Atlanta Braves at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Atlanta Braves at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (18-9) and New York Mets (15-12) tussle Saturday in game 2 of a 4-game series in Queens. First pitch from Citi Field is slated for 4:05 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Braves lead 1-0

Atlanta took Friday’s opener 4-0 in a rain-shortened 5-inning contest. The Braves are 4-1 over their last 5 games and 11-2 this season away from home.

The Mets have lost 5 of their last 6 contests. New York pitching — usually solid — has compiled a 6.00 ERA over that span.

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Braves at Mets projected starters

RHP Spencer Strider vs. RHP Tylor Megill

Strider (3-0, 1.80 ERA) makes his 6th start of the 2023 campaign. He owns a 0.83 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 14.7 K/9 through 30 IP.

  • Posted a 4.38 ERA across 3 starts against the Mets last season
  • Has not allowed a run over his last 2 starts (14 IP)

Megill (3-1, 3.96 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has registered a 1.48 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 through 25 IP.

  • Has clocked a 3.24 ERA over his last 5 starts against Atlanta (2021-22)
  • Struggled on the Mets’ April 14-23 west coast road trip, allowing 7 runs on 13 hits and 5 walks over 9 innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants

Braves at Mets odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:48 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Braves -162 (bet $162 to win $100) | Mets +136 (bet $100 to win $136)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (+108) | Mets +1.5 (-130)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Braves at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 5, Mets 3

Moneyline

Give the Braves a big advantage on the mound in this one, more so than what shows in surface ERAs. Strider has been ultra-consistent so far and has the more supportable numbers. Megill has been buoyed by a .274 batting average on balls in play and a lofty strand rate.

Give Atlanta an edge in the bullpen as well. Both back ends are well-rested after Saturday’s Little League hours, but like Megill, the New York ‘pen has been aided by generous rates around the margins.

Consider split action on a favorably priced Braves team: perhaps half on the moneyline and half on the run line. BACK ATLANTA (-162), but move fast on this one before it takes on any more juice.

Run line/Against the spread

The Braces have won 7 of their last 8 against the Metropolitans. Six of those wins were by multi-run margins — 4 coming by 3 or more runs.

New York has a lackluster .690 OPS at home.

TAKE THE BRAVES -1.5 (+108).

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Over/Under

Multiple actual-vs.-expected-production factors fall on each side of this equation. AVOID.

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