The Atlanta Braves (72-40) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (51-63) wrap up a 4-game series Thursday at PNC Park. First pitch is scheduled for 12:35 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Pirates odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Braves lead 2-1
The Braves scratched out a 6-5 win Wednesday night, taking a 2-1 series lead. Two of the 3 outings in this series have been decided by a single run and the other game was decided by 2 runs.
Atlanta has won 2 in a row after dropping 3 straight outings. The Over has cashed in 5 straight, with the Braves plating 5.0 runs per game (RPG) while conceding 6.4 RPG during the span.
The Pirates have scored 4 or more runs in each of the past 4 games, but they have dropped 2 in a row. The Bucs have coughed up 6 or more runs in 3 straight, and 5 of the past 8 games overall. The Over has cashed in Pittsburgh’s last 3 outings and in 8 of its last 11 contests.
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Braves at Pirates projected starters
RHP Bryce Elder vs. LHP Bailey Falter
Elder (8-3, 3.43 ERA) makes his 23rd start. He has a 1.23 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 in 126 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 4 1/3 IP, 7 R (5 ER), 7 H (2 HR), 3 BB, 3 K in 8-6 road loss vs. Chicago Cubs Saturday
- 2023 road splits: 4-2, 3.41 ERA (58 IP, 22 ER – 5 HR), .231 opponent batting average (OBA) in 10 starts
Falter (0-7, 4.87 ERA) makes his 9th start and 10th appearance. He has a 1.47 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 6.1 K/9 in 44 1/3 innings with the Pirates and Philadelphia Phillies.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 2 K in a 3-2 road loss in 10 innings vs. the Milwaukee Brewers Saturday in his team debut
- 2023 home splits (with the Phillies): 0-2, 5.52 ERA (14 2/3 IP, 9 ER – 3 HR), .267 OBA in 3 starts
Braves at Pirates odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:43 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Braves -210 (bet $210 to win $100) | Pirates +170 (bet $100 to win $170)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (-135) | Pirates +1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 10 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Braves at Pirates picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 8, Pirates 3
Moneyline
The Braves (-210) will cost you over 2 times your potential return, and that’s just too risky in this getaway day game.
However, the pitching advantage is squarely in favor of Atlanta with Elder, as Falter has, well, faltered, in 2023. He is winless in 7 decisions, all with Philadelphia. Falter makes his home debut in Pittsburgh, and it isn’t likely to end well against the high-octane Atlanta offense.
AVOID.
Run line/Against the spread
The BRAVES -1.5 (-135) are a better value on the run line against the winless Falter. Atlanta is 6-3 in the past 9 starts by Elder while winning each of those 6 games by 2 or more runs. So if you like Atlanta and Elder to win, you should also like it to cover the run line.
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Over/Under
OVER 10 (-110) is the lean, ever so slightly.
The Over has cashed in 5 in a row for the Braves, with the Atlanta offense plating 5 or more runs in 7 of the past 8 games. The pitching staff has coughed up 5 or more runs in 5 games in a row, too.
The Over has cashed in 3 in a row for the Pirates, averaging 6.0 runs per game (RPG), while yielding 6.7 RPG during the same span.
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