stafford is by far the best quarterback Robinson will have throwing to him and there is reason to believe that, if Stafford’s elbow is good to go for the season, Robinson could once again be a darling of the fantasy football community.

Allen Robinson’s ADP: 57.17

(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com; last updated at time of this publishing – ADPs continually change as more drafts occur)

Robinson’s landing spot in ADP numbers has him being selected in the 6th round in 10-player drafts. He is far from alone. Between picks 51 and 60, there are 7 wide receivers in that grouping — representing one of the biggest runs on wide receivers in draft scenarios.

Robinson is at the end of this run. His ADP finds him narrowly behind Adam Thielen (Minnesota Vikings) at 54.58 and Brandin Cooks (Houston Texans) at 55.74 and slightly ahead of Michael Thomas (New Orleans Saints) at 59.47.

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Allen Robinson’s 2021 stats

Games: 12

Receptions | targets: 38 | 66

Receiving yards: 410

Receiving touchdowns: 1

Where should you draft Robinson?

Robinson is ranked out as the No. 24 wide receiver, when tends to drop you into the category of elite No. 2 receivers for teams or No. 1 receivers on offenses with some question marks.

It can’t be overstated that Stafford is head and shoulders better than any QB Robinson has played with and, for the 1st time in his career, Robinson is no longer being viewed as a WR1 – Cooper Kupp is clearly that player. I would have him ahead of Cooks and pushing to go past Thielen because the Rams lost a lot of talent at wide receiver when Robert Woods left in free agency and Odell Beckham Jr. shredded his ACL in the Super Bowl.

Somebody has to step in to replace that production and few players have the talent and ability to do that more than Robinson.

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Fantasy football: Where to draft San Francisco 49ers WR Deebo Samuel

Analyzing San Francisco 49ers WR Deebo Samuel’s 2022 fantasy football ADP and where you should target him in your drafts.

It’s rare when you see a transformation of the role a veteran player has in an offense take place at midseason, but that is what happened with San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel midstream in the 2021 season.

The decision was made to make Samuel a much more critical part of the 49ers rushing attack as injuries left San Francisco with a lack of able bodies in the run game transformed Samuel’s role and coincided with the turnaround of fortunes for the 49ers.

Below, we look at Deebo Samuel’s 2022 fantasy football average draft position (ADP) and where you should draft him.

Most wide receivers that have been profiled here don’t include rushing stats, but you have to include that with Samuel because, of the 14 touchdowns he scored in 2021, more of them were rushing TDs (8) than receiving TDs (6)

Deebo Samuel’s ADP: 19.17

(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com; last updated at time of this publishing – ADPs continually change as more drafts occur)

Samuel’s tale of 2 seasons vaulted him up among the elite in fantasy scoring last year and his current ADP has him as the 6th-ranked wide receiver and a late 2nd-round draft pick.

His ADP lands him behind fellow 2nd-round wide receivers Davante Adams (Las Vegas Raiders) at 13.34 and Stefon Diggs (Buffalo Bills) at 15.80 and in front of 3rd-round wide receivers CeeDee Lamb (Dallas Cowboys) at 20.21 and Tyreek Hill (Miami Dolphins) at 24.45.

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Deebo Samuel’s 2021 stats

Games: 16

Receptions | Targets: 77 | 121

Receiving yards:1,405

Receiving touchdowns: 6

Carries | rushing yards: 59 | 365

Rushing touchdowns: 8

Where should you draft Samuel?

Samuel is a unique player that has a fantasy skill set no other wide receiver can boast – although several teams are likely going to try to replicate it because theft of ideas is the sincerest form of flattery in the NFL.

Samuel signed a lucrative contract extension over the summer, so he isn’t going anywhere and his role in the offense will likely remain largely the same.

I would be hard-pressed to push him any higher than he is because Adams and Diggs are likely going to targeted a lot more in the passing game, but his dual role as a receiver and runner – especially with unproven QB Trey Lance taking the reigns of the offense – can’t be understated.

Samuel, who averaged 18.2 yards per reception, may have as large a role in San Francisco’s run-heavy offense as any wide receiver in the league. Given the success the 49ers had when they made the philosophical change in the offense to make Samuel the focus of the weekly game plans, don’t expect anything to change that much. If he ends up on your roster, you’ll need to have faith that he can absorb the pounding runners take on a weekly basis because, for the most part, he is breaking new ground for wide receivers.

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Fantasy football: Where to draft Baltimore Ravens WR Rashod Bateman

Analyzing Baltimore Ravens WR Rashod Bateman’s 2022 fantasy football ADP and where you should target him in your drafts.

Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Rashod Bateman comes into 2022 as the presumptive WR1 after the departure of Marquise “Hollywood” Brown in the offseason. A 1st-round pick in 2021, Bateman will get a fair share, if not the most, of QB Lamar Jackson‘s targets.

Below, we look at Rashod Bateman’s 2022 fantasy football average draft position (ADP) and where you should draft him.

