Two of the Cowboys’ biggest stars are stepping up with efforts aimed at helping the global fight against the coronavirus pandemic.
The coronavirus pandemic is affecting everyone on the planet. The vast majority of the populace is rendered fairly helpless, able to do little more to help the global cause than staying at home, washing their hands, and trying to stop the spread.
A select few are in a position to do more. Two of the Cowboys’ biggest stars are stepping up and using their piece of the celebrity spotlight to make a difference outside their homes. Running back Ezekiel Elliott and edge rusher DeMarcus Lawrence have both increased their efforts to help tackle this common opponent with campaigns shared on social media.
Elliott posted to Instagram on Thursday to announce an initiative to benefit the North Texas Food Bank. Elliott will be releasing new merchandise to fans, with 100% of the proceeds going to help feed locals in need during this uncertain time. It’s a perfect fit for the player whose “Feed Me” in-game pantomime has become a rallying cheer for Cowboys fans. Centre, a Metroplex retail company, will be matching whatever Elliott raises through the sales.
Lawrence took a hands-on approach with a family art project to personally show their appreciation for neighborhood first responders and healthcare workers.
The Law’s came together last night for a DYI project to THANK our essential workers, first responders & health care workers! Thank you @Lowes for inspiring us to #BuildThanks ! I challenge all my followers to do the same w/ items around your home! Share w/ me when you do! 🤘🏿 pic.twitter.com/EdY7M6Isxe
Fans are invited to construct similar messages of gratitude in their front yards, windows, porches and home exteriors so that their local frontline heroes can see and feel the enormous impact they are making in their communities every day.
Timing is everything, and sometimes it’s nothing at all. After adding Dak Prescott’s sizable one-year cap hit in the form of the franchise tag, and then inking Amari Cooper to a nine-figure deal, one might think the Dallas Cowboys were low on cap …
Timing is everything, and sometimes it’s nothing at all. After adding Dak Prescott’s sizable one-year cap hit in the form of the franchise tag, and then inking Amari Cooper to a nine-figure deal, one might think the Dallas Cowboys were low on cap space.
When word came down the club had restructured the deals of La’el Collins and Ezekiel Elliott, both just signed last year, all of the comments about having to do that in order to make the moves announced earlier ran rampant. They couldn’t be the furthest things from the truth.
Let's clear something up…
The Cowboys still had $40M in space after tagging Dak. Coop's 1st-year cap hit will be under $10M, possibly well under.
Neither player was set to make a boatload of money in base salary in 2020, with each being under $7 million after receiving hefty sums in Year 1 of their deals.
Sure enough, the details came down from ESPN’s Todd Archer; there wasn’t much savings reaped. In fact, they didn’t save any cap space with Elliott’s restructure at all.
The Cowboys restructured the contracts of Ezekiel Elliott and La’el Collins, but gained cap room only from the Collins’ move, opening up $4 million in space by turning $5 million of his 2020 base salary into signing bonus. https://t.co/zjt9qaAX3p
Elliott’s restructure could have something to do with the way his future guarantees are set, an agreement made when the contract was signed, or something completely different. Elliott signed a six-year extension for $90 million total last offseason. Collins signed a five-year deal for $50 million total.
Dallas entered the day with around $72 million in cap space under the $198.2 million salary limit for 2020. The Prescott franchise tag soaked up somewhere between $31.5 million and $33 million. If the club structured Cooper’s five-year deal like many other star contracts, his first-year hit is almost guaranteed to be below $10 million.
That left around $30 million in space, meaning the club is around $34 million in space now if they can’t work out a long-term agreement with Prescott.
The club is said to be pursuing Broncos FA CB Chris Harris as a replacement for Byron Jones, who signed with Miami earlier in the day, and is still trying to bring back DE Robert Quinn.
Mock drafts resume as Combine concludes. Prescott contract talk gets hotter, Byron Jones departing but potential replacement in FA emerges
With the NFL Scouting Combine in the rearview mirror, mock drafts are adjusting to the new information of which prospects athletically project to power in the move up in competition.
While it seems inevitable Prescott is under center for the Dallas Cowboys in 2020, it is still unclear as to who he will be throwing to. A few mock drafts have the Cowboys drafting wide receiver Amari Cooper’s possible replacement. Cooper isn’t the only one potentially departing, as Dallas fans everywhere prepare for life without cornerback Byron Jones. Some say a replacement can be found at the top of the cornerback class in free agency. Mike McCarthy brings some new juice to the Cowboys’ odds of winning the NFC East and even representing the NFC in the 2020 Super Bowl.
