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The Washington Nationals (27-34) welcome the Atlanta Braves (34-25) to Nationals Park Thursday for the 1st game of a 4-game series. First pitch is set for 6:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Nationals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Nationals lead 3-1
The Nationals beat the Braves in 3 out of 4 games on the road from May 27-30, each as a sizable underdog and covering in 3 of them.
Washington was swept in its last series by the New York Mets, which wrapped up with a 9-1 Mets victory Wednesday. The Nationals have lost 5 of their last 6 and have lost 4 straight at home. They are 36-25 against the spread (ATS) and sit 3rd in the NL East.
The Braves split a series with the Boston Red Sox, losing 9-0 on Wednesday. Atlanta has won 3 of its last 5 games, covering in each victory. It sits 2nd in the NL East and is 29-29 ATS.
Braves at Nationals projected starters
RHP Reynaldo Lopez vs. LHP Mitchell Parker
Lopez (3-2, 1.73 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 57 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 8 K in a 4-2 home win over the Oakland A’s Thursday
- 2024 road splits: 1-2, 2.49 ERA (21 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 19 H, 1 HR, 6 BB, 22 K in 4 starts
- Career vs. Nationals: 0-1, 13.50 ERA (4 IP, 6 ER), 2.25 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 in 1 start
Parker (4-3, 3.60 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 50 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 5 K in a 3-2 road loss to the Cleveland Guardians Saturday
- 2024 home splits: 2-0, 2.41 ERA (18 2/3 IP, 5 ER), 15 H, 3 HR, 2 BB, 18 K in 3 starts
- Career vs. Braves: 1-0, 4.26 ERA (6 1/3 IP, 3 ER), 0.79 WHIP, 8.5 K/9 in 1 start
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Braves at Nationals odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:22 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Braves -186 (bet $186 to win $100) | Nationals +156 (bet $100 to win $156)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (-110) | Nationals +1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -122 | U: +100)
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Braves at Nationals picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 4, Nationals 3
Moneyline
PASS.
The Braves are strong favorites here with Lopez on the mound, but they are too pricey to take on the moneyline at -186, especially having struggled against the Nationals in late May.
Avoid the home side’s plus-money odds as well and take them on the run line.
Run line/Against the spread
BET NATIONALS +1.5 (-110).
While Lopez has been a solid option for Atlanta, Parker has been just as good as home, having allowed just 5 ER through 3 starts. Washington is 2-1 straight up and 3-0 ATS in those starts, having allowed a combined 10 runs in those 3 games.
The Nationals have covered in Parker’s last 3 starts. Atlanta has failed to cover in 4 of its last 7 games. It is 1-2 ATS in Lopez’s last 3 starts as well. Considering those trends, back NATIONALS +1.5 (-110).
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 8.5 (+100).
The Braves have gone under in 4 of their last 6 games and have scored 4 or fewer in 4 as well. Atlanta has gone Under in 7 of Lopez’s last 8 starts and is 21-35-2 O/U on the season.
The Nationals have gone 4-4-1 O/U in their last 9 and are 27-31-3 O/U on the season. Given how consistently the Braves have gone Under with Lopez on the mound and the quality of pitching on both sides, back UNDER 8.5 (+100).
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