Beasley’s Revenge: Former Cowboys WR stars in biggest impact plays of Week 13

A look at the Cowboys’ 26-15 loss at home against the Bills, through the lens of EPA and Win Probability metrics from nflscrapR.

The Dallas Cowboys 26-15 loss against the Buffalo Bills was not the worst Thanksgiving defeat in NFL history. That belongs to the Detroit Lions, who lost 47-10 against the Tennessee Titans in 2008. However, the Cowboys’ loss on Thursday seems surreal for a team that seemingly has all the tools be one of the best in the league. The Bills played a sound football game but they benefited from some careless turnovers from the Cowboys. On top of that, head coach Jason Garrett’s unwavering trust in kicker Brett Maher has continued to hurt the team.

It was a stunning loss for the Cowboys. After a score on their opening drive their offense was non-existent. On defense they had no answers for the dynamic duo of quarterback Josh Allen and wide receiver Cole Beasley. When looking at the biggest plays in the game, this couldn’t be more apparent.

Here is a look using Expected Points Added (EPA) and Win Probability (WP) models from nflscrapR. EPA measure the value of a play based on down, distance to first downs and field position.

No. 1 Dak Prescott pass short right to Jason Witten for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN

EPA: 2.1                DAL WP Shift: 64% -> 71%

The game started out well for the Cowboys. On their opening possession they drove the ball downfield picking up 62 scrimmage yards and an additional 13 yards on penalties. The drive elapsed nine plays, but the team managed to pick up six first downs. The end result was a touchdown from quarterback Dak Prescott to Jason Witten on a well executed play-action pass.

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The score gave the Cowboys the early lead at 7-0, but it would be the last time they scored while the game remained competitive. Things only got worse from here.

No. 2 Josh Allen pass deep right to Cole Beasley for 29 yards

EPA: 4.2                DAL WP Shift: 81% -> 69%

After a successful special teams play from the Cowboys, the Bills were pinned back in their own territory with abysmal field position. They began the drive at their own 2-yard line. In spite of the circumstances, the Bills made the most of the situation. Their biggest play of the drive came on an improbable pass from Allen to Beasley.

Allen was able to generate one of the biggest plays of the game thanks to some allusive movement in the pocket to avoid DeMarcus Lawrence off the edge. He delivered an accurate pass to Beasley and the play garnered 29 yards in total.

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The Bills were ultimately forced into punting the ball on the drive, but the play was a sign of things to come.

No. 3 Allen pass short right to Beasley for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN

EPA: 2.9                DAL WP Shift: 60% -> 53%

The Bills found the end zone on their third possession. They orchestrated their biggest drive of the game, gaining 85 yards and five first downs on nine plays. The drive was capped with a 25-yard touchdown from Allen to Beasley. It was a seamless play for the Bills as Beasley found the void in the Cowboys’ soft zone defense with relative ease.

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No. 4 Prescott pass short left intended for Tony Pollard, INTERCEPTED

EPA: -4.9              DAL WP Shift: 55% -> 40%

Beginning their fourth drive of the game, the Cowboys’ WP odds stood at 53%. The game was tied late in the second quarter and both teams managed to avoid some costly mistakes to this point. However, it was the Cowboys that would commit the first turnover of the game. The play was a designed screen pass with Pollard being the intended target.

The pass might have reached Pollard, but Prescott was backpedaling and got hit by linebacker Matt Milano at the time of his release.  Following the interception, the Cowboys’ WP was 40%.

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No. 5 Prescott sacked for a 9-yard loss, FUMBLE

EPA: -5.2              DAL WP Shift: 58% -> 43%

After turning the ball over the Cowboys’ defense was able to absorb the blow. They held the Bills to minus-3 yards on the ensuing drive. The Bills settled for a 50-yard field goal attempt from kicker Steven Hauschka, but it was no good.

The Cowboys could breathe easy knowing their costly turnover didn’t result in any points scored. Unfortunately, the relief was short lived. Their next drive only lasted three plays and ended with a forced fumble from rookie defensive tackle Ed Oliver.

Prescott appeared to be locked in with Michael Gallup running an in breaking route on the right, but the play was slow to develop.

No. 6 John Brown pass deep right to Devin Singletary for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN

EPA: 3.7                DAL WP Shift: 42% -> 26%

The forced turnover from Prescott was the biggest play of the game for the Bills. They were gifted with possession at the Cowboys’ 39-yard line. Later in the drive they flexed their creativity on a play that would give them a 14-7 lead. The Bills reached into their bag of tricks with a double reverse pass play with wide receiver John Brown throwing to a wide open Singletary along the sideline.

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After the score, the Cowboys’ WP dropped to 26%. From this point on, the Cowboys failed to get a hold on the game. The Bills never relented their lead and despite their defense giving up a touchdown late in the game, it was never really a close contest.

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