Category: 49ers

Why “four-strong” has become the perfect equation for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are wizards at breaking defenses with four-strong receiver routes. Here’s what the 49ers will deal with.

LAS VEGAS — The Kansas City Chiefs’ offense hasn’t been aligned to its optimal outcome all season long, but one thing that’s worked all the way is their 3×1 receiver alignments. Patrick Mahomes is brilliant at reading defenders put in conflict with the route concepts out of trips and bunch sets. This season, including the playoffs, Mahomes has 28 explosive passes out of 3×1 sets, averaging 31.4 yards per play, and 4.8 yards of separation per play to the intended receiver. No matter the coverage or pressure, the Chiefs create all kinds of havoc in those 3×1 sets.

Those results are further magnified when the call is to send a back or a fourth receiver into the area where the three bunched receivers are. Then, opposing defenses are dealing with Andy Reid’s “four-strong” concepts, and the numbers game rarely, if ever, favors the defense.

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For examples, let’s begin with Mahomes’ 21-yard completion to Travis Kelce with 43 seconds left in the first half of the AFC Championship game against the Baltimore Ravens. This was against Cover-3, with linebacker Roquan Smith dropping from a nose-shade alignment to bump Justin Watson on his post. Cornerback Ronald Darby bailed Marquez Valdes-Scantling outside, and that left Kyle Hamilton as the unfortunate guy to deal with the negative effects of the four-on-three advantage in the Chiefs’ favor. Hamilton’s focus was split between Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s flat route, and Travis Kelce’s corner route. When Hamilton bit on Edwards-Helaire underneath, Mahomes had the easy completion to Kelce up top.

The Chiefs aren’t just about getting to four-strong from one side, through — they can also motion and roll into it in other ways. On this 45-yard pass from Mahomes to receiver Richie James against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 16, James and Travis Kelce ran matching 15-yard in-cuts, Marquez Valdes-Scantling ran a vertical route up the mean, and Rashee Rice worked the shallow cross from left to right. Rice occupied linebacker Robert Spillane and slot defender Nate Hobbs in the Raiders’ Cover-4, while Kelce took cornerback Amik Robertson and safety Trevon Moehrig over the top. With all that clearance, it was James against cornerback Jonathan Jones outside right. Jones was playing bail coverage to the boundary, and he kept going vertical when James cut inside, and he had a cow pasture of open field after the catch.

This is a great way to work into a Dagger concept against two-deep coverage.

This 27-yard pass to Justin Watson against the Denver Broncos in Week 8 was four-strong with yet another different flavor — and another way to defeat two-deep coverage. Here, the Chiefs were in a 3×1 set with Watson motioning to trips right. That motion put Denver’s Cover-2 coverage in a problem spot, with Watson getting wiiiiiiide open on the corner route. Cornerback Damarri Mathis probably would have preferred that Watson stay outside. Mahomes could have also hit Jerick McKinnon on the release route from the backfield for a big gain.

It’s really tough to beat four-strong, but 49ers defensive coordinator Steve Wilks is aware of the challenge, and he has a few ideas. For one thing, you can sit in zones and wait for Mahomes to pick you apart by reading the defender in conflict as he did with Kyle Hamilton. That’s one example of those ad-lib routes Kelce and Mahomes do so well because their communication is just about psychic at this point. Then, as Wilks said last week, you’ve got to keep your guys on their guys.

“We still have to have a great plan. We’ve still got to execute and finish. When they start to ad-lib we’ve got to do a great job of really plastering the man within our zone and really straining to make sure we finish the rep.”

Easier in theory than in practice, and don’t be surprised if, in the most important game of the year, Andy Reid busts out four-strong in more ways than one.

How Steve Wilks’ 49ers defense can put a lid on Patrick Mahomes

If the 49ers are going to put a lid on Patrick Mahomes in Super Bowl LVIII, defensive coordinator Steve Wilks will have to open his entire playbook.

The Kansas City Chiefs are back in the Super Bowl — for the fourth time in the last five seasons — and Patrick Mahomes is getting hot at exactly the right time. Mahomes’ 2023 regular season, affected as it was by some iffy receivers and a questionable playbook at times, was underwhelming. But in his two playoff games, Mahomes has completed 47 of 62 passes (75.8% completion rate) for 456 yards (7.4 yards per attempt), three touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 112.0.

If the San Francisco 49ers are to avenge their 31-20 loss to the Chiefs in  Super Bowl LIV four years ago, they’ll have to do as much as possible to contain Mahomes both as a passer and as a second-reaction runner. Defensive coordinator Steve Wilks is well aware.

