Cowboys WR Amari Cooper in Top 10 at outperforming expected catch rate

The four-time Pro Bowler has a reputation for his route running, but the numbers show he’s among the best at catching balls he shouldn’t.

Hating on Cowboys wide receiver Amari Cooper has become a busy pastime for several subsets of NFL fans. There’s the members of Raiders Nation who want to believe the silver and black dumped an underachiever just in time. There’s the Eagles and Redskins faithful swimming in sour grapes after their clubs failed to lure Cooper away. And there’s even a contingent of Cowboys fans who inexplicably don’t believe the four-time Pro Bowler is worthy of the WR1 spot in Dallas.

But numbers don’t lie. And the numbers show that Cooper is one of the best receivers in the league. One set of figures, in fact, pinpoints him as the sixth-best.

In a Monday morning rundown of the league’s top pass-catchers of 2019, NFL.com’s Nick Shook uses Next Gen Stats to compare players’ catch rate- the percentage of targets caught- to expected catch rate, or the average completion probability when targeted. Basically, did the player do better than he technically should have?

According to Shook:

“Completion probability takes into account a number of factors, including QB pressure, separation between the target and the closest defender, distance of throw, speed of the receiver and so on. From a pass-catcher’s perspective, the factors that are most important are separation, tight-window percentage, cushion (at time of snap), double-team percentage and air yards per target, among others.”

When viewed through that lens, Cooper flat-out excelled. His actual 2019 catch rate was 66.4%. His expected catch rate, though, was just 57.8%. That means Cooper outperformed expectations on his targets by 8.6%.

To put it in concrete terms, Cooper was targeted 119 times last season. He made 79 of those catches. But the data says he should have caught just 68 of them. Cooper made 11 catches he had no business making. Almost one per game. And that over-and-above mark is what puts Cooper on the list with only Michael Thomas, Tyler Lockett, Stefon Diggs, Marvin Jones, and Calvin Ridley ranked higher.

Of Cooper, Shook writes:

“Defenses liked to press Cooper on nearly one-fourth of all routes run by the receiver, but his separation at time of pass arrival (2.6 yards) falls in line with the rest of these receivers. His tight-window percentage (25.2) was third-highest, but none of his advanced metrics illustrate a receiver who was blanketed in 2019. With that said, Cooper was a receiver who made his quarterback, Dak Prescott, better last season, helping the signal-caller put together a 114.4 passer rating when targeting him. Prescott enjoyed doing that plenty, with Cooper posting the third-highest average of targets per routes run (23.8%) of this group.”

Much has been made (and rightly so) of Cooper’s perplexing tendency to shrink statistically in road games, but the math bears out that he is one of the best in the business at catching footballs during NFL games. And his on-the-job performance clearly justifies his elite payday among the league’s other highest-earning receivers.

No one in their right mind disputes Cooper’s status as one of the premier route-running technicians in the game. But in terms of catching most everything thrown his way and then some, Cooper doesn’t always spring immediately to mind, perhaps because the rare drops tend to leave a more lasting impression than the unlikely surprise grabs. It’s classic perception versus reality.

The real reality, though, is that Cooper is Top-10 caliber. And with Michael Gallup on the verge of becoming a household name and a highly-touted rookie also ready to join the party, Cooper’s stats, according to Shook, may actually improve.

“Cooper is a case that will be fascinating to watch in 2020, thanks to the addition of 17th overall pick CeeDee Lamb. Might these numbers jump with more dangerous targets available to Prescott?”

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Allen Robinson has third-most contested catches among WRs since 2018

Lost in the poor QB play in Chicago has been the impressive play by Bears WR Allen Robinson.

Lost in the poor quarterback play in Chicago has been the impressive play by receiver Allen Robinson, who in two seasons has proven to be the No. 1 receiver the Bears have been missing.

While Robinson has shown the ability to get separation and make easy catches, he’s even more impressive when it comes to challenging defenders that contest passes at the catch point.

According to Pro Football Focus, Robinson ranks third in the NFL in most contested catches since 2018, which was his first season with the Bears. Robinson’s 40 contested catches ranks just behind Atlanta’s Julio Jones and Detroit’s Kenny Golladay, who both have 43.

