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The Boston Red Sox (19-16) open up a 2-game set against the Atlanta Braves (20-12) Tuesday. First pitch at Truist Park is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Red Sox vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: 1st meeting. Boston won 3 of 4 meetings in 2023
The Red Sox avoided a sweep over the weekend in Minnesota, cashing as a (+166) MoneyLine underdog with a 9-2 win Sunday over the Twins. The triumph snapped Minnesota’s 12-game winning streak as 3B Rafael Devers and CF Ceddanne Rafaela homered while RP Brennan Bernadino earned the win.
Atlanta returns home after dropping 5 of 6 on their West Coast trip, including a weekend sweep at the hands of the Dodgers. The Braves have scored more than 5 runs just once in the last 14 days and manager Brian Snitker says his team is an “offensive rut.”
Red Sox at Braves projected starters
RHP Kutter Crawford vs. RHP Reynaldo Lopez
Crawford (2-1, 1.56 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.07 WHIP, 2.90 BB/9 and 8.93 K/9 in 40.1 IP.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 6-2 victory over San Francisco last Wednesday
- Sports the lowest HR/FB percentage (2.0%) among 80 qualified pitchers as the 28-year-old served up a HR for the 1st time this season in his last start
Lopez (0-0, 1.50 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.00 WHIP, 3.00 BB/9 and 9.30 K/9 in 30 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 7 K last Tuesday in Seattle
- Career vs. Boston: 2-1, 4.03 ERA in 22.1 IP (6 games, 3 games started)
- The 30-year-old features a lower barrel percentage (5.4%) compared to Crawford (6.3%) this season
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Red Sox at Braves odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:29 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Red Sox +154 (bet $100 to win $154) | Braves -184 (bet $184 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the Spread (ATS): Red Sox +1.5 (-134) | Braves -1.5 (+112)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: -102)
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Red Sox at Braves picks and predictions
Prediction
Boston 4, Atlanta 3
Moneyline
BACK RED SOX (+154).
This is a nice price for an offense coming off a 9-run performance against a surging Twins team along with an SP in Crawford who allows the 2nd-lowest hard contact percentage (18.9%) among qualified pitchers. RF Tyler O’Neill has hit doubles in 3 of his last 4 games and Devers sports the 10th-highest hard contact percentage (42.9%) among MLB hitters with 60 PA vs. RHP. Boston has a good chance of being able to outhit a “slug team” that has not been doing much slugging of late as Snitker pointed out.
Run line
PASS.
I would rather take a shot on the plus money rather than lay the juice. If Atlanta gets up in the late innings against Boston’s bullpen, there is always the chance that the Braves bats can circle the water like sharks and bust out of their slump.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 8.5 (-102).
Braves 1B Matt Olson has not homered in a month, 3B Austin Riley hit only 1 HR since April 8 and reigning NL MVP CF Ronald Acuna Jr. has played in all 32 games, but has recorded only 2 HRs and 8 RBI. Atlanta will break out eventually, but don’t expect it against Crawford.
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