“Well, it is definitely a challenge,” Wilks said Friday of the Mahomes Factor.  “Not only him, you look at [Travis] Kelce, you talk about two first-ballot Hall of Famers there. We definitely have to prepare and be ready. It’s different things that we have to do. Number one, he’s doing a tremendous job, really extended plays. We talked all week. It’s two plays within one down. When the ball snaps and then once he starts to scramble. So he’s phenomenal. The best I’ve ever seen for just buying time, winning with his feet, and getting the ball where it needs to go down the field.

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“They do ad-lib and they do a great job of it. But we still have to have a great plan. We’ve still got to execute and finish. When they start to ad-lib we’ve got to do a great job of really plastering the man within our zone and really straining to make sure we finish the rep.”

Putting a lid on Patrick Mahomes when he’s on is one of the toughest things to do in sports, but the 49ers under Wilks do have some concepts that they execute very well, which could get them started down the right path. Some are obvious, and some seem quite counterintuitive, but here’s what the 49ers have done this season, and what Mahomes would prefer they not do, that could make a serious difference in Super Bowl LVIII.

Embassy of Japan is confident that Taylor Swift can attend Super Bowl LVIII after tour date

The Embassy of Japan gave Taylor Swift fans some reassurance regarding Swift’s ability to attend Super Bowl LVIII to see Travis Kelce in action.

Forget the matchups in Super Bowl LVIII between the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers — the real question everybody wants answered is whether Taylor Swift will be at the big game in Las Vegas.

There is some drama here, as Swift’s “New Eras” tour closes its Japanese run at the Tokyo Dome on Saturday, February 10. The show starts at 6:00 p.m. Tokyo time, and if Swift’s show ends at 10:00 or 11:00 Tokyo time, it’ll be a tight fit to get her to the game on time to see her guy Travis Kelce.

Of course, Swift can avail herself of any transportation scenario, and she’ll be 14 hours ahead of Eastern Standard Time (Las Vegas is in the Pacific Time Zone), so that’s a break. The game kicks off at 6:30 p.m. EST on Sunday.

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Recently, the Twitter feed for the Embassy of Japan offered some comfort for those who won’t see the Super Bowl the same without Swift’s presence.

So, we’ve moved from probable to likely, which is nice.

Run defense could decide the winner of Super Bowl LVIII between Chiefs and 49ers

Run defense will be a crucial aspect in Super Bowl LVIII between the Chiefs and 49ers — in fact, it may ultimately decide the game.

Well, the Kansas City Chiefs are back in the Super Bowl for the fourth time in the last five years, which is pretty insane. And in Super Bowl LVIII, they’ll face the San Francisco 49ers franchise they beat 31-20 in Super Bowl LIV, overcoming a 20-10 third-quarter deficit to do it.

These two teams are decidedly different than they were four seasons ago. 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan had quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo in a 1973 Bon Griese hair shirt for most of that postseason, because Shanahan knew full well that when you put the game in Jimmy G’s hands… well, you didn’t generally want to do that. Raheem Mostert and Deebo Samuel were San Francisco’s primary rushers in that game, because the 49ers hadn’t yet made their team-defining trade with the Carolina Panthers for Christian McCaffrey. Add in a second-year quarterback in Brock Purdy who can actually hit his weight in the NFL, and this offense is far more to Shanahan’s preferences than that one was.

As for the Chiefs, there’s no more point-per-minute stuff. Tyreek Hill is out of the picture, and most of Andy Reid’s most explosive passing plays with him. The Chiefs got back to the big dance with a highly uneven receiver group, Travis Kelce finding the fountain of youth at the right time, and a Steve Spagnuolo defense that now sets the tone. There’s also the efforts of second-year running back Isiah Pacheco, who generally runs at your defense as if your defense owes him money.

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So, a point of discussion now, as it really wasn’t in that last Super Bowl between these two teams, is how the two run defenses will fare. Based on the tape and the tendencies, I would argue that the team winning that battle may well come away with the Lombardi Trophy.

Let’s dive into it.

4-Down Territory: Dan Campbell. Ravens’ offense, Kyle Shanahan, Worst of the Week

Dan Campbell, Lamar Jackson, Kyle Shanahan, and the Worst of the Week! All up in this week’s “4-Down Territory!”

Now that Super Bowl LVIII is set between the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers, it’s time once again for Doug Farrar of Touchdown Wire, and Kyle Madson of Niners Wire, to come to the table with their own unique brand of analysis in “4-Down Territory.”