Most contested catches since 2018

1. Julio Jones – 43
1. Kenny Golladay – 43
3. Allen Robinson – 40 pic.twitter.com/9EhNKemPgh

— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) May 3, 2020

In 2019, Robinson was the lone bright spot on Chicago’s abysmal offense. He had 98 catches for 1,147 yards and seven touchdowns — the first 1,000-yard season for a Bears receiver since 2014.

And the kicker is, he did it with questionable quarterback play amid a struggling offense where defenders knew he was getting the ball.

Robinson, who is entering the final year of his three-year deal with Chicago, has made it clear that he’d like to remain with the Bears for the long-term. General manager Ryan Pace has confirmed there have been internal discussions regarding an extension for Robinson, and locking up Robinson should be a priority for the Bears.

Pace has a knack for extending players prior to the start of the season, including Charles Leno Jr., Akiem Hicks, Eddie Goldman and Cody Whitehair. Robinson could — and should — find himself on that list soon enough.

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Bears roster comparison: 2019 vs. 2020 offense

Let’s take a look, position by position, at how the Bears offense in 2020 compares to 2019.

With the Chicago Bears’ 90-man roster full — although, it can change at any time — we thought we’d take a look at just how much their roster has changed since about this time last season.

Starting on offense, there have been some big changes made to this roster, particularly at quarterback and tight end. Following an atrocious outing on offense in 2019, they were changes that needed to be made. Whether those changes ultimately result in a complete turnaround on offense remains to be seen, but it’s hard to imagine it could get worse than last season.

Let’s take a look, position by position, at how the Bears offense in 2020 compares to 2019.

Quarterback

2018	2019
Mitchell Trubisky	Mitchell Trubisky
Chase Daniel	Nick Foles
Tyler Bray	Tyler Bray

Heading into 2019, the belief was that Mitchell Trubisky was poised to take the next step in his young career and establish himself as the Bears franchise quarterback. Fast forward one year later, and Chicago traded for former Super Bowl MVP quarterback Nick Foles, who will battle Trubisky for the starting job in training camp and preseason. May the best QB win (and provide this defense with a little breathing room.)

The main difference is that, this year, the Bears have two quarterbacks on their roster that, for all intents and purposes, are starting quarterbacks. No offense to Chase Daniel, who was an adamant backup for the Bears. But whoever Chicago’s back-up quarterback winds up being, he could be expected to step in and not miss a beat. Despite whoever wins the starting job, you can’t say the Bears didn’t upgrade at quarterback.

Advantage: 2020

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Khalil Mack, Mitchell Trubisky land on Top 50 NFLPA sales list

Even during a down season, a couple Bears made the top 50 of the NFLPA sales list: Khalil Mack, Mitchell Trubisky and newcomer Nick Foles.

There’s no denying the passion of the Chicago Bears fanbase. Even a down season — a 8-8 record coming off a playoff appearance — didn’t stop fans from showing their love for their team.

Three Bears landed in the top 50 of the NFLPA Players Sales List. The list includes “reports sales of all officially licensed NFL player-identified merchandise,” according to the NFLPA’s official website.

Outside linebacker Khalil Mack was the Bears’ highest-ranked player landing at No. 8. Despite a disappointing outing, quarterback Mitchell Trubisky landed just outside the top 20 at No. 21.

Even new Bears quarterback Nick Foles made the list as part of the Jacksonville Jaguars, clocking in at No. 44.

Here’s a look at how the top 10 shook out, which included six quarterbacks with Patrick Mahomes taking the top spot and Mack as the lone Bear in the top 10.

Patrick Mahomes
Tom Brady
Lamar Jackson
Ezekiel Elliott
Baker Mayfield
Aaron Rodgers
Odell Beckham Jr.
Khalil Mack
Jimmy Garoppolo
George Kittle

To see the entire top 50, click here.

While it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Mack and whoever wins the starting QB job back on this list, there are some other Bears that could also crack the list in 2020, including safety Eddie Jackson — who just signed a four-year extension — and receiver Allen Robinson — who was Chicago’s lone offensive star.

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Which Saints uniform combination won the most games in 2019?

The New Orleans Saints won all three of their “Color Rush” games in 2019, and debuted a new uniform combination for the Sean Payton era.

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A number of NFL teams are debuting new uniforms this offseason, but they’re all playing catch-up to the New Orleans Saints. The Saints have one of the league’s best color palettes, embodied with a crisp set of uniforms and iconic jerseys. It’s a great compliment to the city’s character, which was reflected in a recent ranking of NFL kits.

