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What is going to happen between the New Orleans Saints and star running back Alvin Kamara? Kamara is headed for the final year of his rookie contract, having earned a performance-based pay raise that boosts his 2020 base salary to $2.147 million, or a hair shy of $126,300 per game.
While Kamara’s total touchdowns scored dropped in his third season (7 in 15 games, including the playoffs) from his first two years (34 in 35 games), his yards from scrimmage gained per game remained steady at 92.3 (compared to 100.0 in the first two seasons combined). Rumors of his demise have been greatly exaggerated.
It all sets up for difficult contract negotiations between Kamara’s agents and the Saints. He’s now eligible for an extension even though he’s under contract for one more year, and it’s very possible that he chooses to hold out and pressure the Saints into signing him to a new deal. In a survey of the ESPN NFL Nation network, Saints writer Mike Triplett looked to Kamara as the inspiration behind his bold prediction for the 2020 offseason:
Kamara has not announced any plans to do this. But it feels like a no-brainer since he is heading into the final year of a supremely discounted rookie contract (he was a third-round pick). Perhaps the Saints will pay Kamara quickly, like they did with wide receiver Michael Thomas last summer. But agreeing on Kamara’s market value could prove more difficult since there aren’t many perfect comparisons for him and since all NFL teams wrestle with how much to pay their backs.
That point about every NFL team struggling to budget for running backs is prescient — the same bold predictions survey has writers covering the Los Angeles Rams and Arizona Cardinals each suggesting their teams will try to get out of contracts with Todd Gurley and David Johnson. It’s a grueling position to play, with a very uncertain shelf life.
So what is Kamara’s value? If he hadn’t been set back by injuries and received more touches in scoring position last year, he’d probably have grounds for an argument to displace Ezekiel Elliott as the NFL’s highest-paid running back. However, because there was a slight dip in his production and a big drop in scoring plays, the Saints probably won’t be eager to reset the market.
To be fair, some of the differences in 2019 weren’t within Kamara’s control. He was given just 33 combined carries and targets inside the opposing 20-yard line, an average of 2.2 per game, compared to 110 such plays in 2017 and 2018 (which averages out to 3.1 per game). He wasn’t touching the ball in scoring position as often, and also ran a different route tree. How many times did he get matched up one-on-one against a linebacker on a route deep downfield?
And that may suggest something about where the Saints stand on Kamara. If they don’t think he can continue to win on those routes and make those plays, or hold up to the physically-demanding battle in a phone booth when opposing defenses are backed up deep in their own territory, they may not want to tie up significant salary cap resources to him. Maybe Kamara’s future doesn’t lie in the New Orleans.
Or maybe this is all just idle speculation. Kamara hinted at dialogue between his camp and the Saints just last week, saying, “there might be something going on” with contract discussions. Would it really surprise anyone if he sat out a few days of training camp before signing a four-year, $42 million extension?
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