College Football Playoff Rankings: Has Fresno State Done Enough To Crack The Top 25?

With Air Force’s loss to Army, the door is open for the Bulldogs to find a path to a New Year’s Six bowl… if the committee likes them.

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College Football Playoff Rankings: Has Fresno State Done Enough To Crack The Top 25?

With Air Force’s loss to Army, the door is open for the Bulldogs to find a path to a New Year’s Six bowl… if the committee likes them.

Contact/Follow @MattK_FS & @MWCwire

Can the ‘Dogs get their due?

Saturday proved to be a pretty good day for the Fresno State Bulldogs. They reclaimed the Milk Can trophy from rival Boise State, watched the Air Force Falcons trip up against Army, and generally saw their overall resume improve across the Mountain West football landscape.

With the next set of College Football Playoff rankings set to drop soon, could Tuesday be even better? Here is how the Mountain West’s two contenders stack up:

Fresno State Bulldogs (8-1)

SP+ rank: 46 | FEI rank (through Week 9): 40 | Sagarin rank: 53 | Strength-of-schedule rank (per Sagarin/Sports Reference): 99/124

Best three wins: vs. UNLV (7-2), at Utah State (4-5), vs. Boise State (4-5)

Best three opponent wins: Purdue over Virginia Tech (4-5) on the road, Arizona State over Washington State (4-5) at home, Boise State over Wyoming (6-3) at home

The case for the Bulldogs: While the schedule had been pretty light overall, the Bulldogs may get a good bit of credit for taking down Boise State, a team whose record may be skewed at least a little by hard luck in close games. Wyoming’s victory over New Mexico on Saturday also softens Fresno State’s one loss a bit, as the Cowboys are now bowl eligible, while wins by Utah State and UNLV only help.

The case against the Bulldogs: It may end up being that Fresno State isn’t getting enough help from their opponents. The three opponents on the Bulldogs’ non-conference schedule — Purdue, Arizona State, and Kent State — have three combined FBS wins between them, exactly the kind of haplessness that could slow the Bulldogs’ ascension into the New Year’s six race.

Air Force Falcons (8-1)

SP+ rank: 39 | FEI rank (through Week 9): 43 | Sagarin rank: 50 | Strength-of-schedule rank (per Sagarin/Sports Reference): 126/125

Best three wins: vs. Wyoming (6-3), at San Jose State (4-5), at Navy (3-5)

Best three opponent wins: Wyoming over Texas Tech (4-5) at home, San Diego State over Ohio (6-3) at home, Colorado State over Boise State (4-5) at home

The case for the Falcons: Air Force did get some bits of good news with regard to the opponents they have beaten. Wyoming is bowl eligible, Utah State moved one step closer to bowl eligibility with a win over San Diego State, and Sam Houston State tallied their first win of the year (albeit against 2-6 FCS Kennesaw State).

The case against the Falcons: Of the teams nominally in the conversation for the Group of 5’s New Year’s Six bowl bid, Air Force’s loss to 3-6 Army is easily the worst one overall. Considering they’d just squeaked in to the initial rankings as it was, we may not seem them there again unless they win out and claim the Mountain West crown.

How do these Mountain West teams stack up against everyone else in the hunt? Read on to learn more.

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College Football Playoff Rankings: Will The Mountain West Land In The First Top 25?

Can Air Force or Fresno State establish a foothold in the race to a New Year’s Six bowl game?

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College Football Playoff Rankings: Will The Mountain West Land In The First Top 25?

Can Air Force or Fresno State establish a foothold in the race to a New Year’s Six bowl game?

Contact/Follow @MattK_FS & @MWCwire

Two teams are in contention. How much respect will they receive?

College football season has reached November’s doorstep and, to this point in the calendar year, the Mountain West has not disappointed.

While the field of expected and surprise contenders thinned over the last couple of weeks, the two teams at the top of the conference standings, the Air Force Falcons and Fresno State Bulldogs, might have done enough to merit an appearance on the season’s first College Football Playoff top 25 rankings, which will be revealed on Tuesday.

