The Kansas City Chiefs are better in 13 personnel than any other NFL team, and that could be big trouble for the 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII.
When you think of the Kansas City Chiefs’ offense, a “spread-’em-out” ideology may come to mind with multiple receivers, and perhaps Travis Kelce as the only tight end on the field. But that’s not what this offense was in 2022 under offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and that’s not what this offense was in 2023, or is in 2024, under offensive coordinator Matt Nagy.
Quite the opposite, and it’s not been gradual, the Chiefs are now the kings of three-tight end sets. 13 personnel, with one back, three tight ends, and one receiver, has become the team’s primary formational constraint. This is clearly something that comes from on high, i.e., Andy Reid.
In the 2022 season, Kansas City led the league in passing out of 13 personnel, and they were ridiculously good at it. Patrick Mahomes had 74 dropbacks out of 13, completing 49 of 64 passes for 716 yards, 326 yards after the catch, nine touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 152.1, which was just about dead solid perfect. Mahomes’ EPA throwing out of 13 was 31.95, which was absolutely preposterous — Geno Smith of the Seattle Seahawks ranked second at 12.36,
This season, Mahomes has also led the NFL in 13 personnel throws, though the results haven’t been quite as productive, which is a reflection of the entire Chiefs’ passing game. Mahomes has had 50 dropbacks out of 13, completing 28 of 44 passes for 380 yards, 188 yards after the catch, two touchdowns, two interceptions, a passer rating of 87.3, and an EPA of 1.81.
Where the Chiefs have upped their 13 personnel production this season is in the run game, and especially with second-year back Isiah Pacheco. Pacheco leads the NFL in 13 personnel carries with 53, gaining 226 yards, 140 yards after contact, and scoring one touchdown. Mahomes has also run eight times for 52 yards this season out of 13 personnel, so that’s something the San Francisco 49ers will want to consider in Super Bowl LVIII.
On Wednesday, I talked with Matt Nagy about the three-tight end sets, and why the Chiefs are the runaway leaders with all that. As Nagy said, the fact that they do it so much more than any other NFL teams is its own inherent advantage.
“Number one, we feel that we have a good set of tight ends who can do different things. When you’re in 13 personnel, are they receiving tight ends, or are they blocking tight ends, or are they both? We feel like we have a good mix there. So, it starts with personnel.
“The second part is, because there aren’t a lot of teams that do 13 personnel, a lot of defensive coordinators don’t have a lot of calls for 13 personnel. So, they’ve got kind of a limited menu So now, you can do some different things. If a team shows a multitude of defenses against 13, we take a look at that and decide whether we want to go with it or not. We’ve been that way for a long time.”
Well, here’s the thing. The 49ers have faced three tight ends on just nine of their opponents’ passing attempts, with five catches allowed for 81 yards, one touchdown, no interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 122.9.
The touchdown was a 31-yarder against the Seahawks in Week 14. The Seahawks motioned tight end Will Dissly across from left to right out of a wing alignment, and this was an interesting example of another way teams can use four-strong – to gain a favorable matchup for the iso receiver on the other side. With Dissly, Noah Fant, Colby Parkinson, and running back Kenneth Walker to the right, and with Fant and Parkinson then running intermediate crossers back over, DK Metcalf had an open one-on-one with cornerback Ambry Thomas as the backside iso. The 49ers could definitely see something like that on Sunday – also, one of the ways the Chiefs stress defenses with four-strong formations is to wind at least one of their tight ends back to the other side.
In the run game, the 49ers have faced rushing attempts out of 13 personnel just 13 times for 50 yards and a touchdown. The touchdown was a 16-yard Kareem Hunt run against the Cleveland Browns in Week 6. Cleveland motioned tight end Jordan Akins across from right to left, keeping David Njoku and Harrison Bryant on the right side. Receivers Donovan Peoples-Jones and David Bell were the ones who helped crack that run open for a 16-yard touchdown.
Based on what Nagy said regarding what defenses do (or do not do) against the Chiefs’ 13 personnel packages in the pass and run games, we should probably expect to see Kansas City to turn it all the way up to 13 in the Super Bowl.
In this week’s “Xs and Os with Greg Cosell and Doug Farrar,” the guys got into why the Chiefs’ 13 personnel stuff is so effective, and what the 49ers might want to try to work against it.
You can watch the “Xs and Os” Super Bowl Preview episode here:
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