The 2021 March Madness NCAA Tournament is back, and the field of 64 tips off Friday afternoon in Indiana. Below, we analyze three Round 1 upsets to target on the odds and lines, with March Madness picks and predictions.
It won’t be the same as previous years, but it’s better than the alternative like we saw last year when the tournament was canceled.
Part of the allure for bettors and casual fans alike is the potential for upsets. While I personally do not fill out brackets, I love to bet the games and I’m always looking to mine those money-line gems.
Let’s start small.
3 March Madness Round 1 upsets to bet
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 10:05 p.m. ET.
11 Utah State (+155) vs. 6 Texas Tech (Friday at 1:45 p.m. ET)
The Aggies racked up 20 victories this season and they head into the NCAA Tournament with six wins over their past seven outings. They came up just short in a 68-57 loss to San Diego State in the Mountain West Conference Final, but they’re a dangerous team with two wins this season against the Aztecs, a fellow MWC team in the NCAA Tournament.
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What makes the Aggies special is their defense. They allowed just 62.9 points per game to rank 24th in the nation, and they were 18th in defensive field-goal percentage at 39.6. If they have an Achilles’ heel, it’s their inability to prevent the 3-pointer, giving up triples at a 34.4% clip to rank 233rd in the country.
Texas Tech wasn’t a good team from behind the arc, so Utah State won’t need to worry too much about that part of the game from the Red Raiders.
Texas Tech was the national runner-up in 2019, falling in overtime in Minneapolis in the last NCAA Tournament game played as Virginia cut down the nets. This version of the team struggles from the floor and is not a good free-throw shooting team. That makes the Aggies a rather attractive play straight up.
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13 Liberty (+280) vs. 4 Oklahoma State (Friday at 6:25 p.m. ET)
It has been a great year for Liberty athletics. The football team enjoyed its first-ever national ranking at one point, and the basketball team is dancing. It could get even better.
The Flames ranked ninth with a 3-point percentage of 38.8 to tie fellow NCAA Tournament combatant Oral Roberts in that department. Liberty enters on a 12-game win streak starting Jan. 16 at Stetson. Liberty picked up victories on a neutral floor against Mississippi State and South Carolina this season, so it won’t be fazed by the big stage.
The Cowboys of Oklahoma State were so-so defending the three, allowing 32.2% from behind the arc to rank 94th. If Liberty starts canning shots from long distance and OSU tries to keep up, that could be a problem, too. They ranked just 179th in the nation during the regular season on 3-point shooting, and they were just 71.1% from the free-throw line. It doesn’t bode well for Oklahoma State in a close game.
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14 Colgate (+333) vs. 3 Arkansas (Friday at 12:45 p.m. ET)
Fans “brushing up” on Colgate will discover it shot lights out from behind the 3-point line. OK, no more toothpaste jokes, I promise.
The Raiders were second in the nation with 85.7 PPG, they were 11th in field-goal shooting at 49.8% and they hit 38.4% from behind the 3-point line to rank 17th. They’re also a good free-throw shooting team at 75.2% in case it’s a close one.
Defensively, the Raiders allowed just 67.8 PPG, they were 27th in defensive field-goal percentage and they ranked first in the country in allowing just 26.3% from behind the arc. Not since the days of Adonal Foyle have the Raiders entered the NCAA Tournament with such high expectations, even if they are just a 14-seed.
Arkansas resembles the Nolan Richardson days of “40 Minutes of Hell”, as it can run up and down with the best of them, but they’ll have their work cut out trying to solve a strong Colgate interior defense. If Colgate starts hitting long-distance shots, the Razorbacks could be in for a long afternoon.
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