Here’s how the two contenders stack up:

Air Force Falcons (8-0)

Oct 28, 2023; Fort Collins, Colorado, USA; Air Force Falcons quarterback Zac Larrier (9) runs with the ball against the Colorado State Rams at Sonny Lubick Field at Canvas Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Michael Madrid-USA TODAY Sports

SP+ rank: 30 | FEI rank (through Week 9): 23 | Sagarin rank: 39 | Strength-of-schedule rank (per Sagarin/Sports Reference): 123/121

Best three wins: vs. Wyoming (5-3), at San Jose State (4-5), at Navy (3-4)

Best three opponent wins: Wyoming over Texas Tech (3-5) at home, San Diego State over Ohio (6-3) at home, Colorado State over Boise State (4-4) at home

The case for the Falcons: The Falcons are one of eight undefeated FBS teams left standing and, more importantly, one of just three 8-0 teams among the Group of 5. They’ve also proven in the last few weeks that they can push back when pushed, rallying to beat Wyoming at home before surviving back-to-back road challenges against rivals Navy and Colorado State.

The case against the Falcons: A soft schedule to date might limit the Falcons’ ceiling to start, as that is the same obstacle that hinders most G5 aspirants in the debut rankings. Among Air Force’s eight victories so far, only 5-3 Wyoming currently has a winning record, though they’ll have the chance to bolster that in November with back-to-back clashes against UNLV and Boise State to close the regular season.

Fresno State Bulldogs (7-1)

Sep 30, 2023; Fresno, California, USA; Fresno State Bulldogs defensive back Camryn Bracha (27) is congratulated by linebacker Levelle Bailey (6) after recording a sack against the Nevada Wolf Pack in the third quarter at Valley Children’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

SP+ rank: 47 | FEI rank (through Week 9): 37 | Sagarin rank: 59 | Strength-of-schedule rank (per Sagarin/Sports Reference): 110/128

Best three wins: vs. UNLV (6-2), at Utah State (3-5), at Purdue (2-6)

Best three opponent wins: Purdue over Virginia Tech (4-4) on the road, Arizona State over Washington State (4-4) at home, UNLV over UTEP (3-6) on the road

The case for the Bulldogs: Fresno State has battled injuries all year long, but Jeff Tedford’s Bulldogs are still in the hunt thanks to an offense that rarely beats itself and an opportunistic defense that is probably the best in the Mountain West outside of Colorado Springs. Like Air Force, they’ve also mostly taken care of the business on the road with three wins away from Valley Children’s Stadium, one of 12 Group of 5 teams with at least three road victories through Week 9.

The case against the Bulldogs: Unlike Air Force, Fresno State lost to Wyoming for their lone blemish to date. Also unlike Air Force, the Bulldogs have won more often than not but haven’t always done so convincingly. While the College Football Playoff committee doesn’t take margin of victory into explicit account, it may be hard to ignore that Fresno State is now 4-1 in games decided by eight or fewer points, part of an overall schedule through which, at present, UNLV is the team’s lone victory over an opponent with a current winning record.

How do these Mountain West teams stack up against everyone else in the hunt? Read on to learn more.

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Utah State at San Jose State: Keys to a Spartans Win, How to Watch, Odds, Prediction

Utah State at San Jose State: Keys to a Spartans Win, How to Watch, Odds, Prediction Both teams looking for crucial second in-conference win on Saturday night Follow @MWCwire Expect a high-scoring game, but who will win? Utah State at San Jose …

Utah State at San Jose State: Keys to a Spartans Win, How to Watch, Odds, Prediction

Both teams looking for crucial second in-conference win on Saturday night

Follow @MWCwire

Expect a high-scoring game, but who will win?

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Utah State at San Jose State: Keys to a Spartans Win, How to Watch, Odds, Prediction

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WEEK 8: Utah State Aggies at San Jose State Spartans

WHERE: CEFCU Stadium, San Jose, California

WHEN: Saturday, October 21, 2023 – 7:00pm EST (4:00pm PST)

TV: The game will be televised live on CBS Sports Network

STREAMING: Fans can sign up to receive a free one-week trial of Fubo, by following this link.

RADIO: ESPN 1100AM & 100.9 FM

SERIES RECORD: This will be the forty-second meeting between San Jose State and Utah State. Both teams currently have an identical record of 20-20-1.

WEBSITES: sjsuspartans.com is the San Jose State University Athletics official website | utahstateaggies.com is the official Utah State Athletics website.

GAME NOTES (PDF): San Jose State | Utah State

ODDS: San Jose State Spartans by -4.0

PARKER FLEMING PROJECTION:

For San Jose State, the Spartans picked up a crucial win last week on the road against New Mexico, 52-24. A lot of things went right in that game, particularly for quarterback Chevan Cordeiro and running back Kairee Robinson, and now there are more winnable contests on the schedule remaining.