This proposed contract for Prescott’s future mega-deal may qualify as malfeasance by his agent. The idea here is for Prescott to sign a 10-year-deal before the cap explodes and he’s left in the dust. With all signs pointing to a general explosion of the salary cap in the next several years, tying Prescott in to prices based on the current market makes little sense.
A brief, if albeit incomplete look at where team’s stand in terms of the salary cap heading into the 2020 off-season.
In many respects, the $77 million and change the Dallas Cowboys have in cap space is a mirage. It’s fool’s gold.
Sure, over $75 million is a lot of wiggle room. But a quick look at the Cowboys who could be about to hit free agency causes that pile of money to shrink—quickly.
Reports already surfacing of the Philadelphia Eagles getting involved and now the Las Vegas Raiders have joined the party.
“Everyone’s talking about Dak and Amari, but Byron Jones ( @Byron31Jump ) was the name I heard the most at the Combine. The line of suitors will be long and don’t be shocked when he gets a huge contract with a new team.” — @PSchragspic.twitter.com/lBDwyEdKtm
McCarthy plans on taking a trip to the Oxnard, California for a day or two to get the feel of where the Cowboys will host training camp for their 2020 season.
The running backs are up today as DallasCowboys.com continues to break down position by position of players who are under contract for 2020 and how they will be utilized in Mike McCarthy’s system.
Back in August of 2017, then with the Green Bay Packers, Mike McCarthy described the three ways that he would categorize NFL players. pic.twitter.com/6e5tEFDGUr
Clarence Hill discusses that the talk has to end and Jerry Jones and the Cowboys have to blink first when it comes to quarterback Dak Prescott’s new contract.
Here’s why the Dallas Cowboys must open their wallet and get Dak Prescott’s deal done https://t.co/8NpA7ybkWK
Looks like the move to primetime was for naught. Negligible gains in viewership calls into the question the results of having some players not run their 40-yard dashes until late into the night.
The Dallas Cowboys defense will look different in 2020. Gil Brandt’s top five all time Cowboys quarterbacks, breaking down the QB position
The NFL is frantically trying to reach labor peace so that all of the owners can focus in building talent for the 2020 season. With the new league year now less than a month away, collective bargaining talks are ongoing to try and work out a deal ahead of the expiration of the current CBA, after the 2020 season. The league is destined to take in gobs of more money, with a new TV deal on the way following 2021, and the legalization of gambling in states all across the country; there are proposals to have sports books located at several stadiums for in-game wagers.
On Wednesday, word came out there are likely to be two additional money-making provisions that will alter the NFL landscape. There is talk that the league, with the NFLPA needing to sign off, will add not just a 17th regular season game (taking away one preseason contest), but also add a seventh playoff team in each conference.
NFL playoff structure is about to be changed. Under the current CBA proposal, seven teams from each conference will make the playoffs, with only bye per conference, sources tell ESPN. It would go into effect this upcoming season. More coming on https://t.co/rDZaVFhcDQ.
The sports world, for some reason, broke out in disgust and panic about the change, as if there hasn’t been many changes to the playoff structure as the league has evolved over the decades.
Up until 1978, NFL had 3 division winners & 1 wild-card team. Added 2nd WC that season, 3 teams had byes.
1990 season, added 3rd WC team, top 2 seeds had byes.
Realignment in 2002 to 4 divisions, 2 WC teams, 2 byes.
In 1978 (h/t @FrankieKen28), 10 of 28 teams made the playoffs (35.7%). In 1990, 12 of 28 teams made it (42.9%). In 2002, 12 of 32 teams were in the dance (37.5%) and now in 2020, 14 of 32 teams will reach the postseason (43.8%). Did any Cowboys fans have a problem with the playoff legitimacy of the 1990s?
A discussion of everything that’s on the table with the new CBA begins our link roundup.
Mike Jones outlines all of the things already agreed upon (17th game, 7th playoff spot, increase in player’s percentage of revenue), and all of the things left to work out (mimimum salaries, less practice, funding rule that is big roadblock to fully guaranteed contracts).
Todd Archer makes the case for keeping most of the big-name bubble guys in these units, including Byron Jones, Robert Quinn, Sean Lee, Jeff Heath, and Kai Forbath… but not Michael Bennett.