This week, the guys have some serious questions to answer:

  1. Should Dan Campbell be pilloried for his fourth-down decisions?
  2. What have we learned about the Baltimore Ravens after their AFC Championship game loss?
  3. Why should Kyle Shanahan have more faith in a possible first Lombardi Trophy?
  4. What was our Worst of the Week?

You can watch this week’s “4-Down Territory” right here:

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You can also listen and subscribe to the “4-Down Territory” podcast on Spotify…

…and on Apple Podcasts.

Dan Campbell’s fourth-down decisions aren’t why the Lions lost to the 49ers

Dan Campbell made two big fourth-down decisions against the 49ers. But the analytics aren’t why the Lions lost the NFC Championship game.

NFL broadcasters talk about “analytics” all the time without understanding what that word means at any level. Generally, it’s done in a dismissive tone and with a sense of disappointment in how the game has changed — i.e., the nerds have taken over, and football is worse for it.

Not that it matters, but NFL coaches have employed analytical thinking in their in-game decision-making processes for decades. Coaches may describe it as “going with my gut,” but they also use probability and tendency to try and make the best choices possible.

In the case of Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell and his team’s 34-31 NFC Championship loss to the San Francisco 49ers, it’s Campbell who will feel the sting of the analytical naysayers all offseason long. The Lions had a 24-7 halftime lead, which they proceeded to blow in the second half. Now, the Lions’ improbable Super Bowl journey is nothing but a broken dream.

Two play calls are front of mind for most who are looking to assign blame for Detroit’s collapse. With 7:03 left in the third quarter, the Lions had the ball at the San Francisco 28-yard line. Instead of having kicker Michael Badgley attempt a 46-yard field goal to go up 27-10, the Lions went for it. Jared Goff attempted a 12-yard curl route to receiver Josh Reynolds, but Goff was pressured and threw the ball short.

And with 7:38 left in the game, the Lions had the ball at the San Francisco 30-yard line. This time, the decision instead of a 48-yard field goal try was to have Goff hit receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown on a deep crosser. Again, Goff was hurried, and again, the play didn’t work.

Now, most models favored going for it in those situations, or at least called it a relative push.

“I just felt really good about us converting and getting our momentum and not letting them play long ball,” Campbell said after the game. “They were bleeding the clock out. That’s what they do. And I wanted to get the upper hand back. And it’s easy hindsight, and I get it. I get that. But I don’t regret those decisions. And that’s hard. It’s hard because we didn’t come through. It wasn’t able to work out, but I don’t, I don’t. And I understand the scrutiny I’ll get. That’s part of the gig, man. But [it] just didn’t work out.”

My issue is not at all with the decision to go for it on those two plays. Badgley was an afterthought at kicker – he wasn’t active until Week 14 — and had attempted just one field goal of 40 or more yards this season. He made it in Week 17 against the Dallas Cowboys, but let’s stop pretending that those field goals would have been automatic. And outdoors, Badgley hadn’t made a field goal of 40 or more yards since the 2020 season.

And for the season, the Lions had converted 21 of 40 fourth-down attempts. This is who Campbell is, and this is who the Lions are.

“I loved them,” Goff said of the fourth-down decisions. “We’ve got to convert.”

My issue is with the play calls the Lions chose in those circumstances. Detroit’s run game had been dragging Steve Wilks’ 49ers defense up and down the field. For the game, Detroit ran the ball 29 times for 182 yards (a 6.3-yard average) and three touchdowns. On both of those conversion attempts, the 49ers’ desire to get after Goff would have left open gaps for Detroit’s running backs. David Montgomery had explosive running plays in this game of 14, 15 and 16 yards, which is about as consistent as you can get. This 16-yard run with 9:15 left in the game would have been pretty nifty a couple of minutes later.

On each of those runs, Goff was under center. Goff has been the NFL’s best under-center play-action passer this season, and by far the most prolific. Why would both of those conversion attempts have Goff in pistol, and the fourth-quarter attempt with Goff in empty? At least give the 49ers’ defense the possibility of a run in those situations.

So, before we chalk this all up to the alleged evils of analytics in football, we should consider that Campbell’s gambles weren’t wrong at all. It was the play calls that killed his team.

49ers rally in second half to knock out Lions

The 49ers rallied past the Lions and will face the Chiefs in Super Bowl 58

Sports history repeated itself in reverse 66 years later.

The San Francisco 49ers rallied from a 24-7 halftime deficit in Sunday’s NFC Championship Game at Levi’s Stadium.