San Jose State can quickly turn their attention to the Aggies, with an eye towards continuing to get in the win column. The Aggies are a tough team, but thus far have given up 28 of 32 scores in the red zone when opponents have made it to their 20-yard line.

With both teams looking for another in-conference win, the Spartans and Aggies will be looking to get on a winning path and keeping an outside chance at a bowl game alive. Also of note is that the Aggies will be headed into a bye week after this matchup with the Spartans, with two weeks to prepare for the San Diego State Aztecs on November 4th.

Much of the statistical analysis tends to favor the Aggies, or shows both teams in similarly comparable rankings, but what also needs merit are statistics like strength of schedule. In this case, various resources rank San Jose State’s schedule ranks 50th; Utah State’s is ranked 67th. That difference in schedule should reveal an advantage to the Spartans who have played the stronger schedule thus far, but still offer a favorable expectation for the Spartans to be the stronger team on Saturday night.

HERE IS WHY THE SPARTANS WILL WIN AGAINST THE AGGIES

Coming into this game after a win over New Mexico, the Spartans should be in a positive state of mind and ready to go for this contest. Having lost their last two matchups against the Aggies in recent years, there should also be a measure of revenge for the Spartans, who will be anxious to unleash quarterback Chevan Cordeiro against an Aggies defense currently ranked 103rd in Passing Yards Allowed.

However, before San Jose State gets too excited, both teams have had trouble with their rush defense (each with a game versus rushing powerhouse Air Force already in hand), where the Spartans and Aggies are ranked 127th and 98th in rushing defense respectively. But the Spartans’ Kairee Robinson is coming off an incredible four-touchdown performance versus New Mexico and could very well look to be called on once again.

Will the Spartans look to score through the air or on the ground? There should be opportunities for both teams to score as both scoring defenses rank 112th (San Jose State) and 113th (Utah State).

Prediction

Based on the statistics, expect Chevan Cordeiro to be busy on the ground and through the air against an overwhelmed Aggies defense. Utah State will look to attack the rushing defense of San Jose State, but with the Aggies themselves ranked in the bottom third of passing yards allowed, the yardage should be there for Cordeiro and company in what looks to be a high-scoring affair.

San Jose State 37, Utah State 27[lawrence-auto-related count=1 category=1360 tag=16543673]

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San Jose State at New Mexico: Keys to a Spartans Win, How to Watch, Odds, Prediction

San Jose State at New Mexico: Keys to a Spartans Win, How to Watch, Odds, Prediction Will Strength of Schedule prove the tougher team this Saturday? Follow @MWCwire Both teams looking for first conference win San Jose State at New Mexico: Keys to a …

San Jose State at New Mexico: Keys to a Spartans Win, How to Watch, Odds, Prediction

Will Strength of Schedule prove the tougher team this Saturday?

Follow @MWCwire

Both teams looking for first conference win

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San Jose State at New Mexico: Keys to a Spartans Win, How to Watch, Odds, Prediction

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WEEK 4: San Jose State Spartans at New Mexico Lobos

WHERE: University Stadium, Albuquerque, New Mexico

WHEN: Saturday, October 14, 2023 – 6:00pm EST (3:00pm PST)

TV: The game will be televised live on Mountain West Network

RADIO: ESPN 1100AM & 100.9 FM

SERIES RECORD: This will be the twenty-second meeting between San Jose State and New Mexico. The Spartans have won the three most recent meetings.

WEBSITES: sjsuspartans.com is the San Jose State University Athletics official website | golobos.com is the official New Mexico Athletics website.

GAME NOTES (PDF): San Jose State | New Mexico

ODDS: San Jose State Spartans by -8.0

PARKER FLEMING PROJECTION:

For San Jose State, the Spartans suffered a tough loss on the road at Boise State last week, one where the Broncos put up 28 unanswered, including 21-0 in the second half. If there is any comfort for the Spartans, one could argue the competition takes a step down in class from here, having already played through conference contenders Air Force and Boise State.

Now, San Jose State can quickly turn their attention to the Lobos, with an eye towards getting back in the win column. The Lobos are a tough team, but thus far have given up 17 of 18 scores in the red zone when opponents have made it to their 20-yard line.

With both teams still looking for their first conference win, the Spartans and Lobos will be looking to get back on a winning path and an outside chance at a bowl game alive. Also of note is that the Lobos will be coming off a bye week, with two weeks to prepare for the Spartans.