Following the lead of Raiders Wire’s Marcus Mosher, ItS ponders if Quinn might look to reunite with the defensive coordinator who helped spark his 11.5-sack 2019 campaign with the Cowboys.
This deep dive into the team’s receiving corps takes a look at who’s locked up, who’s entering free agency, who’s out there on the market, who’s available in the draft… and how Dez Bryant adds a major X factor to the whole thing.
Ezekiel Elliott joins Derrick Henry and Mark Ingram in this video that explores the favorite get-off-me move of running backs, including the nuts and bolts of delivering the blow, the sweet spot for its effective placement, and which of their past stiff-arms stands out as most memorable.
The outlet breaks out their crystal ball and forecasts that the Cowboys will sign Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper to cha-chingworthy new deals, bring in defensive tackle Mike Daniels for a reunion with Mike McCarthy, and let Byron Jones go… to Las Vegas.
In a crazy story that surfaced all over social media today, Pro Football Talk with the help of Amari Cooper himself clear up any rumors of a possible shooting.
Dallas Cowboys Hall of Fame running back Emmitt Smith gives opinion on Dak Prescott contract situation. Suggests taking team friendly deal
There seems to be a new opinion surfacing daily as to what Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott should do when it comes to his next contract. These opinions range from credible members of the Dallas media all the way to diehard Cowboys fans across all social media platforms. Now the NFL’s all-time leading rusher and Dallas Cowboys Hall of Fame running back Emmitt Smith gave his thoughts on the Prescott contract situation on The Lefkoe Showand it seems to have caused a stir.
“Dak has to understand and maybe take another perspective. The perspective may not be all the money that you get. It may be how much of the money you willing to leave on the table. Because the Cowboys is a marketable organization. So if you are the face of the franchise would it not, instead of taking 35, would you take 28? And leave some for Amari and pick up the other 35 through endorsements?” Smith expressed to Adam Lefkoe.
#Cowboys HOF Emmitt Smith on Dak Prescott’s contract situation:
“How much money are you willing to leave on the table? The Cowboys are a marketable organization…
This may come as somewhat of a surprise to Cowboys fans everywhere considering Smith’s history with his very own contract situation with the team in 1993. The Cowboys started off with two straight losses largely in part to Smith holding out for a new contract himself. After that rough start for the team, Smith signed his deal and the Cowboys went on to win the Super Bowl. All was great at that point and each party was happy. However now, when it comes to salaries in the NFL, a lot has changed in the last 27 years.
The idea that a quarterback taking up a large percentage of the salary cap being a detriment to team building was deconstructed recently in an article by Bob Sturm of The Athletic (pay wall).
I did this study inside today's piece – since the last CBA, you have 36 QB situations to have made the final 4. They break out like this:
36% are on rookie deals 31% are on Top 10 QB deals 16% are on QBs on inexpensive vet deals 16% are Tom Brady on inexpensive deal. pic.twitter.com/HveLvfqgxe
Smith was a strong advocate for running back Ezekiel Elliott to get his big pay day just last summer.
“If he doesn’t do it now when the league it talking about devaluing the running back position and he’s proven he can carry the ball 350 plus times on a consistent basis, there aren’t many backs in the National Football League that can do that,” Smith said. “We have one on our team and there’s another one up in New York (Saquon Barkley) and you’d be hard-pressed to find someone else. When you have those caliber of backs on your squad, they’re unique individuals … He deserves to be paid like that.”
Within the same year, Smith has gone on record from supporting Elliott in getting the highest of contracts possible to now saying the franchise quarterback should be taking a “team friendly” deal. Some could wonder if he has a bias for running backs.
In any event, the March 10 franchise tag deadline is rapidly approaching and if the Cowboys want to get a long term deal signed with their franchise QB, then one of the two sides will have to budge just a little. Smith clearly suggests it should be Prescott.
The Dallas Cowboys will have plenty of decisions to make in free agency in 2020. Jason Witten’s future still undecided. Early 2020 MVP Odds
In just over a month, America’s Team will be faced with plenty of big decisions in pursuit of their sixth Super Bowl. The decisions are and will be polarizing but pivotal to success in 2020.
If defense wins championships, the Dallas Cowboys may have to brace themselves to enter 2020 without one of their key members of the secondary. NFL.com ranks the 2019 rookie groups in the NFC East. Legends Tony Dorsett and Emmitt Smith weigh in on the big decision Jason Witten will face. Everyone knows that you need plenty of salary cap space to make significant moves in the off-season. Is the team ready to free Blake Jarwin? All this and more in this edition of News and Notes.