But which uniform combination benefited the Saints the most in 2019? Here’s the full breakdown, ranked by winning percentage:

“Color Rush” alternates: 3-0 (1.000)
White jerseys, white pants: 5-1 (.833)
Black jerseys, black pants: 5-2 (.714)
Black jerseys, gold pants: 0-1 (.000)

The Saints finally gave their “Color Rush” specials the performances those terrific jerseys deserve, winning all three contests in which they were worn — including two road games with the Seattle Seahawks and the Atlanta Falcons, and an early-season prime-time matchup against the Dallas Cowboys.

Curiously, the gold pants were limited to a few preseason appearances and Week 2’s disastrous loss to the Los Angeles Rams before getting phased out. The Saints introduced white pants not long after and never went back to the gold trousers, which had been a staple over the last decade. Maybe they’ll continue to be a third-tier option in 2020.

For the curious, here’s the record for each uniform combination used in the Sean Payton era, since 2006 (not including the alternate, kind of hideous gold jerseys worn during a 2002 loss to the Minnesota Vikings, which Cameron Jordan wants to revive):

White jerseys, white pants: 5-1 (.833)
“Color Rush” alternates: 6-2 (.750)
“Black and Gold” throwbacks: 2-1 (.667)
Black jerseys, gold pants: 23-13 (.639)
White jerseys, black pants: 38-25 (.603)
Black jerseys, black pants: 41-27 (.603)
White jerseys, gold pants: 31-24 (.564)

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Cowboys were among oldest teams in 2019, but with a special catch

The 2019 Cowboys finished the regular season as one of the oldest teams in the NFL, but one veteran is responsible for much of that curve.

There’s a youth movement in the NFL. But the Cowboys seem to be trying hard to buck that trend, especially in one specific unit.

Football Outsiders last week released its 2019 report digging into the age of each roster in the league. As they have with every season since 2006, they didn’t just calculate the average age of all the the guys who are technically on the team. They charted the players’ snap-weighted age; that is, they weighted the age of each player according the number of snaps he played in the regular season.

It makes sense: if the aging veterans and hotshot rookies on a squad mainly stand around on the sidelines, it doesn’t really say anything meaningful about a team’s “average age,” at least not in the way that people usually imply. That first-year quarterback who actually starts and plays the whole season? That definitely counts toward a team being considered “young.” But a long-in-the-tooth third-string emergency backup who only ever holds a clipboard shouldn’t skew the team toward being called “old.”

The Cowboys as a whole, in 2019, were the sixth-oldest team in the league, with an average snap-weighted age (SWA) of 26.7. The league average was 26.4, a number nearly all 32 teams were fairly tightly clustered around.

Where it starts to get interesting is when SWA is broken down by unit. The SWA of the Dallas offense in 2019 was 27.0, just two-tenths of a year above the league average. That ranked 13th. The defense skewed even more toward the middle of the pack compared to the rest of the NFL; the Cowboys’ SWA on the defensive side was 26.2, 18th place against the average of 26.3.

But special teams? That unit might as well qualify for early-bird specials and senior matinee discounts.

The Cowboys’ special teamers in 2019 were the third-oldest bunch in the NFL with a SWA of 26.9. That figure is a full year above the league average. Special teams play is generally thought of as a young man’s game (think gunners), but many teams do anchor that phase of the game with a greybeard kicker…

…or a 39-year-old long snapper.

L.P. Ladouceur will embark on his 16th season as a pro in 2020. His age (he celebrated his 39th birthday in March) certainly sets the curve for the rest of the special teams players in Dallas, but his is a position where longevity is a plus, not a hindrance, and extra experience is definitely a plus.

The Cowboys special teams unit got slightly (but suddenly) older late last season with the swapping of Brett Maher for Kai Forbath, as Forbath is two years older. He and new signee Greg Zuerlein are both 32, so the winner of their competition for the upcoming season’s kicking duties won’t change that number for Dallas. With punter Chris Jones turning 31 years old, there’s a good chance that the Cowboys will remain one of the oldest special teams units in the league under John Fassel’s leadership.