Much of the statistical analysis tends to favor the Lobos, or shows both teams in similarly comparable rankings, but what also needs merit are statistics like strength of schedule. In this case, various resources rank San Jose State’s schedule ranks 87th; New Mexico’s is ranked 117th. That difference in schedule should reveal an advantage to the Spartans who have played the stronger schedule thus far, but still offer a favorable expectation for the Spartans to be the stronger team on Saturday night.

HERE IS WHY THE SPARTANS WILL WIN AGAINST THE LOBOS

This is a game where one could argue San Jose State is clearly the better team – from quarterback to offensive line to overall squad. Chevan Cordeiro will be the more mobile quarterback, and the team finally gets a game against a possibly inferior foe.

From USC and Oregon State to conference competition, San Jose State has played the tougher non-conference and conference teams, and it is reflected in their 1-5 record. This Spartans team is hungry for a win, and San Jose State should be able to pick one up here, even as a road team.

In his weekly press conference, Spartans Head Coach Brent Brennan described the loss to Boise State as “soul-crushing” and the need for a road win this week. From top to bottom, there seems to be a genuine drive for the Spartans to get the win.

Prediction

Look for big plays on both sides, but San Jose State should be the more explosive team. San Jose State has played the tougher schedule, has better skill players and the team that can outplay its competition. Simply put, the Spartans should be able to get the win against an outclassed Lobos team.

San Jose State 34, New Mexico 30

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Air Force at San Jose State Recap: Falcons Pull Away in Second Half

Air Force at San Jose State Recap: Falcons Pull Away in Second Half Falcons take over in second half to reclaim lead, shut out Spartans in second half for win Contact/Follow @MWCwire Falcons move to 4-0, Spartans fall to 1-4 San Jose State and Air …

[lawrence-auto-related count=1 category=1360 tag=16543673][lawrence-auto-related count=1 category=1360 tag=16543673]Air Force at San Jose State Recap: Falcons Pull Away in Second Half

Falcons take over in second half to reclaim lead, shut out Spartans in second half for win

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Falcons move to 4-0, Spartans fall to 1-4

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San Jose State and Air Force played a competitive, high-scoring first half, as one might expect in a Mountain West Conference game. But the second half would be played under more decisive terms.

The Spartans jumped out to an early 6-0 lead as quarterback Chevan Cordeiro found the end zone on a ten-yard run. The Falcons would try to answer but settled for a field goal after controlling the ball for 7:41 of the first quarter. After a San Jose State punt, Air Force would take the lead on Emmanuel Michel’s first touchdown of the night.

Both teams would exchange leads several times in the second quarter. San Jose State’s Kairee Robinson would get the lead back for the Spartans, but Michel’s second touchdown before halftime would close the lead to 20-17.

With already almost 200 yards at halftime, the Falcons made the third quarter their most dominant yet. The opening second half drive for Air Force lasted 15 plays, went 75 yards, took 8:42 off the clock, and gave the Air Force a 24-20 lead they would not relinquish. Immediately after that drive, the San Jose State offense went three and out and left a depleted Spartans defense to go back on the field to face the Falcons running game. Air Force would continue to control the clock for the rest of the quarter, leaving the Spartans defense on the field for more than fourteen minutes of the third quarter.

The fourth quarter opened with the Falcons finishing their second long drive of the third and allowed them to extend their lead 31-20. At that point, Michel had his third touchdown of the night, and a second touchdown for John Lee Eldridge shortly thereafter extended the Air Force lead to 38-20.

A costly interception by Cordeiro late allowed Air Force one more opportunity for another touchdown, this one by Jet Harris on a two-yard run, bringing the final score to 45-20.

When the game was over, Air Force tallied 400 rushing yards on 73 rushes and 2 passes for 28 yards, compared to 354 total offensive yards for San Jose State. The time of possession was more than 39 minutes for Air Force, a nearly two-to-one advantage for the game.

Keys to the Game:

The Falcons’ third quarter was as decisive as could be and showed how strong they can grind an opponent with such a dedicated rushing attack. The Falcons’ two drives in the quarter ended in touchdowns and left the Spartans’ defense on the field to be dominated.

Conversely, the Spartans’ defense was left on the field for more than fourteen minutes in the third quarter leaving them gassed and looking for a second half relief that would never come. When the Spartans had the ball, and went three plays and out, to put their defense back on the field, the fatigue showed through and left the Air Force offense to continue what it does best.

Final Thoughts:

Air Force looked every bit the part of a dominant run-heavy team and the speed they ran with was at times shocking to see. This Falcons squad could easily be a team to find itself in a conference championship game.