The team’s website takes on a position-by-position breakdown of the Dallas roster, including one of 2020’s major question marks. Al Harris, one of the Cowboys’ two new defensive backs coaches, will likely work with cornerbacks and says he is focused on looking for “football players.”
Byron Jones fits that bill, but his future with the club is in doubt. It’s looking increasingly probable that Jones will test the waters of free agency, and while the team would like to retain the Pro Bowler, they probably won’t break the bank to do it. Letting Jones walk might bump cornerback up the priority list come draft day.
The Worldwide Leader asked its NFL Nation reporters to toss out one name from each roster of a player who could benefit from a change of scenery. Maybe it’s a big name in need of a second act, maybe it’s a diamond in the rough who’s lost in the wrong system, maybe it’s in the best financial interest of the team or the player to move on.
For Dallas, it’s lack of production. Todd Archer says wide receiver Tavon Austin simply hasn’t contributed much over two seasons as a Cowboy. With only so many touches on offense to go around, Austin needed to make his mark on special teams. Thus far, he hasn’t. Archer speculates that the team could find someone younger or cheaper (or both) to do so moving forward.
Final grades have been handed out for each 2019 rookie group in the NFL. The Cowboys finished at the bottom of the class in the NFC East.
From the disappointing first year of Trysten Hill, the injuries that kept Connor McGovern and Jalen Jelks off the field entirely, and Mike Jackson and Mike Weber ending up with new clubs, the Cowboys’ 2019 draft class earned a collective C-minus. That mark ranked Dallas well below all their divisional mates.
The lone bright spots? The promise shown by Tony Pollard in a light-duty role and the free agent signing of undrafted offensive lineman Brandon Knight, who was the only Cowboys rookie to start a game last season.
Todd Archer caught up to past legendary Cowboys to see how they felt about leaving the silver and blue after years of historic status. Former Cowboys Hall of Fame running backs Tony Dorsett and Emmitt Smith chimed in on why they left and how they felt after the fact.
“I thought I had more in the tank,” Smith said from Super Bowl LIV during a promotion for Marriott. “I felt like I still was a 1,000- to 1,200-yard back, and I felt like I could continue [to] do that.” Smith and Jerry Jones mutually parted ways after Bill Parcells was brought in and clearly wanted to go in a different direction.
Witten is about to go face to face with a very similar situation in just a few weeks.
There have been a lot of narratives as to what the Cowboys could, should and will do with their near $80 million dollars in cap space in the 2020 off-season.
It’s no secret that Dallas has three players at the top of their “to-do” list in quarterback Dak Prescott, wide receiver Amari Cooper, and corner back Byron Jones. John Williams of Inside the Star breaks down a plethora of moves the Cowboys can make to free up space.
On March 18 the Cowboys will be faced with nearly 25 unrestricted free agents to make decisions about. One player that they won’t have to worry about, contract wise, is tight end Blake Jarwin. However, with the looming decision to be made about Cowboys legendary tight end Jason Witten, it could be time to give Jarwin more of a role.
Rumors abound of well-paid RBs getting marching papers. If you think it’s a cautionary tale about Elliott well, sorry for your loss.
Football fans are going to see a lot of “I told you so” tweets on Thursday. Rotoworld, one of the internet’s best sources for collecting fact-based football rumors about individual players put together two back-to-back snippets signifying a victory for the “RBs don’t matter” contingent of NFL analysis.
The first, claims the Arizona Cardinals are planning on releasing David Johnson. The second is that the Los Angeles Rams are looking to trade Todd Gurley. The original reports both came from ESPN, Josh Weinfuss and Lindsey Thiry, respectively. These men are two of the four running backs which teams chose to ignore the trend against paying lead running backs and gave big-boy contracts to over the last two offseasons. The No. 5 paid back in the league, Davonte Freeman, averages $8.2 million a year on his deal. The top four back average at least $13 million. The others are the New York Jets’ Leveon Bell and of course the Dallas Cowboys’ Ezekiel Elliott who checks in at $15 million per. The running back’s don’t matter community are going to revel in being proven right on Thursday, that the contracts doled out to these two men were foolish based on a myriad of factors.
Running backs wear down. The position is fungible with late-round or undrafted talent. Running the ball is a less efficient method of offense than passing the ball.
All of this is correct. I repeat, all of this is correct.
