Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Atlanta Braves (73-60) and Philadelphia Phillies (78-55) begin a 4-game series Thursday. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is set for 6:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Braves lead 6-3

The Braves are coming off a 5-1 win as -136 favorites at the Minnesota Twins Wednesday with the Under (7.5) hitting. LHP Chris Sale earned his 15th victory (6 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 6 K), which ties him for the MLB lead in wins. The Braves got a solo home run from RF Jorge Soler and RBIs from 1B Matt Olson and LF Ramon Laureano. Atlanta has won 6 of its last 7 games.

Philadelphia had its 4-game winning streak snapped in a 10-0 loss as a +106 underdog to the visiting Houston Astros Wednesday as the total (10) pushed. RHP Taijuan Walker was rocked for 6 ER on 13 hits over 6 innings. The offense could only manage 3 hits on the day. Despite the loss, the Phillies are 44-24 at home this season.

Braves at Phillies projected starters

RHP Charlie Morton vs. LHP Cristopher Sanchez

Morton (7-7, 4.24 ERA) makes his 25th start. He has a 1.30 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 in 131 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 4-2 home victory against Washington Nationals Saturday
  • 2024 away splits: 3-3, 4.62 ERA (60 1/3 IP, 31 ER), 1.19 WHIP, 9.4 K/9 in 11 starts
  • 2023 vs Phillies: 0-1, 4.81 ERA (11 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 1.89 WHIP, 14.5 K/9 in 2 starts; hasn’t faced Philadelphia this year

Sanchez (9-9, 3.51 ERA) makes his 26th start. He has a 1.27 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 146 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 3 ER, 9 H, 1 BB, 8 K in 3-2 setback at Braves Aug. 22
  • 2024 home splits: 7-3, 2.18 ERA (86 2/3 IP, 21 ER), 0.94 WHIP, 7.9 K/9 in 13 starts

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Braves at Phillies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 11:35 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Braves +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Phillies -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread: Braves +1.5 (-160) | Phillies -1.5 (+135)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Braves at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 4, Braves 3

Moneyline

PASS.

I am going to completely stay away from the moneyline and run line because I don’t consider either of those bets to be safe. I’d rather save my money for the sure thing, which in my mind is the total.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

I’m not confident enough to take the Phillies to cover the run line, and I don’t want to buy all that juice getting the 1.5 with the Braves. I’ll look to the sure thing, the total.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 8.5 (-115).

I absolutely love this bet Thursday. The last 5 head-to-head matchups between these teams have gone under this total — comfortably. They’ve played a lot of low-scoring, tight games.

The Braves are 8-2 to the Under in their last 10 games. The Under went 2-0-1 in the Phillies’ series against the Astros Monday through Wednesday.

Morton’s last 3 starts have gone under the total. The Under has hit in 3 of Sanchez’s last 4 starts.

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