The defense may see their SWA rank slide toward the older end of the list moving forward. Yes, Michael Bennett turned 34 just a few weeks after joining the Cowboys last season, but in his nine games with the team, he played just 40% of the defensive snaps. Linebacker Sean Lee will turn 34 before the season begins. Gerald McCoy is 32. Dontari Poe will blow out 30 candles before Week 1; all three will likely see high snap counts and will definitely ratchet up the SWA in 2020.

Of course, any discussion of the Cowboys and their age in 2019 has to include Jason Witten. At 37 and playing the vast majority of the team’s offensive snaps last year, he made Dallas the oldest team at tight end last season. Take him out of the equation, though, and the Cowboys come in under the league’s average SWA at every single offensive position group.

Granted, youth doesn’t automatically translate to a better football team: New England was by far the oldest team in 2019- in all three phases- and they were still, by and large, the Patriots. And three of the four youngest teams- Jacksonville, Cleveland, and Miami- didn’t really scare anybody. So maybe SWA is just interesting trivia, fodder for bar bets.

Still, 2020’s Cowboys offense should feel a lot younger. Fans will no doubt be encouraged by that. The defense may feel slightly older. Maybe some additional veteran presence there is a good thing.

In any case, the special teams will still be wearing their pants too high and yelling at whippersnappers to get off their lawn.

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Ranking each Bears’ free agency class under Ryan Pace

Bears GM Ryan Pace has had major hits and huge misses in free agency. But how does each of his FA classes stack up against one another?

There’s no doubt that NFL free agency is one of the most exciting time of the year for football fans. It’s the first major opportunity for teams to find new talent, shuffle their roster, and make the necessary changes to contend for a playoff spot in the season to come.

However, while a free agency class can take a team to the next level, another can cripple them financially and pull them down to the bottom of the division. When it comes to the Chicago Bears and general manager Ryan Pace, they’ve experienced both situations.

Pace, now in his sixth season leading the Bears, has had major hits and huge misses in free agency. But how does each of his free agent classes stack up against one another? Below is a ranking from Pace’s worst to best free agent groups between 2015 and 2019.

5) 2017 free agent class

Key hits – CB Prince Amukamara

Key misses – QB Mike Glennon, S Quintin Demps, TE Dion Sims, WR Markus Wheaton

What a group, huh? When free agency officially opened, Pace inked Glennon, Demps and Sims to three-year deals right off the bat, possibly becoming one of the worst “big three” ever assembled in sports. Glennon, signed from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, was given the opportunity to start but only lasted four games before rookie quarterback and first-round selection Mitchell Trubisky took the reins.

Demps, meanwhile, truly only had one memorable play as a Bear which took place in week one when Atlanta Falcons tight end Austin Hooper stiff-armed the veteran to the ground on his way to an 88-yard score. Demps went on injured reserve just two weeks later. Both only lasted one season in Chicago.

Sims at least made it through two seasons, but was lackluster at best. Other signings such as receiver Markus Wheaton, who caught three more passes than I did for the Bears and cornerback Marcus Cooper, who’s most memorable moment in Chicago was showboating after an interception, turning a pick-six into a pick-three.

The only true standout from the class was cornerback Prince Amukamara, who was a consolation prize for the Bears after other corners such as A.J. Bouye and Stephon Gillmore spurned them for other teams. Amukamara became a solid starter for an eventual playoff team and turned his tryout into a bigger contract. But overall, this class was a colossal failure for Pace.

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Ranking the 15 best plays of the 2019 Saints season

The New Orleans Saints made a lot of great plays in the 2019 NFL season, but these 15 highlight reel-worthy moments stood out more than most

The NFL’s calendar is just weeks away from flipping over to the 2020 fiscal year, meaning that free agency and the 2020 NFL Draft are on the horizon. For the New Orleans Saints, it’s time to finally shut the book on a highlight-filled 2019 season that, unfortunately, came up short. But we’re here to celebrate the year’s best moments.

Whittling down the thousands of snaps played by the Saints last year wasn’t easy, and this list may not jive with everyone’s expectations. So let us know what you think we got wrong, and which big plays deserved greater recognition in our Saints Forum.