The natural connecting of dots will lead many to believe this is evidence the Cowboys made the wrong move by giving Elliott the $90 million extension last offseason. In my humble estimation, that couldn’t be the furthest thing from the truth. I think these Gurley and Johnson situations prove how special Elliott is, and that he was the only running back worthy of the investment.
Now, this stance could be proven wrong as early as September 2020. Elliott could theoretically fall off in a way that makes me look foolish for penning this piece, and others, where I looked to justify the Dallas Cowboys investment in Elliott. I’ll be alright if it does; I’ve been on the right side of predictions and proclamations enough that I could withstand a very substantial ding on my record. When Elliott had a down – by his standards – 2018 season, I scoffed at those who said it was proof he wasn’t to be paid and I advocated for the Cowboys giving him a sizable deal.
2019 proved that correct. He needs to have similar seasons through 2021 to fully validate that claim; just two more seasons.
Here’s why.
Elliott vs His Peers
To put it succinctly, while all of the running backs in Elliott’s tax bracket were regarded as among the league’s best when they received their deals, none of them had the consistency of Elliott.
From the moment Elliott stepped in the league, he has been a dominant and dependable force. Day 1.
Look at the careers of Johnson, Gurley and Bell. None of them can say they’ve never had a eyebrow-raising season or had their durability questioned prior to earning their big deals.
Elliott is the only one able to make that claim.
When investing big money in the position of running back, where wear and tear are obvious concerns, these things matter. It’s why the Cowboys were smart not to give out such a deal to DeMarco Murray, the back Elliott replaced in the Cowboys’ pantheon of franchise backs.
(Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images)
Let’s look at Johnson first.
A third-round pick, Johnson was a backup for much of 2015, but had a nice yard-per-carry average of 4.6 in 16 games and five starts and scored six touchdowns. He exploded in a lead role in 2016 for 1,239 yards and a whopping 16 TDs. But in 2017, Johnson dislocated his wrist after just 11 carries and was lost for the season.
The following summer, Arizona gave him his fat deal, three years, $39 million. Off of one season of being a star and one lost season, they gave him the mint.
That’s just stupid regardless of the position.
(Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
Now let’s look at Gurley.
Gurley also entered the league in 2015, but with the fanfare of being the first first-round RB since 2012 and the No. 10 selection to boot.
Many forget now, but Gurley came into the league coming off a late-season ACL tear at the University of Georgia. He missed his first two NFL games out of precaution. Later in the year, he missed a third game due to turf toe. Overall, he turned in a great season, rushing for 1,106 yards and 10 scores.
The following year was a WTF moment, though. Gurley played all 16 games but amassed just 885 yards on a 3.2 ypc average. Sean McVay came in the next year, revolutionized the Rams’ offense and Gurley soared to the tune of 1,305 yards and a league-leading 13 touchdowns on the ground, and hauled in 64 catches for another 788 yards and six scores. A 2,000-yard season earned him the league’s largest RB contract, four years, $57.5 million.
But the Rams paid a player who had a devastating leg injury his final college year, and a season where he didn’t look special, like at all.
Risky.
(Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images)
What about Bell?
A second-round pick in 2013, Bell had a foot problem that forced him to miss the first three games. He then came out with a more-than-solid rookie campaign, starting all 13 games he played and running for 860 yards and eight touchdowns, while catching 45 passes. He came into his own the next season, playing all 16 games and gaining 1,361 yards on the ground and scoring eight times. He may have been a better receiver than running back. He caught a mind-boggling 83 catches, many from in the slot or out wide.
Well on his way to a repeat performance, Bell ripped his MCL in the sixth game of 2015, missing the rest of the season.
In 2016, Bell missed the first three games of the season for drug-test violations. He still had a remarkable season with 1,268 ground yards and 75 receptions. Out of contract, the Steelers placed the franchise tag on Bell. He played, he shined, but the team was still not giving him the contract he was demanding.
Bell sat out the entire 2017 season when Pittsburgh tagged him again. That money was tied up in their salary cap for most of the season, so they learned their lesson and didn’t tag him in 2018, making him a free agent.
The Jets reworded him, despite the multiple injuries, with a four-year, $52.5 million deal in 2019. According to several media reports throughout the year, Bell and Jets head coach Adam Gase did not see eye to eye, at all as he rushed for just 789 yards and three scores over 15 games.
Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports
You know who got his contract without ever having a down year, or ever missing a game due to injury in the five seasons prior? Ezekiel Elliott.