San Jose State, however, looked like they are showing signs of wear and tear after a tough non-conference schedule and facing one of the better teams in the Mountain West to open their conference scheduling. The Spartans have a bye week next week and it could not come at a better time to rest up before continuing with their conference schedule.

Player of the Game:

Emmanuel Michel scored three touchdowns, 148 rushing yards, and paced the Falcons to this win. From start to finish, Michel’s 33 rushing attempts moved the chains, and kept the Falcons offensive drives as potent as advertised.

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The Spartans will have a bye week before heading on the road to Boise State in two weeks. Air Force will face San Diego State next Saturday.

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Cal Poly at San Jose State: Keys to a Spartans Win, How to Watch, Odds, Prediction

The Spartans look to get in the win column against the seemingly revitalized Mustangs. Here’s how to watch and what to watch for.

Cal Poly at San Jose State: Keys to a Spartans Win, How to Watch, Odds, Prediction

Spartans still looking for first win of season

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WEEK 2: Cal Poly Mustangs at San Jose State Spartans

WHERE: CEFCU Stadium, San Jose, California

WHEN: Saturday, September 9, 2023 – 4:00pm EST (1:00pm PST)

TV: NBC Sports Bay Area

STREAMING: Mountain West Network (www.themw.com/watch). Fans can also sign up to receive a free one-week trial of Fubo, by following this link.

RADIO: ESPN 1100AM & 100.9 FM

SERIES RECORD: This will be the second meeting between Cal Poly and San Jose State. The previous meeting was in 2017, where the Spartans won 34-13. (Courtesy of Phil Steele’s 2023 College Football Preview.)

WEBSITES: sjsuspartans.com is the San Jose State University Athletics official website | gopoly.com is the official Cal Poly Athletics website.

GAME NOTES (PDF): Cal Poly | San Jose State

ODDS: N/A

SP+ PROJECTION: San Jose State by 15.3

PARKER FLEMING PROJECTION: N/A

What a difference a week can make.

The Spartans started their 2023 campaign with a tough non-conference schedule, versus two ranked teams, losing to sixth-ranked USC and number 18 Oregon State to start the season. And after Cal Poly a trip to Group of Five standout Toledo will be waiting. The good news from here is the Spartans schedule will get easier, but remains challenging, nonetheless.

The 0-2 Spartans now will host the Cal Poly Mustangs still looking for their first win of the season. Before the Spartans can claim this victory, San Jose State cannot look past the Mustangs this Saturday in San Jose. For a closer look at how San Jose State can get the victory, here are three keys for the Spartans’ game plan:

Keep Cordeiro Mobile

Senior Chevan Cordeiro is arguably as good outside the pocket as he is in it. The second-team All-Mountain West quarterback has shown he can play well against tough opposition, passing for four touchdowns without an interception thus far. The Spartans will need to continue to allow Cordeiro to operate in and out of the pocket, and Cordeiro will need to work within what the Mustangs will give him if the Spartans are to get their first win of the season.

Defensive Improvements

The Spartans were in over their heads against USC and Oregon State but giving up 98 points in two games has to improve if San Jose State is to have a chance to win this Saturday. It is a unit rebuilding after losing a number of starters, but San Jose State will need to rely on every player to keep the score from getting out of hand. If they can stop the Mustangs, or at least get a few more punts out of the Cal Poly offense than they did their previous opponents, that should help a “bend but don’t break” mentality to improve things on Saturday.

Control Time of Possession

It might be somewhat surprising to see that The Spartans were nearly even in time of possession versus Oregon State and controlled the clock in the season opener against USC. Against Cal Poly, the Spartans’ offense would be well advised to control the clock even further, to avoid a defense getting gassed on the field and keep the San Jose offense in control on its home field.

Prediction

After starting the season with a non-conference schedule few would look forward to, the Spartans now face a non-conference team that went 2-9 last season and have not posted a winning record since 2016 (as noted in Phil Steele’s 2023 College Football Preview). Expect San Jose State to look better and put-up points, as Cordeiro and company should be able to operate much more effectively at home on offense and a defense that should be able step up to the challenge.

San Jose State 34, Cal Poly 24

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Mountain West Football: Air Force, Boise State Lead Overall Rise In Final 2023 SP+ Projections

The last update to Bill Connelly’s efficiency metric improves the outlook just about everywhere in the Mountain West this fall.

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Mountain West Football: Air Force, Boise State Lead Overall Rise In Final 2023 SP+ Projections

The last update to Bill Connelly’s efficiency metric improves the outlook just about everywhere in the Mountain West this fall.