Bateman leads an unimpressive wide receiver corps, but the teams top target TE Mark Andrews is still be on the team and is expected to be a key player in this offense.

Rashod Bateman’s ADP: 79.23

(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com; last updated at time of this publishing – ADPs continually change as more drafts occur)

Bateman’s ADP in redraft leagues puts him in the range of the 7th to 10th round, depending on the size of your league. His ADP puts him 4th among Baltimore Ravens. He sits below Andrews (24.52), Jackson (45.81) and J.K. Dobbins (56.05).

Among wide receivers, Bateman’s ADP ranks 34th at the position, behind the Cleveland Browns’ Amari Cooper (69.44) and the Denver Broncos’ Jerry Jeudy (71.50), and slightly ahead of the New York Jets’ Elijah Moore (92.93) and the Seattle Seahawks’ Tyler Lockett (95.72).

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Rashod Bateman’s 2021 stats

Games: 12

Receptions | targets: 46 | 68

Receiving yards: 515

Receiving touchdowns: 1

Where should you draft Bateman?

Baltimore’s running backs don’t appear to be in a position to carry this offense, especially for the beginning of the season. Dobbins is coming off of an ACL tear and may not start Week 1, or be fully healthy when he finally starts. Backup Gus Edwards is on the PUP list and will be out until Week 5 at the earliest.

With Marquise Brown now in Arizona, there are 146 targets up for grabs and sizeable portion is Bateman’s to lose. Bateman is 1 of the final top WRs on a good team you can draft and at his current position, you should.

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Fantasy football: Where to draft Seattle Seahawks WR DK Metcalf

Analyzing Seattle Seahawks WR DK Metcalf’s 2022 fantasy football ADP and where you should target him in your drafts.

There were victims in the organizational decision of the Seattle Seahawks to trade franchise quarterback Russell Wilson. Likely at the very top of that list is talented wide receiver DK Metcalf, who finds himself in an enviable position despite Seattle starting from scratch with a new offense and journeyman Geno Smith as the starting quarterback.

Below, we look at DK Metcalf‘s 2022 fantasy football average draft position (ADP) and where you should draft him.

Because Metcalf fell into the 2nd round of the 2019 draft, Seattle doesn’t have a 5th-year option on him. After this season, Seattle has only 3 options — sign him to a mega-deal extension, put the franchise tag on him (which became extremely expensive over the last 6 months with so many wide receivers on the move signing for $20 million or more a year) or let him walk in free agency to the highest bidder.

For a player who has never missed a game and has averaged 72 receptions for 1,057 yards and 10 touchdowns in his first 3 seasons, that is a tantalizing prospect.

DK Metcalf’s ADP: 53.57

(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com; last updated at time of this publishing – ADPs continually change as more drafts occur)

If not for the loss of Wilson, Metcalf would likely be a top-10 pick among wide receivers and a clear WR1 on somebody’s draft board because he is just that gifted with his combination of size, strength and incredible speed. However, with Wilson gone, Metcalf’s stock has dropped to the point that not only is he part of the wide receiver run in the 6th round of 10-player league drafts, he is the 21st-ranked player at his position, which makes him a WR3.

He finds himself sandwiched in the middle of the blitz on wide receivers in his ADP area. He’s behind Courtland Sutton (Denver Broncos) at 50.67 and Amon-Ra St. Brown (Detroit Lions) at 51.55 and in front of Adam Thielen (Minnesota Vikings) at 54.58 and Brandin Cooks (Houston Texans) at 55.74.

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DK Metcalf’s 2021 stats

Games: 17

Receptions | targets: 75 | 129

Receiving yards: 967

Receiving touchdowns: 12

Where should you draft Metcalf?

I may have a different take than most on Metcalf’s value. While I would love to land him as a WR3, those who take him may not be doing so to see him go sleepless in Seattle.

Because the Seahawks have no hammer to hold over his head like they do with the 5th-year option on 1st round picks, I could easily see a team at the trade deadline making a serious offer — a 1st-round pick with a lower pick or 2 thrown in — to get Metcalf to come to a contender. I don’t see Seattle paying the kind of money needed to keep him if the offense is going to sputter with a dogs like Smith or Drew Lock at the helm of the ship.

I can definitely envision a contender trading for Metcalf, seeing the value in signing him to a long-term deal — Green Bay and Kansas City come immediately to mind — to land a player who has 158 receptions for 2,270 yards and 22 touchdowns in the last 2 seasons. He is young, durable and insanely talented and can be a foundational piece in an offense.

His current draft value is in the right neighborhood, but, if you already have 2 wide receivers to ride it out until the trade deadline, grab Metcalf ASAP when he would be your WR3 and figure out later which of the 2 guys in front of him on your roster gets benched.

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Where to draft San Francisco 49ers TE George Kittle

Analyzing San Francisco 49ers TE George Kittle’s 2022 fantasy football ADP and where you should target him in your drafts.

There is an acknowledged Big 5 among NFL tight ends and San Francisco 49ers TE George Kittle is near the back end of that cluster. He is a priority player whose current ranking has him being taken on the cusp of the 5th and 6th round – and after he’s off the board, according to ADP numbers, there is only one tight end taken in the next 26 picks.

