Buffalo Bills at New York Jets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Buffalo Bills at New York Jets odds and lines, with expert NFL picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Buffalo Bills (6-1) travel to New Jersey to face the New York Jets (5-3) Sunday at 1 p.m. ET (CBS). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Bills vs. Jets odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.

The Jets come into this game after laying an egg in a 22-17 Week 8 loss at home to the Patriots. QB Zach Wilson has not improved and with WR Corey Davis (knee injury) and Elijah Moore (sat Week 7 and played very little Week 8) missing time, the pass game has not had a chance to develop. The ground attack, once solid, has taken a hit with the season-ending injury (ACL) to rookie RB Breece Hall. The Jets traded for RB James Robinson (from Jacksonville) and if he can mesh with RB Michael Carter, New York could still have an outside chance to do some damage in the AFC.

The Bills on the other hand are the clear team to beat in the AFC. The Super Bowl favorites since the preseason, the Bills have done nothing to diminish the faith their fans should have in them.

QB Josh Allen has played at an MVP level, and he has not only a connection with WR Stefon Diggs but with WR 2 Gabriel Davis.

The defense, a worry with CB Tre’Davious White missing the beginning of the season, has been stellar as well. It leads the NFL in scoring defense (allowing 14.0 points per game) and with the offense being so good, this has led to a lot of lopsided victories. Buffalo beat the Green Bay Packers and QB Aaron Rodgers 27-17 last Sunday, but failed to cover as a 10.5-point home favorite — the loss handed Rodgers the first 4-game losing streak of his career.

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Bills at Jets odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 4:17 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Bills -600 (bet $600 to win $100) | Jets +440 (bet $100 to win $440)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Bills -11 (-112) | Jets +11.5 (-108)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 46 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Bills at Jets key injuries

Bills

  • OL Spencer Brown (ankle) questionable
  • LB Matt Milano (oblique) questionable
  • FS Jordan Poyer (elbow) out

Jets

  • WR Corey Davis (knee) out

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Bills at Jets picks and predictions

Prediction

Bills 31, Jets 13

Moneyline

PASS. The Bills (-600) ML price is far too risky to wager on. It’s not wise to risk 6 times your potential profit.

Against the spread

BET BUFFALO -11 (-112).

The Bills have the best offense in the NFL when it comes to yards per game (430.6) — Kansas City is 2nd (403.3) — and as mentioned, the best defense in points allowed. This is not a good combination for the Jets, who are one-dimensional.

QB Wilson has not progressed and the Bills’ pass rush will eat him alive. When he can find time to throw the ball, the Bills’ White, likely to make his 2022 debut, will be there to defend any passes. This is not a good matchup for the Jets and Bills mafia will be extremely happy with the final result.

This is a mismatch all around, making BILLS -11 (-112) my FAVORITE PLAY of this game.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 46 (-110).

Both teams like to play games Under. So far this season, these teams have played 11 of their 15 combined Under games — Buffalo is 1-6 O/U, while New York is 3-5 O/U.

The only time the Bills went Over is when they put up 41 in a 41-7 victory vs. the Titans with an O/U line of 47. While the Bills score, as mentioned, they don’t give up points on defense.

QB Allen has also not been turnover prone, meaning the Jets will need to score on long drives. Something not likely to happen against this Buffalo pass rush and secondary. UNDER 46 (-110) is the play in this one.

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