Contact/Follow @MattK_FS & @MWCwire

The conference still has some improvements to make.

After revealing the first set of preseason SP+ rankings back in February and an updated iteration in May, ESPN’s Bill Connelly released his final 2023 projections today for the upcoming college football season.

SP+, which measures efficiency on both sides of the ball (success rate, explosiveness, and more) and is adjusted for tempo and quality of opponents, reflects returning production, overall recruiting, and recent history into its ratings. Generally speaking, the last revision seems to bode well for the Mountain West’s overall fortunes.

127. New Mexico — #128 offense, #105 defense (+5 change from May)
120. Hawaii — #111 offense, #116 defense (+4)
114. Colorado State — #126 offense, #78 defense (+4)
113. Utah State — #108 offense, #108 defense (+3)
110. UNLV — #100 offense, #112 defense (-2)
106. Nevada — #113 offense, #90 defense (+7)
94. San Jose State — #94 offense, #94 defense (+3)
90. Wyoming — #119 offense, #62 defense (+2)
80. San Diego State — #102 offense, #53 defense (+5)
70. Air Force — #121 offense, #17 defense (+11)
63. Fresno State — #77 offense, #44 defense (+5)
48. Boise State — #54 offense, #37 defense (+14)

11 of the 12 teams in the Mountain West see an overall improvement in their efficiency outlook for 2023, led by the Falcons and Broncos. Those are the only two teams to feature double-digit jumps, with Boise State putting even more distance between themselves and second-rated Fresno State in the process. As Connelly also notes, the Broncos are also one of just three Group of 5 teams to land in the top 50, alongside Tulane and SMU.

Even teams projected closer to the bottom of the conference standings may have more to which they can look forward, however, as Hawaii, Nevada, and New Mexico each improved between four and seven spots.

The most interesting divergence? UNLV, which happens to be the one Mountain West team with a small dip in their SP+ projection. Though this final outlook sees the Rebels leapfrogged by the rival Wolf Pack, there is still plenty for the Vegas faithful to feel good about with up-and-coming stars like Doug Brumfield and Cameron Oliver looking to lead the program to its first bowl bid since 2013.

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The Best Mountain West Football Teams Ever According To SP+

The SP+ metric provides its updated perspective on the greatest Mountain West football teams of all time.

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The Best Mountain West Football Teams Ever According To SP+

The SP+ metric provides its updated perspective on the greatest Mountain West football teams of all time.

Contact/Follow @MattK_FS & @MWCwire

Who are the real GOATs?

Earlier this morning, ESPN’s Bill Connelly released an article that ranked the greatest teams of each decade according to SP+. From USC and Notre Dame in the 1920s to Nebraska and Miami (FL) in the 1980s to Alabama and Ohio State in the 2010s, there aren’t a ton of surprises among those who dominated each era with superior efficiency, but Connelly also provided a link to all historical SP+ data dating back to 1885.

We were curious, then: Who are the best teams in the history of the Mountain West, according to SP+? Before we give you that answer, here’s a brief rundown of the best iterations of every team during their time in the conference, dating back to 1999:

Air Force — 2019 and 2021 — 35th overall (11-2, 44th offense, 43rd defense in ’19; 10-3, 55th offense, 24th defense in ’21)
Boise State — 2011 — 6th overall (12-1, 7th offense, 21st defense)
Colorado State — 2000 — 34th overall (10-2, 56th offense, 15th defense)
Fresno State — 2018 — 21st overall (12-2, 44th offense, 13th defense)
Hawaii — 2021 — 84th overall (6-7, 83rd offense, 87th defense)
Nevada — 2021 — 52nd overall (8-5, 39th offense, 56th defense)
New Mexico — 2003 — 44th overall (8-5, 69th offense, 29th defense)
San Diego State — 2016 — 39th overall (11-3, 41st offense, 45th defense)
San Jose State — 2020 — 53rd overall (7-1, 79th offense, 31st defense)
UNLV — 2000 — 58th overall (8-5, 74th offense, 48th defense)
Utah State — 2018 — 19th overall (11-2, 12th offense, 42nd defense)
Wyoming — 1999 — 47th overall (7-4, 56th offense, 46th defense)
BYU — 2006 — 16th overall (11-2, 18th offense, 27th defense)
TCU — 2009 — 6th overall (12-1, 19th offense, 11th defense)
Utah — 2004 — 8th overall (12-0, 3rd offense, 45th defense)

As you’d expect, the list above includes some of the most storied teams in the history of the Mountain West but, interestingly, only seven of those above finished those respective seasons as conference champions. It also comes with a handful of surprising wrinkles, such as the revelation that Wyoming’s best Mountain West squad was its first and that Hawaii’s best team by SP+ was not its West division-winning iteration in 2019 but one under Todd Graham two years later.