The NFC West champions downed the Detroit Lions, 34-31, to gain a berth in Super Bowl 58 against the Kansas City Chiefs, who earlier in the day upended the Baltimore Ravens.

The first half was all Lions as they raced to the big lead. However, their coach Dan Campbell, embracing the Motown mantra of Ramblin’ Gamblin’ Man, saw his risks backfire and San Francisco capitalized.

The 49ers scored 17 points in 8 minutes of clock play in the third quarter to tie the game.

They added another 10 in the fourth quarter before the Lions could muster a lone touchdown to complete the scoring.

Christian McCaffrey rushed for 90 yards and a pair of scores.

Brock Purdy threw for 267 yards and a score.

The game came in the same part of the Golden State that in 1957 saw the Lions overcome a 24-7 halftime deficit in a playoff contest.

Detroit went on to win that game and then defeated the Cleveland Browns for their last championship.

This was a strong year for the Lions but they came up short in the NFC Championship.

49ers tie NFC Championship game 24-24, overcome 24-7 deficit

The 49ers overcame a 17-point deficit in eight third-quarter minutes to tie the NFC Championship game against the Detroit Lions.

The Detroit Lions came out opening up several cans of you-know-what against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, dashing out to a 24-7 lead at the half. But as much as Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers teams have not been known for their comebacks, something different was in the water in this game. Christian McCaffrey’s one-yard touchdown run with 3:12 left in the third quarter saw the score tied all of a sudden at 24-24.

How did this happen? The 49ers smartly got the ball into the hands of Deebo Samuel more often, and when Detroit safety Kerby Joseph was briefly injured, Brock Purdy hit Brandon Aiyuk on a 51-yard rebound catch that turned into an Aiyuk touchdown three plays later.

The two Brandon Aiyuk catches that saved the 49ers’ Super Bowl hopes

This was after a failed fourth-and-2 conversion when Lions head coach Dan Campbell got too cute, and when running back Jahmyr Gibbs fumbled the ball at his own 25-yard line, that set up McCaffrey’s touchdown run.

Now, we’ll see what the Lions are made of, and if Shanahan can overcome his unfortunate late-game history.

The two Brandon Aiyuk catches that saved the 49ers’ Super Bowl hopes

Brandon Aiyuk’s two huge third-quarter catches saved the 49ers’ Super Bowl hopes… for the moment.

Things looked pretty dismal for the San Francisco 49ers with 6:29 left in the third quarter of their NFC Championship game against the Detroit Lions. The home team was down 24-10, and they weren’t doing much.

The Lions had just lost safety Kerby Joseph to an injury, and it was apparently the time for quarterback Brock Purdy to throw deep to Brandon Aiyuk, who’s probably been the 49ers’ best downfield receiver all season long.

It worked out for a 51-yard gain, but not in the way you’d expect. Cornerback Kindle Vildor did a nice job of defending the pass, but Aiyuk caught it off the rebound, and nearly scored a touchdown.

Three plays later, Aiyuk scored the touchdown on a six-yard pass that closed San Francisco’s deficit to 24-17.

For the first time, it’s anybody’s ballgame.

Lions with 86 rushing yards, two touchdowns in massive first quarter vs. 49ers

The Lions are running all over the 49ers’ defense, and that should not come as a surprise.

The San Francisco 49ers have a great overall defense, but the Detroit Lions clearly believed that they could run the ball on that defense, and through the first quarter of the NFC Championship game, that was proven out to a ridiculous degree. The Lions had nine rushing attempts in that first 15 minutes for 86 yards and two touchdowns.

This should not come as a surprise. The Lions came into this game ranked seventh in rushing success rate, while San Francisco’s defense ranked 16th. Detroit had explosive plays on 12% of their runs, while the 49ers ranked 16th in explosive runs allowed. Perhaps most importantly, the Lions ranked ninth in yard per attempt outside the tackles (3.9), and the 49ers ranked 24th in yards per carry allowed outside the tackles.

That’s going to be crucial for the terms of this discussion.

There was receiver Jameson Williams’ 42-yard touchdown run with 13:18 left in the first quarter…

…and the Lions just pushing everybody out of the way on David Montgomery’s one-yard touchdown with 2:34 left in the first quarter.

Not to mention Jahmyr Gibbs’ ridiculous jump cut here.

Ben Johnson’s run game has been one of the NFL’s most creative and efficient all season long, so it makes sense that the Lions are dragging the 49ers around on the ground early on.