Elliott played all 28 of Ohio State’s games in 2014 and 2015. He’s played in every meaningful game he was eligible for since being drafted by the Cowboys, sitting out the final games for rest in 2016 and 2018 and missing six games due to suspension in 2015.
He led the league in rushing yards in 2016 (1,631) and 2018 (1,434) and led the league in yards-per game the year he dealt with the supension (98.3). He finally became a part of the passing game in 2018 with 77 receptions.
At the time of his deal, the only concern was whether or not he’d have another conduct violation and guess what? Players aren’t paid when suspended. They have to give back the allocated portion of a signing bonus. Financially, missed games due to suspension are wholly different than injury. Teams still pay a player when injured, it’s sunk cost. They get a rebate for suspensions, i.e. no financial risk.
There is literally nothing similar about the circumstances that led to the huge contracts doled out to Elliott, Johnson, Gurley and Bell, except their size and the position.
Elliott’s contract details
Elliott’s deal was a monster, though. The shock value of seeing a running back get a contract for $90 million is awe-inspiring. But if you’ve been reading me at all for the last seven of my 10 years covering the Cowboys, you should know by now that the sticker price is irrelevant for contract.
6 New Years, $90M, 8-yr, $102.9M total
2019 Signing Bonus $7.5M, 2020 Option Bonus $13M
Year
Base Salary
Total Bonus
Cap Hit
2019
$752.137
$1,500,000
$6,339.653 ($4,087,516 from rook deal)
2020
$6.800,000
$4,100,000
$10.9 million
2021
$9,600,000*
$4,100,000
$13.7 million
2022
$9,725,000
$4,100,000
$16.5 million
2023
$10,900,000
$4,100,000
$15 million
2024
$10,000,000
$2,600,000
$12.6 million
2025
$15,400,000
2026
$16,600,000
TOTAL
$82,452,137 $7,552,137 g’teed
$20.5 million
$107,039,653
In reality, Elliott signed a four-year deal. His contract has guarantee triggers that make it impossible to release him until 2023.
This is why earlier in the piece it was mentioned he has just two more seasons to prove the contract was the right move. If he’s still one of the league’s best through 2021, the contract was worth it. No one in their right mind complains about a player’s deal if they fall off in it’s final year, unless they have an axe to grind.
The length of Elliott’s contract is actually a benefit to the Cowboys. Should he not fall off and continue to produce, Dallas has locked in the rights to possibly the last great bell-cow running back in the game.
Being able to depend on Elliott’s contributions is paramount and something the other orgs who have paid up have never been able to say.
Elliott proved in 2019 he was still one of the league’s best backs, posting 1,357 yards (fourth in league) and 12 scores on the ground and hauling in 54 receptions and another two scores.
Most think Elliott wasn’t the best back in 2019, and that’s more than fine. Christian McCaffrey was rightfully the RB darling of the media and basically viewed as the lone back worth accolades according to the analytics community because of his prowess as a pass catcher. In total yards, he was dominant, but we’ll circle back around to his 2019 season in a minute.
Having the biggest contract in the game does not mean said player has to be the best at his position year in, year out. It means that player needs to consistently be among the very best at his position. There’s a stark difference there many fans may not grasp. Football is a sport dependent on many, many things – that’s actually part of the argument against paying running backs, but stay with me.
The Cowboys changed their blocking techniques in 2018, and fired their offensive line coach Paul Alexander midseason. That probably had more to do with Elliott’s down season than anything else. They reverted to what they had done his first two years, he reverted to what he had done his first two years. Easy peezy, lemon squeezy.
Look at the top-5 running backs in terms of total yards around Elliott each of his four seasons in the league. We’ll project Elliott’s totals in 2017 over 15 games.
2018: Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, Christian McCaffrey, Todd Gurley, Joe Mixon
2019: Christian McCaffrey, Ezekiel Elliott, Nick Chubb, Derrick Henry, Leonard Fournette
OK, but as we all know, yardage isn’t the best way to measure a back’s value. Football Outsiders has what I believe is the best standard of measurement, defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR).
“Running backs are ranked according to DYAR, or Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement. This gives the value of the performance on plays where this RB carried/caught the ball compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage.”
2016: Elliott, McCoy, Bell, Mike Gillislee, Jordan Howard
2017: Dion Lewis, Gurley, Alvin Kamara, Hunt, Bell (Elliott 7th despite just 10 games)
2018: Gurley, Henry, Kamara, Marlon Mack, Melvin Gordon (Elliott 9th)
2019: Elliott, McCaffrey, Mark Ingram, Aaron Jones, Kenyon Drake.