How does this list compare, however, to the best teams in the entire history of each current Mountain West program?

Air Force — 1985 — 5th overall (12-1 in WAC, 1st offense, 31st defense)
Boise State — 2011 — 6th overall (12-1 in MWC, 7th offense, 21st defense)
Colorado State — 1915 and 1916 — 11th overall (7-0 in Rocky Mountain Conference, 5th offense, 37th defense in ’15; 6-0-1 in RMC, 8th offense, 42nd defense in ’16)
Fresno State — 2018 — 21st overall (12-2 in MWC, 44th offense, 13th defense)
Hawaii — 1981 — 18th overall (9-2 in WAC, 12th offense, 32nd defense)
Nevada — 1948 — 23rd overall (9-2 as independent, 13th offense, 50th defense)
New Mexico — 1964 — 30th overall (9-2 in WAC, 44th offense, 21st defense)
San Diego State — 1969 — 11th overall (11-0 in PCAA, 1st offense, 57th defense)
San Jose State — 1976 — 31st overall (7-4 in PCAA, 18th offense, 73rd defense)
UNLV — 1984 — 40th overall (11-2 in PCAA, 18th offense, 71st defense)
Utah State — 1961 — 8th overall (9-1-1 in Skyline Conference, 5th offense, 26th defense)
Wyoming — 1966 — 5th overall (10-1 in WAC, 2nd offense, 27th defense)

This list draws connections to some of the greatest names associated with their respective programs — Fisher DeBerry, Merlin Olsen, Randall Cunningham, Kellen Moore, and Don Coryell, to name a few — with only a couple of modern-era pinnacles at Boise State and Fresno State. Enough beating around the bush, though: What does SP+ have to say about the best teams in the history of the Mountain West? Here is a list of every team to have finished in the top 40 during their respective seasons:

2009 TCU and 2011 Boise State — 6th overall
2010 TCU — 7th
2004 Utah — 8th
2011 TCU — 10th
2008 Utah — 11th
2008 TCU — 14th
2006 BYU — 16th
2018 Utah State — 19th
1999 Utah and 2018 Fresno State — 21st
2006 TCU — 25th
2008 BYU and 2009 Utah — 26th
2007 BYU — 27th
2005 TCU — 28th
2018 Boise State — 31st
2012 Boise State — 32nd
1999 BYU — 33rd
2000 Colorado State, 2003 Utah, and 2021 Boise State — 34th
2019 Air Force and 2021 Air Force — 35th
1999 Colorado State, 2001 BYU, and 2009 BYU — 36th
2001 Utah and 2010 Utah — 37th
2016 San Diego State and 2020 Boise State — 39th

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Mountain West Football: Wyoming Rises, Nevada Drops In Updated 2023 SP+ Projections

The first update to Bill Connelly’s efficiency metric shuffles the outlook for a number of Mountain West football teams this fall.

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Mountain West Football: Wyoming Rises, Nevada Drops In Updated 2023 SP+ Projections

The first update to Bill Connelly’s efficiency metric shuffles the outlook for a number of Mountain West football teams this fall.

Contact/Follow @MattK_FS & @MWCwire

The conference still has some improvements to make.

After revealing the first set of preseason SP+ rankings back in February, ESPN’s Bill Connelly updated those projections this morning to account for roster updates.

SP+, which measures efficiency on both sides of the ball (success rate, explosiveness, and more) and is adjusted for tempo and quality of opponents, reflects returning production, overall recruiting, and recent history into its ratings. What has changed in the last few months across the Mountain West?

132. New Mexico — #129 offense, #107 defense (no change from February)
124. Hawaii — #114 offense, #119 defense (+7)
118. Colorado State — #127 offense, #77 defense (+1)
116. Utah State — #111 offense, #110 defense (+2)
113. Nevada — #119 offense, #95 defense (-6)
108. UNLV — #98 offense, #109 defense (+1)
97. San Jose State — #97 offense, #93 defense (+6)
92. Wyoming — #121 offense, #62 defense (+9)
85. San Diego State — #110 offense, #56 defense (-5)
81. Air Force — #122 offense, #33 defense (-4)
68. Fresno State — #85 offense, #58 defense (-1)
62. Boise State — #70 offense, #57 defense (+6)

As you can tell, things are still not ideal overall but they are definitely different. At the top of the projections, Boise State leap-frogged defending champion Fresno State thanks to a modestly improved outlook on defense, climbing six spots from 63rd to 57th. The gap between the Broncos and Bulldogs and the next two teams, Air Force and San Diego State, also got a little wider because of slight downgrades to offensive projections for both the Falcons and Aztecs.