Now, let’s get to it. Here’s our ranking of the 15 best Saints plays of 2019:

15. Teddy Bridgewater connects with Ted Ginn on 33-yard TD vs. Buccaneers

Ted 3@teddyb_h2o with his 3rd TD pass of the game – this time to a wide-open @TedGinnJr_19! #Saints pic.twitter.com/YDlVRFTp7n

— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) October 6, 2019

This was just a perfectly-executed play, with the route concepts opening Ginn up for a well-thrown ball from Bridgewater. It showcased everyone’s strengths — Ginn’s speed, Bridgewater’s accuracy, and Sean Payton’s clever play design against a coverage poorly-suited to defend it. It’s the sort of thing that should lead off any and all of Bridgewater’s 2019 highlight reels.

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Marcus Davenport named Saints’ most improved player of 2019

New Orleans Saints defensive end Marcus Davenport was named the team’s most improved player of 2019 by the analysts at Pro Football Focus.

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The New Orleans Saints needed a big jump in production from Marcus Davenport to justify the bold move to acquire their 2018 first-round pick, and he came through in his second season. Davenport was a force in 2019, and earned recognition from the analysts at Pro Football Focus as last year’s most improved Saints player:

The Saints’ decision to trade up to select Davenport was met with some derision at the time of the 2018 NFL Draft. Some of that may still be warranted, but for his part, Davenport is working to show that he was worth it. After a 2018 season in which he earned a 69.7 overall grade, buoyed by strong play in run defense, Davenport saw significant improvement in his second season. His pass-rush win rate rose from 13.5% to 18.4%, and he increased his raw pressure count from 28 in his rookie season to 50 last year despite missing the end of the season with an injury. Davenport also increased his run-defense grade from 76.2 to 82.4. He and Cameron Jordan form a dangerous edge duo in New Orleans.

Much of that lines up with what we’ve seen through Davenport’s first two years as a pro. His rare combination of size, strength, and speed has allowed the big defensive end to play like a naturally strong run defender, but tutelage under Jordan has done a lot to refine his game. But the Saints drafted Davenport with the expectation that he’ll grow into a serious threat as a pass rusher, and the results he showed in his second year speak for themselves. Here’s hoping he can get and stay healthy in year three.

It’ts interesting to compare Davenport’s career arc so far to similar players around the league. One of those would be Jadeveon Clowney, who the Houston Texans selected first overall back in 2014 (the Saints invested two first-round picks in Davenport in the 2018 NFL Draft). They’re both gifted athletes, with Clowney measuring at 6-foot-5, 255 pounds and Davenport towering at 6-foot-6, 265 pounds, and they’ve each dealt with serious injuries early in their careers.

Clowney was limited to just 17 games in 2014 and 2015, notching 47 combined tackles (11 for loss of yards) to go with 4.5 sacks and 8 quarterback hits. Compare that to Davenport, who’s played 26 games from 2018 to 2019 while amassing 53 combined tackles (11 for loss), as well as 10.5 sacks and 28 hits. Davenport has also forced four fumbles in that time, while Clowney didn’t produce his first turnover until his third season.

While the Lisfranc injury that Davenport suffered last season is very serious and should be the focus of his offseason, it’s worth noting that his overall trajectory is very much trending up. This is something that he can overcome, and he should only continue to develop into a more well-rounded player with more experience. Here’s hoping for a thorough and speedy recovery.

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A look back at Bears’ 2019 free agent class

Before the start of the new league year, let’s take a look back at how the Bears’ 2019 free agent class fared.

Free agency is just about one month away, and the Chicago Bears will no doubt be monitoring the open market and re-signing some of their in-house players set to become free agents.

With quarterback, tight end, linebacker and defensive back just some of the positions the Bears need to address, free agency is shaping up to be a busy one come March 18.

Before the start of the new league year, let’s take a look back at how the Bears’ 2019 free agent class fared.

WR/KR Cordarrelle Patterson

Cordarrelle Patterson garnered first-team All-Pro and Pro Bowl honors in his first season with the Bears as a kick returner. He averaged 29.5 yards per kickoff return, including a 102-yard kickoff return touchdown against the New Orleans Saints. He also led the NFL with 825 kick return yards. Patterson remains one of the game’s best kick returners, and he showed that he’s also quite the gunner on special teams.

Verdict: While Patterson saw little time in Chicago’s offense, he proved to be the versatile playmaker that the Bears needed. The aim in 2020 should be to get Patterson more involved on offense, where he made some plays when given the chance.

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