The consistency is apparent in both measurements. Elliott has been the best back in the league, twice (including over McCaffrey in 2019 according to DYAR), could easily be projected for a third year (2017) and never finished outside of the top 10. Meanwhile, the cast of backs around him is constantly in flux.
So when the media talks about the bad contract decisions made in regards to Johnson and Gurley over the next several days, they’ll be casting an eye towards Elliott whether out in the open or under their breath.
Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott finds himself with the fifth best odds to capture the 2020 MVP award.
Quarterback Dak Prescott enters the 2020 off-season as a free agent for the first time in his career. The timing couldn’t be better for his wallet with fellow signal callers Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson eligible for contract extensions. It also doesn’t hurt that in the final year of Prescott’s deal, he produced at his highest level yet.
The view that some fans and analysts hold that he is merely a game managing bus driver who isn’t capable of putting an offense on his back may never go away, but odds-makers don’t agree, ranking him fifth in terms of MVP odds.
Early 2020 NFL MVP odds:
Mahomes 4-1 Lamar 6-1 Russell 10-1 Watson 12-1 Dak 16-1 Wentz 16-1 Brees 20-1 Rodgers 20-1 CMC 30-1 Zeke 30-1 Kyler 30-1 Ryan 30-1 Brady 30-1
Also nestled in with a tie for No. 9, along with Christian McCaffrey, Kyler Murray, Matt Ryan and Tom Brady is Dallas running back Ezekiel Elliott.
There’s no arguing the top three on this list.
Mahomes is fresh off a Super Bowl victory and was MVP in 2018, the Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson just took home the hardware and the Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson’s accolades speak for themselves.
But Watson and division rival Carson Wentz being ahead of or tied with Prescott is puzzling. There’s no denying the talent that they possess, of course. Both are highly-drafted quarterbacks who have proven capable of playing like the best in the league for stretches.
But Prescott’s position in comparison with those two is wrong. There’s no doubt Prescott outplayed both of them in 2019. His QBR of 70.2 ranked No. 4 in the league and the raw stats tell a similar story. Here’s a comparison of the 2019 version of Prescott, Wentz and Watson.
There’s an argument to be made that whatever Watson lacked in the passing game in comparison he made up for with his legs. But Prescott ran laps around the field in terms of passing yardage, yards per attempt and and sacks taken. To have him ranked behind Watson and in a deadlock with Wentz is just burying your head in the sand.
For Prescott to climb to the top of quarterback mountain, it would require the same kind of production with a significant bump in touchdowns. It would also mean that Dallas would have to rack up 12 or 13 wins and a first-round bye; the formula for every player to take home the award since 2013.
With all that in mind, it’s not likely that Prescott takes home the MVP honors in 2020, but it’s more likely he does than either his in-state or divisional counterpart do.
As for Elliott, only one running back has taken home the title since Shaun Alexander and LaDanian Tomlinson won back-to-back in 2005 and 2006, Adrian Peterson of the Minnesota Vikings in 2012.
Despite a disappointing season, several Dallas Cowboys are among the best at their respective positions and offer hope for the future.
The Dallas Cowboys need a significant amount of help to make the 2019 postseason. They would have to take care of business in their own season finale and beat the 3-12 Redskins. That’s no gimme; Washington always turns it up in pride games against their hated rivals, and Dallas suddenly has question marks at quarterback, as Dak Prescott is working at less than full speed this week. But the Cowboys also need the Philadelphia Eagles to suffer an upset loss in the Meadowlands at the hands of the 4-11 New York Giants.
According to the New York Times, that exact scenario- the only one that puts the Cowboys in the playoffs- has a 27% chance of playing out. So the odds say that Cowboys fans will be looking for other silver linings to the 2019 campaign come Monday morning. While possible changes to the coaching staff may offer newfound hope for next season and beyond, the brightest spot of the current season might reside in the statistical leaderboards, as a handful of Cowboys playmakers could finish in the top tier of their respective categories.
Dak Prescott
The Cowboys quarterback has never missed a game in almost four full seasons as a pro, but that streak is in doubt, as a sprain of this throwing shoulder is limiting him at practice leading up to Week 17’s game.
With 4,599 passing yards, Prescott currently sits in second place among the league’s passing leaders, behind Tampa Bay’s Jameis Winston. Winston leads the NFL comfortably with 4,908 yards; it would require him sitting out the team’s closer versus Atlanta (or making a very early exit), coupled with a big game from Prescott for Dak to catch him.
