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The Atlanta Braves (74-61) and Philadelphia Phillies (79-56) play the 3rd game of their 4-game series on Saturday. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is at 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Braves lead 7-4.
The Braves, who trail the NL East-leading Phillies by 5 games and hold the final Wild Card spot in the league, have won 10 of their last 13 games. They lost the series opener Thursday but bounced back with a 7-2 win Friday.
The Phillies have lost 2 of their last 3 games but are 5-2 in their last 7 games.
Braves at Phillies projected starters
LHP Max Fried vs. RHP Zack Wheeler
Fried (8-7, 3.50 ERA) makes his 24th start. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 through 133 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 5 IP, 3 R (1 ER), 4 H, 0 BB, 7 K in 10-6 road win over Minnesota Twins Monday
- 0-1 with 6.59 ERA in 3 starts vs. Phillies this season
- 4-5 with 4.05 career ERA in 22 games (16 starts) vs. Phillies
Wheeler (12-6, 2.74 ERA) makes his 27th start. He has a 1.00 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 through 160 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No decision, 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 3-2 hone win over Houston Astros Monday
- 2-1 with 1.97 ERA in 5 August starts
- 0-1 with 1.50 ERA in 2 starts vs. Braves this season
- 12-8 with 3.07 ERA in 29 career starts vs. Braves
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Braves at Phillies odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:50 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Braves +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Phillies -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves +1.5 (-175) | Phillies -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Braves at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 4, Braves 2
Moneyline
Wheeler has been consistently great in August. He has not allowed more than 2 runs in any start this month. He has allowed 2 or fewer runs in 10 of his last 11 starts.
Fried has not been as consistent this month and has struggled against Philly this season. The Braces have lost 5 of his last 7 starts.
For the Phillies, it comes down to great pitching. They have allowed 3 or fewer runs in 7 of their last 8 wins.
With Wheeler on the mound, they look good for it, but -160 odds aren’t good enough to bet.
PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
The Phillies have not covered the spread in their last 3 games. Fourteen of their last 19 wins have been by more than 1 run.
The Braves are red-hot right now, but Wheeler is a streak-buster.
BET PHILLIES -1.5 (+145).
Over/Under
Four of Fried’s last 6 starts have had 7 or fewer total runs.
Four of Wheeler’s last 5 starts have had 7 or fewer runs.
Five of their 11 games this season have stayed Under 8 runs.
BET UNDER 7.5 (+100).
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