The most interesting shakeups are in the middle of the pack. San Jose State enjoyed a bump in its projection at this juncture for the second straight year and Wyoming, after suffering a dip in last year’s first update, made the biggest climb of any team in the Mountain West with a more optimistic projection on defense (68th to 62nd). This may provide a glimpse at the teams SP+ expects to compete for a bowl bid, at the very least.

Farther down the projections, Hawaii got a bit of separation from the FBS cellar with a positive bump on both sides of the ball, an increase of 11 spots on offense and eight on defense. Conversely, Nevada slid behind rival UNLV after plummeting nine spots on offense, suggesting that a quicker resolution to some of last year’s problems, namely at quarterback, will be the key to success.

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Mountain West Football: Who Had The Most Turnover Luck In 2022?

ESPN’s Bill Connelly looked back at fortunes that were shaped by a knack for taking the ball away (or not) in 2022.

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Mountain West Football: Who Had The Most Turnover Luck in 2022?

ESPN’s Bill Connelly looked back at fortunes that were shaped by a knack for taking the ball away (or not) in 2022.

Contact/Follow @MattK_FS & @MWCwire

Some interesting revelations.

After previously measuring how FBS ranked by returning production for 2023 and by initial SP+ projections, ESPN’s Bill Connelly took a closer look at how the 2022 season got shaped by turnover luck.

In particular, Connelly examined fumble luck and the ratio of interceptions to pass breakups, both of which are hard to predict at any given time and could be something to watch with regard to regression candidates, both positive and negative, in the Mountain West. He notes that “a turnover is worth about 4-5 points in terms of field position value”, meaning that it can be a fairly significant influence on the outcome of any single game.

As proof of that point, Connelly’s list of offenses that were impacted most by opponents turning defended passes into interceptions includes Utah State. The Aggies threw 21 interceptions on 398 total pass attempts, a staggering 5.2% rate that also happened to represent a full one-third (33.3%) of passes defended against them, one of eight unfortunate teams to crack 30%. If Cooper Legas can stay healthy and make strides with the starting job in hand next fall, that could make Utah State a positive regression candidate after a disappointing 2022.

How did the conference stack up as a whole?

125. Fresno State: -9.7 turnover luck, -3.1 points per game
121. Colorado State: -7.0 turnover luck, -2.6 points per game
119. Utah State: -7.3 turnover luck, -2.5 points per game
91. Wyoming: -3.1 turnover luck, -1.1 points per game
49. San Diego State: 1.6 turnover luck, +0.6 points per game
43. Boise State: 2.3 turnover luck, +0.7 points per game
41. Hawaii: 2.4 turnover luck, +0.8 points per game
32. Air Force: 3.0 turnover luck, +1.1 points per game
31. UNLV: 2.9 turnover luck, +1.1 points per game
26. Nevada: 3.7 turnover luck, +1.4 points per game
25. New Mexico: 3.8 turnover luck, +1.4 points per game
12. San Jose State: 6.8 turnover luck, +2.5 points per game

There are a few surprising results here. Fresno State won the conference championship despite the worst overall turnover luck in the Mountain West, though adding a little context to that can clarify: The Bulldogs had 13 turnovers in a six-game stretch between losing Jake Haener to injury against USC and rallying to defeat San Diego State, but just one turnover in the other eight contests. His replacement, whether it’s Logan Fife, Jaylen Henderson, or Mikey Keene, will have big shoes to fill to keep the offense from sliding backward on that front.

Another interesting detail is that some of the conference’s worst teams, namely Nevada and New Mexico, had very good fortune with turnovers which could be hard to replicate in 2023 without improvements on offense. Additionally, San Jose State led the conference thanks to the strength of outrageously good interception luck, posting a 9.3 figure which was surpassed in FBS by just USC and Western Kentucky. Chevan Cordeiro’s 2.3% interception rate represented a career-best, but it remains to be seen if he can hold onto that gain while the defense looks to replace impact players like Viliami Fehoko, Cade Hall, and Nehemiah Shelton.

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