The Chargers’ Philip Rivers sits in third place, 265 yards behind Prescott. Jared Goff of the Rams is 280 yards back, and Atlanta’s Matt Ryan is 446 behind Prescott. As long as he plays the full game against Washington, Prescott should maintain his hold on the runner-up slot in the category and finish as the league’s second-most prolific passer for 2019.
It would be Prescott’s highest finish and best yardage output by far. In his rookie year of 2016, the fourth-round draft pick finished 19th with 3,667 yards. The next year, he placed 16th with 3,324 yards. Last season, Prescott came in 15th with 3,885 yards in the air.
Prescott is also within reach of the team’s single-season passing record. With 305 additional air yards, his 2019 would supplant Tony Romo’s 2012 as the best regular season by a Cowboys quarterback in terms of yardage.
Say what you will about the Cowboys’ occasional ineptitude and reversion to bad habits at times this season, but the exponential impact that Kellen Moore’s offense and Jon Kitna’s tutelage have had on Prescott overall is obvious.
Dallas looks to clinch the division this Sunday, and the advanced stats indicate it should happen
The NFC East title could finally be decided this Sunday in Philadelphia. The Dallas Cowboys head into this one as 3-point favorites as of Thursday morning, but my adjusted EPA ranks see them as favored by closer to a touchdown. The big caveat with that prediction is that division games are, quite frankly, just tougher.
In their previous meeting, Dallas rolled the Eagles 37-10 on the back of three rushing touchdowns from three different players (Ezekiel Elliott, Dak Prescott, and Tavon Austin). Dallas is currently coming out of a game in which Elliott ran for two more with fellow running back Tony Pollard adding one of his own as well. There will be plenty of focus this week on the Cowboys rushing attack, and with good reason. But the performance of Pro Bowl snub Dak Prescott is going to play just as important of a role.
Here’s a breakdown of their first meeting in terms of EPA and success rate, courtesy of Ben Baldwin‘s box scores found at airyards.com.
One of the more concerning things about this game was the lack of success on early downs. Early-down offense is generally a better indicator of what an offense is, as third-down play calls are dictated more by the distance to go while all plays are available to a coordinator on early downs. In this game, the Cowboys were saved by a great third down performance by Prescott. Dak dropped back 10 times on third down, with an average distance to go of 9.8 yards, and converted seven of those attempts into first downs.
If the Cowboys want to look better this week, they’ll need to improve their early down performance, because that third down success is tough to repeat. One of the best ways to find success against this Eagles defense in 2019 has been through the air, so Kellen Moore shouldn’t be afraid to air it out on early downs in this one.
Philadelphia ranks fourth against the run, but twentieth against the pass. Their pass rush is fierce, but that secondary is something that every Eagles fan would agree is a glaring weakness. Here’s a snippet of the backend of the Eagles defense getting completely flummoxed by the Miami Dolphins.
Down by 6 with 7:30 remaining, the Eagles secondary cannot get on the same page. Both Darby and McLeod try to call a timeout.
They don't get it. Maddox gets big-boyed by Wilson. First down.
The real question is how well the Cowboys offensive line can hold up against Philadelphia’s front seven. Philadelphia is in the middle of the pack in terms of total sacks this year, but they are sixth in expected sacks and third in ESPN’s pass rush win rate (PRWR). A quick breakdown for those unfamiliar with these terms:
Expected Sacks is a QB-adjusted way of describing how many sacks we’d expect a player or team to have based on their pressure rate, since pressures are more stable for linemen and sacks are largely a quarterback stat. PRWR is how often a lineman can beat his blocker within 2.5 seconds, because after that time frame the ball is usually coming out of the quarterback’s hand.
What this all means is that the Eagles create a ton of pressure on opposing quarterbacks regardless of what their sack totals may say, and this can be seen as yet another indictment of a secondary that can’t cover long enough to allow their linemen to finish the sack.
The Cowboys offense is good enough that this game shouldn’t be very close, but anyone who has spent time watching a Cowboys game this year knows that you can’t count on any win before the clock hits zero.
There are four teams with at least 10 wins and a worse point differential than Dallas. It’s truly astounding, and in my opinion should be cause for confidence going forward. The Cowboys have scored a lot more points than their opponents. That’s a good thing, regardless of record. This one is on the road in Philly, but there is definitely reason to be optimistic that this long battle for the NFC East will finally, mercifully, be over this Sunday.
