NFL Draft 2021: How many Alabama players will end up being drafted in the first round? What are the over/under odds?
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NFL Draft 2021: Alabama
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It’s really, really, really, really hard to get multiple players taken in the first round of an NFL Draft, much less three, or five, or six.
LSU had 14 players drafted last year – one at every non-kicking position including long snapper – and had five selected in the first round.
Ohio State had five players taken in the first round in 2016, and Oklahoma had four selected in the first of the 2010 draft.
The over/under on how many Alabama players would go in the first round last year was 5.5, and four – Tua Tagovailoa, Jedrick Wills, Henry Ruggs and Jerry Jeudy – were selected. It wasn’t all all that close on the over, with Xavier McKinney going with the fourth pick in the second, and the sixth Tide player – Trevon Diggs – not going until the 51st overall pick.
In other words, it’s almost impossible to get past 5.5 going in the first round no matter how good the team was the year before.
Alabama has never had more than four players taken in the first round, much less five, and this year, the oddsmaker types are setting the line at 5.5.
Even for a historically great 2020 Alabama team, good luck with that.
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Just like last year with the four that ended up being taken, Alabama has a few sure things to set a good base.
There’s no question that – in some order – QB Mac Jones, CB Patrick Surtain, WR DeVonta Smith and WR Jaylen Waddle will be selected in the first round. Now, work backwards.
OT Alex Leatherwood should be a relatively early pick, but it’ll take a bit of a shocker for him to go in the first, and the same goes for C Landon Dickerson, LB Dylan Moses and OG Deonte Brown. All of them will go after the top 32.
You still need two more to get past 5.5 Bama players selected.
Just like McKinney was the wild-card last year to get to five, Najee Harris is the one who could get Bama past four.
First, take another moment and realize the historic nature of even thinking this is possible – again, Alabama has never had five players selected in the first round.
Harris could absolutely go on Day One – he’s one of the 32 best players in this thing – but running back is so devalued now in the draft process, and Clemson’s Travis Etienne could be the first and only back off the board.
But let’s say it happens. Let’s say Harris is taken somewhere between the 23 to the Jets to the 32 with Tampa Bay. That’s still five, and you need six to go over, so …
How Many Alabama Players Will Be Drafted In the First Round?
Five.
I’ll call it that Harris makes it five Alabama players going in the first round, but even that’s a bit of a reach. So let’s say I’m right, then it comes down to …
DT Christian Barmore.
I think he’s easily the best defensive tackle in a weak draft for the position, and there’s certainly a chance that someone thinks there’s value in drafting him a wee bit early to take the best one off the board, but if it happens, it’ll come late.
And that’s where the sweating will come in.
Barmore is the exact right guy for Tampa Bay to take at the 32 to add more to the defensive interior, but the defending Super Bowl champion will have an abundance of great prospects to choose from.
So it comes down to this. Do you like Etienne to go before Harris? If so, assume under on the 5.5.
Do you believe in historical anomalies with Bama not only getting to five in the first round, but six?
The value might not be there on the under, but you’re asking for something wild to get the over. If it happens, tip your cap, and marvel in the greatness of the talent on that amazing 2020 team.
Prediction: Under
BetMGM line: 5.5, Over +130, Under -165
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