Below, we look at George Kittle‘s 2022 fantasy football average draft position (ADP) and where you should draft him.

Kittle has more than 70 receptions in 3 of the last 4 seasons and in the one year he didn’t, he was on pace for a career year — 96 receptions for 1,268 yards — before being sidelined by injury and playing just 8 games. He has been as key a receiving weapon as the 49ers have and he has been capable of stringing together the type of production needed in tight end-mandatory leagues.

George Kittle’s ADP: 50.71

(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com; last updated at time of this publishing – ADPs continually change as more drafts occur)

The Big 5 consists of those rare tight ends that come off draft boards when the rest of those in a fantasy draft are skeletonizing the running back and wide receiver depth charts, those who choose to take a tight end do so with the knowledge that they have to make up for that by going after the ignored RB and WR positions heavily in the subsequent rounds.

Kittle is the 4th of the Big 5 currently coming off draft boards. Travis Kelce (Kansas City Chiefs) is deserving of his absurdly high (for a tight end) ADP at 16.63. Mark Andrews (Baltimore Ravens) is next at 25.10. Kyle Pitts (Atlanta Falcons) comes in 3rd at 36.55. After that, it’s a dogfight between Kittle and Darren Waller (Las Vegas Raiders) at 50.71. The drought hits after that with only Dalton Schultz (Dallas Cowboys) at 64.76 being taken in the next 26 ADP picks.

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George Kittle’s 2021 stats

Games: 14

Receptions | targets: 71 | 94

Receiving yards: 910

Receiving touchdowns: 6

Where should you draft Kittle?

The bottom line is that, with all his talent, Kittle is near the bottom of the Big Boy list because he doesn’t score touchdowns with any regularity. He has never scored more than 6 touchdowns in a season and has 20 career touchdowns in 67 games.

Also factored in is that those who draft Kittle do so with the expectation he is going to miss games because he tends to get injured trying to extend plays rather than going down easy and seeing the chains move. He last played 16 games in a season in 2018.

With the move to Trey Lance at quarterback there is some uncertainty as to how he and Kittle will click, but never forget that the tight end is a young quarterback’s best friend because he translates into completions in soft spots of the coverage.

Having Kittle is like having Mark McGwire in a home run competition when injuries meant he would miss 25 percent of the season. When he was in your lineup, he produced. When he wasn’t you need to have a No. 2 ready to go. Those who draft Kittle are in the Big 5, but they will need to make sure to be the first of that group to lock down a TE2 – a double investment in a position ignored by half of the owners in a fantasy league.

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Fantasy football: Where to draft Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray

Analyzing Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray’s 2022 fantasy football ADP and where you should target him in your drafts.

The word has been that Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray is going to elevate his game to the level of the elite quarterbacks for the last 3 years. He’s being paid that way now but has yet to provide the consistent fantasy numbers required to be anointed into that category.

Below, we look at Kyler Murray‘s 2022 fantasy football average draft position (ADP) and where you should draft him.

Murray flashed the signs of greatness in 2020 when he accounted for 37 touchdowns (26 passing, 11 rushing) and made a lot of noise by rushing for 819 yards. He missed 3 games last season and his numbers for both total touchdowns (29) and rushing yards (423) took a significant hit.

Kyler Murray’s ADP: 54.41

(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com; last updated at the time of publishing – ADPs continually change as more drafts occur)

It’s hard to argue Murray’s ADP because it isn’t often that an offense is built around a quarterback from the day he arrived at a franchise, but that is exactly what the Cardinals did when they installed Kliff Kingsbury’s offense that was a glove fit for what Murray ran in college.

His ADP ranking has him settled in as the No. 5 quarterback, trailing Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens) at 45.28 and ahead of Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals) at 57.97 and Jalen Hurts (Philadelphia Eagles) at 60.39.

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Kyler Murray’s 2021 stats

Games: 14

Passing yards: 3,787

Completions | attempts: 333 | 481

Passing touchdowns: 24

Interceptions: 10

Carries | rushing yards: 88 | 423

Rushing touchdowns: 5

Where should you draft Murray?

Murray has about as many weapons as any quarterback in the league and the offense is continually adding component pieces to the mix. While I might lean a little toward Burrow to supplant him at No. 5, the placement of Murray here seems logical.

The more significant issue I have with undersized rushing quarterbacks is their potential for injury. If last year was any indication, despite Murray making a name for himself as a runner, the Cardinals’ offense is designed more around keeping him in the pocket and doing damage with his arm more than his legs.

We’ve seen the same happen with a player like Jackson, who became a fantasy star because he ran for 1,000 yards and a season and mixed in enough passing production to make him a star. However, the production is marginal when the rushing numbers aren’t there in a given week.

I would have Murray ranked slightly lower than he is, which likely means when he does come off draft boards it will either be to someone else or he will come to your roster as more of a bargain a round or so after his ADP number would indicate.