The Atlanta Braves (17-9) and New York Mets (15-11) open up a 4-game set at Citi Field Friday. First pitch is at 7:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Mets won 10-9 last year
The Braves took 3 of 4 from the Miami Marlins, but dropped Thursday’s game 5-4. They were swept by the Houston Astros earlier in the week. Atlanta is 5-5 in its last 10. The Braves have thrived on the road, though, at 7-2 thus far.
The Mets are just trying to tread water until ace Max Scherzer‘s 10-game suspension is up. They snapped a 4-game losing streak with a 9-8 win over Washington Thursday. The Mets sit 2 games behind the division-leading Braves and are 5-4 at home this season.
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Braves at Mets projected starters
LHP Max Fried vs. LHP David Peterson
Fried (1-0, 0.60 ERA) makes his 4th start this season. He has a 0.93 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 in 15 IP.
- Last start vs. Houston Astros Sunday: 6 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 5 K
- Last 5 GS vs. Mets: 3-2, 2.79 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 25 K in 29 IP
Peterson (1-3, 7.36 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.64 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 in 25 2/3 IP.
- Last start vs. San Francisco Giants Saturday: 5 IP, 7 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 8 K
- Last 5 GS vs. Braves: 2-2, 5.40 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 27 K in 23 1/3 IP
Braves at Mets odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:22 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Braves -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Mets +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (+125) | Mets +1.5 (-155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Braves at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 5, Mets 3
Moneyline
The Braves have a decided advantage on the rubber, and they have won the last 4 meetings between the teams. Peterson has given up at least 5 runs in 3 of his 5 starts. That will be the difference in this game.
Take the Braves -140 or PASS and look to the spread.
Run line/Against the spread
Of the last 10 meetings between the clubs, the Braves have taken 6, and 9 of the 10 games ended in multiple-run finals. The Mets have the bullpen edge at 12th with a 3.55 ERA, and Atlanta is 17th at 3.88. Atlanta should get to Peterson as they’re 6-3 against lefties while the Mets are 5-6.
Take the BRAVES -1.5 (+125).
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Over/Under
There’s a 60-percent chance of rain, and it’s a chilly 53 degrees with a 14-mph wind blowing in from right-center. Those are risks with going Over here. But the Over is 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings in New York and 9-3-1 in the last 13 overall. The Braves have cashed an Over in 4 straight overall, on grass and against NL East foes.
If this number reaches 8, I’m out.
LEAN OVER 7.5 (-115).
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