The Baltimore Orioles (59-37) and Tampa Bay Rays (60-40) play the 2nd game of a 4-game set at Tropicana Field Friday. First pitch is at 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Orioles vs. Rays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Orioles lead 4-2
The Orioles outlasted Tampa in a 4-3 thriller in 10 innings Thursday to take a 1-game lead in the AL East. The win knocked Tampa out of the top spot they’ve held all year after they won their 1st 13 games to open the season. Baltimore is 8-2 over its last 10 games. The O’s are equally as tough on the road with a 29-17 mark and a 30-20 record at home.
The Rays have lost 5 straight and are just 7-13 over their last 20 games. This is the 1st real test for them this year after such a torrid start. One glaring note is they are just 14-18 in 1-run games. Their bullpen ERA is 10th at 3.82, and they will likely need to address that at the trade deadline.
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Orioles at Rays projected starters
RHP Kyle Bradish vs. RHP Zach Eflin
Bradish (6-4, 3.05 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 91 1/3 innings.
- Last 7 starts: 4-2, 1.87 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 46 K’s in 43 1/3 IP
- Last start vs. Rays: Win, 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 8 K on June 20
Eflin (10-5, 3.59 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.03 WHIP, 1.3 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 105 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 3 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 0 K Sunday at Kansas City Royals
- 3 career starts vs. Orioles: 1-2, 4.74 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 20 K in 19 IP
Orioles at Rays odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Orioles +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Rays -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles +1.5 (-155) | Rays -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Orioles at Rays picks and predictions
Prediction
Orioles 4, Rays 2
Moneyline
The O’s have a big advantage on the hill Friday as Bradish has allowed just 1 ER in 19 1/3 IP over his last 3 starts. Meanwhile, Eflin has a 4.66 ERA in his last 7 starts and has allowed at least 2 ER in each. Bradish had an ERA near 6 in May, and this is the best he has pitched in his career.
I’m taking the ORIOLES +130.
Run line/Against the spread
The O’s are 35-11 on the RL on the road, which is just crazy. Tampa is 35-16 at home overall, but just 27-24 on the RL. They’re also bad in 1-run games.
So I’ll take the ORIOLES +1.5 (-155), which seems like a bit of a bargain.
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Over/Under
The O’s are 6-3-1 O/U over the last 10 games, and Tampa is 2-8. The Over is just 4-6 over the last 10 in this matchup. The Orioles are going to score at least 3. They have done so in their last 10 games. However, with Bradish dealing on the hill, I’m not sure Tampa scores enough to get this Over the total.
I’ll LEAN UNDER 8 (-105).
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