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The Atlanta Braves (51-41) and San Diego Padres (49-47) open a 3-game set at Petco Park Friday. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Padres lead 3-1
The Braves split a 4-game set at the Arizona Diamondbacks Monday through Thursday. They lost 1-0 as -111 favorites in the series finale as the Under (8) easily hit.
The Padres are coming off back-to-back losses to the Seattle Mariners in San Diego. After dropping the Tuesday opener 8-3, they lost 2-0 as -143 favorites Wednesday as the Under (8) cashed.
Braves at Padres projected starters
RHP Spencer Schwellenbach vs. RHP Randy Vásquez
Schwellenbach (2-4, 5.02 ERA) makes his 8th start. The rookie has a 1.27 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 in 37 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 5-1 home victory vs. Philadelphia Phillies Saturday
- 2024 road stats: 0-2, 6.89 ERA (15 2/3 IP, 12 ER), 1.47 WHIP, 7.5 K/9 in 3 starts
- Never faced Padres before
Vásquez (2-4, 4.66 ERA) makes his 13th start. The rookie has a 1.60 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 5.9 K/9 in 58 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 10-8 home win vs. Diamondbacks Friday
- 2024 home stats: 1-2, 3.41 ERA (31 2/3 IP, 12 ER), 1.42 WHIP, 5.7 K/9 in 6 starts
- 2024 vs. Braves: 0-1, 4.50 ERA (6 IP, 3 ER), 10 H, 0 BB, 2 K in 3-0 road loss May 20
- Career vs. Braves: 0-2, 4.82 ERA (9 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 1.61 WHIP, 4.8 K/9 in 2 starts
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Braves at Padres odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:26 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Braves -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Padres +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (+140) | Padres +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Braves at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 4, Braves 3
Moneyline
The PADRES (+100) have won 3 of the 4 meetings between these teams this season and will be extra motivated to bounce back after losing 4 straight home games by multiple runs. Vásquez has allowed 2 ER or fewer in 3 straight home starts, while Schwellenbach has given up 4 or more in 2 of 3 road outings this season.
BET PADRES (+100).
Run line/Against the spread
San Diego +1.5 (-165) should hit, but you’re paying more vig at this number, which makes it harder to stay profitable long term.
PASS. Bet the ML and/or total instead.
Over/Under
Vásquez has been much better at home in his career, with a 2.96 ERA at home compared to 5.11 on the road. The 25-year-old righty has allowed a total of just 3 runs over his last 3 home starts (16 1/3 IP), and the Padres offense has scored 3 or fewer runs in 3 straight games.
BET UNDER 8.5 (-115).
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